Archive for February 2009

  • 23 Feb 2009 at 7:38 AM

Opening Bell: 02.23.09

Picture 733.pngUBS Shares Dive On Tax News (Reuters)
The willingness of UBS to give the United States the names and money in settlement form has pissed off investors – though I can’t imagine why – and led to calls for the resignation of UBS leadership from some parliamentarians. It’s funny how short memories are, as Reuters has it the settlement was backed by the Swiss government.
Citi Scammed By Nigerians. Seriously. (NYT)

Swindles in which someone overseas seeks access to a person’s bank account are so well known that most potential victims can spot them in seconds.
But one man found success by tweaking the formula, prosecutors say: Rather than trying to dupe an account holder into giving up information, he duped the bank. And instead of swindling a person, he tried to rob a country — of $27 million.
To carry out the elaborate scheme, prosecutors in New York said on Friday, the man, identified as Paul Gabriel Amos, 37, a Nigerian citizen who lived in Singapore, worked with others to create official-looking documents that instructed Citibank to wire the money in two dozen transactions to accounts that Mr. Amos and the others controlled around the world.
The money came from a Citibank account in New York held by the National Bank of Ethiopia, that country’s central bank. Prosecutors said the conspirators, contacted by Citibank to verify the transactions, posed as Ethiopian bank officials and approved the transfers.

Slumdog Millionaire Big Winner (CNBC)
The Oscars are a huge event for millions yearly, and given the recent downturns in the market and shortages in liquidity the timing seems pretty good – if only there were weekly events like this to keep consumers interests off daily happenings. Aside, Slumdog Millionaire seems to have taken the night by storm (though I’m not sure that was unexpected..) and I have it on good authority that Penelope Cruz was just hot enough to buckle your knees a little.
Also, importantly, CNBC has it that “Madea Goes to Jail” has locked up number 1 at the box office.
East Europe Looks For More Money (WSJ)
“European leaders called for doubling the International Monetary Fund’s war chest to $500 billion for bailing out financially stricken nations, amid new signs that Europe’s former Communist east is sliding into a full-blown crisis.
Europe’s developing economies are facing their worst economic trauma since the fall of the Berlin Wall 20 years ago. Capital is fleeing Europe’s east, sending currencies sliding and threatening the region with deep declines in output and employment, and a deluge of debt defaults. Poland’s industrial output in January fell at a painful 15% annual rate; its currency last week hit an all-time low against the Swiss franc.”
Of Budgets And Tax (FT)
“His first budget, released on Thursday, will show the deficit falling to $533bn (€415bn, £369bn) by fiscal year 2013, compared with an inherited deficit aides estimate at $1,300bn.
[...]
Revenue from the sale of emissions permits under a cap-and-trade system will help pay for the deficit reduction, along with reductions in spending on the war in Iraq and higher taxes on wealthy individuals and businesses.
[...]
The budget will allow the Bush tax cuts for those earning more than $250,000 to expire after 2010. The top marginal income tax rate will rise to 39.6 per cent. The top capital gains tax rate will be set at 20 per cent.
However, hedge fund and private equity executives will be taxed on “carried interest” – their share of profits on investments – at the higher income tax rate rather than the lower capital gains tax rate as at present.”
SEC Faces Scrutiny Over Trading Inquiry At Lehman (NYT)
“In a letter sent to the commission last Thursday, Charles E. Grassley, the Iowa Republican who is the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, asked Mary L. Schapiro, the chairwoman of the S.E.C., whether it had followed up on allegations that were brought to its attention last spring involving a unit at Lehman Brothers. Employees in the unit, known as the Product Management Group, appear to have tipped off clients and traders about the content of the firm’s research reports before they were released, a former Lehman analyst said.
[...]
According to the letter, the documents provided by Mr. Parmigiani indicate that officials in Lehman’s Product Management Group routinely received research reports before they were made public. The case also raises questions of whether the content or gist of the reports was disseminated to select traders in advance.”

Continue reading »

  • 22 Feb 2009 at 10:14 PM

MWA: It’s Official

Picture 758.pngWho wants somea this?

Dear Clients and Friends,
Today, we are proud to announce the opening of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, LLC.
Our new firm combines a unique approach of macro outlook, strategy, and company specific research. In addition to our signature style of thematic based industry analysis with expanded products, we will provide increased and unparalleled access to corporate management, government officials, regulators and thought leaders for a best in class client experience.

Continue reading »

Citigroup Inc. is in talks with federal officials that could result in the U.S. government substantially expanding its ownership of the struggling bank, according to people familiar with the situation.
While the discussions could fall apart, the government could wind up holding as much as 40% of Citigroup’s common stock. Bank executives hope the stake will be closer to 25%, these people said.
[...]
Under the scenario being considered, a substantial chunk of the $45 billion in preferred shares held by the government would convert into common stock, people familiar with the matter said. The government obtained those shares, equivalent to a 7.8% stake, in return for pumping capital into Citigroup.
The move wouldn’t cost taxpayers additional money, but other Citigroup shareholders would see their shares diluted. A larger ownership stake by the federal government could fuel speculation that other troubled banks will line up for similar agreements.
Bank of America Corp. said Sunday that it isn’t discussing a larger ownership stake for the government. “There are no talks right now over that issue,” said Bank of America spokesman Robert Stickler. “We see no reason to do that. We believe the goal of public policy should be to attract private capital into the bank, not to discourage it.”–WSJ

  • 20 Feb 2009 at 5:13 PM

Write-Offs: 02.20.09

$$$ The Hamptons Half-Price Sale [WSJ]
$$$ Personal Ponzi schemes [NYT]
$$$ Wall Streeters’ Lifestyle Modified, Slightly [Cityfile]

warrenbuffettwasrobbed.jpgBerkshire, once again, laboring under the cloud of the long dated index puts the firm has sold, has hit five year lows. The fear is that collapsing indexes, against which Berkshire has written a number of long dated puts to unknown counterparties (-cough- Goldman -cough-) will cause writedowns in the coming quarterlies. True, Berkshire doesn’t have to pay out on these instruments until 2019 at the earliest, but that’s not stopping the panic and it drove Berkshire Class A shares down to $73,677.30 this afternoon. Shares have since recovered some, but the cloud lingers.
As we’ve mentioned before, the options are European style (i.e. cannot be exercised before the expiration date) and Berkshire is apparently not required to put up collateral based on the price of the options or their underlying, but rather only in the event the firm itself suffers some sort of impairment. (There aren’t a lot of details here, but we suspect this means a credit downgrade or a significant cash crisis). In a way, this has made Berkshire stock a proxy for global index expectations. Insofar as Charlie and Warren don’t care about stock price, this probably doesn’t mean much- except that now might be a good time to buy back some stock.
Buffett’s Berkshire Drops to Lowest in Five Years [Bloomberg]

Picture 751.png

To my teammates:
Public debate on the subject of potentially nationalizing some banks continues to put great pressure on our stock. And yet, our company continues to be profitable. I see no reason why a company that is profitable, with capital and liquidity levels that are very strong, and that continues to lend actively, should be considered for nationalization. Speculation about nationalization is based on a lack of understanding of our bank’s financial position as well as a lack of appreciation for the adverse ramifications for our customers and the economy.
Bank of America does not need any further assistance today, and I am confident we will not need any further assistance in the future. I believe our company has more than enough capital, liquidity and earnings power to make it through this downturn on our own from here on out.
There is no question that the recession is continuing to worsen and that rising credit costs will continue to put great pressure on our ability to generate earnings. But here’s the good news: Your hard work is producing results in businesses all across the company.

Continue reading »

  • 20 Feb 2009 at 3:55 PM

SO ZIP THE LIP

Steve Liesman reports that the Treasury, too, has heard the nationalization rumors and wants you to know that they “should not [be] regarded as an indication of administration’s policy” and to please remember that T. Geith has previously stated that “we will preserve a financial system that is owned and managed by the private sector.”

As you’ve likely heard, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said earlier that the administration believes a “privately held US banking system is the correct way to go.” There’s been a lot of speculation as to what he really meant when he said that. A lot people, who are not down with nationalization are all, high-five! Others, are more like, he’s the Press Secretary, not T. Geith, this means jack. So:

Continue reading »

But, but… we thought liquidity wasn’t a problem?

CNBC stuck Dick Bove and Cramer on the tube and primed the nationalization pump. “Is it possible in your view that the U.S. Government could nationalize some banks?”
Yeah, pretty much not. If by “nationalization” we mean a total takeover, just the debt burden makes the prospect unlikely, sayeth the talking heads.
Choice Cramer Quote: “It’s quite obvious that Tim Geithner has disappeared.”
I’d start looking on Sir Allen’s private island.
Timmeh- if you’re out there… and if you are thinking about skipping town (not at all a bad idea) may we recommend a helpful service journalism piece?
Cramer On Bank Nationalization [CNBC]

Bloomberg reports that Dallas-based Highland Capital has shot for and scored the trifecta: the firm will be closing its third fund since October. This time its the CDO Opportunity Fund LP, which was “wiped out by losses on high-risk debt securities” and will be wound down, with remaining assets being distributed to creditors, and sad trombones being distributed to shareholders. According to those in charge of the we lost all your money letter, the matter of insolvency occurred due to “the unprecedented market volatility and disruption to the financial system,” which sounds familiar because its what they said when they closed the Highland Credit Strategies Fund and the Highland Crusader Fund.