• 09 Apr 2009 at 3:15 PM

Fill Your Wells

Is anyone else alarmed that Wells Fargo is up nearly 30% on “pre-earnings guidance?” The trouble, of course, with pre-earnings anything is that the devil is in the details. In keeping with our “it’s all a farce” theme today, we cannot help but wonder after the market that hops on so thin a promise with such enthusiasm. Certainly, there are no signs of the sort of capitulation that we expect will be required to really see “the bottom.” But, then, what do we know? We thought the First Analyst’s call was folly, before we saw the wide-ranging array of information distorting programs and regulations that would be fired off in support of the upward charge.
But Wells really does frighten us, as does the desperation of the market to seize on such news with such gusto. Are we just curmudgeons unpatriotically decrying the inevitability of the great reflation?
Wells Fargo Shares Skyrocket on Earnings Pre-Announcement [Dividend.com]
Update: Minutes later, the Journal has it: Is All Really Well for Wells? [The Wall Street Journal]

Comments (39)

  1. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:19 PM

    Thanks for posting this, I have been bitching about “fake earnings” all morning. Followed by a tirade that this market is yet again a house of cards built with shoddy Chinese Drywall.

  2. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:19 PM

    Can’t wait to see the details… Writing up junk cause FASB are a bunch of P*ssies…
    Wonder how much of this is a reaction to the recent Whitney / Mayo reports + the Buffet Downgrade too…
    I’m not buying it.
    Curtis

  3. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:19 PM

    did they get a payout as an AIG counterparty?

  4. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:23 PM

    I hate to say the obvious, EP, but doesn’t that imply you believe that the reasons immediately assigned by CNN or somebody for why the market goes up or down any given day are in fact the reasons?

  5. Posted by Equity Private | April 9, 2009 at 3:28 PM

    “Posted by guest, Apr 09, 2009 3:23PM
    I hate to say the obvious, EP, but doesn’t that imply you believe that the reasons immediately assigned by CNN or somebody for why the market goes up or down any given day are in fact the reasons?”
    No, you’re right. A 30% gain immediately after the announcement is just noise in the data.

  6. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:29 PM

    mr buffett prevails?

  7. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:29 PM

    while I appreciate the write-up I find it interesting that EP is the one behind it. What time will you release the “Obama portfolio” numbers? While we are on the topic of inflated bullshit numbers that mean nothing and only ?
    huh EP…?

  8. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:31 PM

    adding the rest of my senatce from 7
    “only…obfuscate the truth about the market”

  9. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:37 PM

    DID THEY GET A PAYOUT AS AN AIG COUNTERPARTY??

  10. Posted by Equity Private | April 9, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    “What time will you release the “Obama portfolio” numbers?”
    After closing. Like always. Do you not have enough data on that point to draw some conclusions, or are you just terminally unobservant?

  11. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    @7- really? you’re comparing EP’s joke to Wells’ expected earnings and the ensuing euphoria?

  12. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:42 PM

    The federal bailout of insurance giant American International Group (AIG) has benefited at least two dozen US and foreign financial institutions who collected some $50 billion (Dh183.5bn), media reports say.
    Citing a confidential document and people familiar with the matter, The Wall Street Journal said recipients of AIG money include Goldman Sachs Group and Germany’s Deutsche Bank, each of which received roughly $6bn in payments between mid-September and December 2008.
    Also receiving AIG money last year were Merrill Lynch, now part of Bank of America Corp, French bank Societe Generale and, to a lesser extent, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland Group, Wells Fargo, Calyon, Barclays, Rabobank, Danske, Wachovia, Bank of America, and Lloyds Banking Group and HSBC Holdings, the newspaper said
    Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs declined to comment when contacted. Bank of America, Calyon, and Wells Fargo, which has absorbed Wachovia, could not be reached for comment.

  13. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:44 PM

    ty @ 12, i guess the answer is: probably

  14. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:45 PM

    I heard WFC got a fantastic gold star grade on Timmy G’s stress test!
    Way to go Wells! Keep on pretending Golden West and Wachovia don’t exist!
    Nothing to see here!

  15. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:45 PM

    What the hell is going on with BOA?

  16. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:49 PM

    @EP
    It’s so very sexy when you castrate the masses; do keep up the show.

  17. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:52 PM

    Can it with all the “we” talk EP. I don’t come here for someone’s market opinion, and that’s what you keep giving us. It’s not an analysis site, it’s a news and gossip site. There’s a very good reason for that.
    More Bess please.

  18. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 3:52 PM

    @4&5
    Think you guys are talking about 2 different things? 4 seems to be focusing on the broader market, 5 & the post seems to be focused on wfc itself. both are valid points if taken in that light: market was probably going to run today anyway, though wfc helped. the individual stock price was obviously helped by the news (if I’m wrong about what you were trying to say 4, well then….yeah….you’re on your own….)

  19. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 9, 2009 at 3:58 PM

    @17
    related
    the only opinions on the market that count are those that actually coincide with risk…
    buy puts on financials in your PA, publicize the positions, and then I’ll actually value your thoughts

  20. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:10 PM

    It is, it isn’t, true not true, Jesus, if you assholes were so fucking omniscient you wouldn’t be loitering here with people like me.
    The whole thing is a fucking casino and you try to rationalize the outcome.

  21. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:14 PM

    Ep- if we all went out an bought based on the Obama portfolio?
    Of course we wont because not enough people read this to matter but if they did…?

  22. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:16 PM

    @19- once again, more retarded commentary by seaman…”buy puts on financials in your PA, publicize the positions, and then I’ll actually value your thoughts”…and who, among people who share thoughts publicly, does this, exactly?

  23. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:18 PM

    @21, you really don’t get it, do you?

  24. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 9, 2009 at 4:32 PM

    @22
    really?

  25. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:35 PM

    @seaman- I was asking you a question. do you have answer, or is “really” the best you can do?
    -22

  26. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:45 PM

    @21 maybe you dont get it. Your mother owes me 5 bucks and I want my sox back…
    -21

  27. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 4:45 PM

    @23 maybe you dont get it. Your mother owes me 5 bucks and I want my sox back…
    -21

  28. Posted by Anal_yst | April 9, 2009 at 5:04 PM

    I really just hope the above commenters who don’t seem to “get” the “Obama Portfolio” are just joking, or being unhumorously sarcastic…

  29. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 5:06 PM

    @ 26/27 = fail
    - not 23

  30. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 9, 2009 at 5:36 PM

    @25
    I hate to break the news, but almost everyone on any soapbox is either an asset manager talking his / her book (even if via platitudes about general market conditions), or an economist talking his / her politics.
    Then, of course, there are “journalists”, who cover the opinions of these other folks.
    Better put, there’s earthquakes and there’s seismographs. When a seismograph has an opinion on the right way to make mountains, things get funny.

  31. Posted by guest | April 9, 2009 at 7:35 PM

    I want to fight you Bodine.

  32. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 9, 2009 at 7:58 PM

    @31
    i could easy be convinced to fight anyone on this board

  33. Posted by Investorcluzo | April 9, 2009 at 8:19 PM

    interesting that they tout a 4.1% net interest margin, yet in the 4th quarter they reported a NIM of 4.83% (although that didn’t include wb). then the charge-off number looks suspect. last quarter the combined entity had $6.1 billion in charge-offs, this quarter they took just $3.3 billion. let’s be clear, this is based on management judgment. it’s not clear to me that anything happened to make credit quality better in the first quarter – last I checked unemployment continued to tick up month after month since december. then there is the pre-tax provision of only $9.2 billion. the pre acquisition number for “legacy” wells was $8.4 billion in the fourth quarter (the addition of wb almost doubled their loan book). finally, it’s quite remarkable that these guys could grow their tce ratio from 2.38% to “over 3.1%” in one quarter. that is quite a feat, unless the analysts had the tce calc wrong. something indeed is rotten in san francisco. I anxiously await the details – management is clearly playing games here to (a) squeeze the shorts (which they did, and boy did they ever) and (b) bet that they can “out-earn” the defaults that are coming down the pike. well, they got me given that my put options are going to expire next week. however, I have a feeling there will be a shoe dropping before the end of the year (or perhaps we have a little case of mark-to-magic accounting). this is a little bear market bounce and when they go to raise capital, the stock will take another hit – there is no reason this bank should trade at 2x tangible book…

  34. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 9, 2009 at 9:19 PM

    @31
    http://www.trinityboxing.com/
    These guys are friends. If you want, I can have them setup a charity match, where we throw down, and perhaps give the proceeds (based on Dealbreaker betting) to your favorite pro gay marriage alliance etc.
    Let me know. You’re the tough guy.

  35. Posted by Investorcluzo | April 10, 2009 at 12:09 AM

    let’s get ready to ruuuuummmmble! ooh, I like this…

  36. Posted by guest | April 10, 2009 at 9:01 AM

    The short interest remains at record highs, which is extremely bullish.
    Good luck with your fuctarded bet that trillions in stimulus and zero rates won’t lead to growth – you’ll need it day traders who pretend to work “on the Street” (although I guess trainee at Bear for a few months also counts….suck it short bitches – and dont forget to swallow!)
    Fuck you.

  37. Posted by guest | April 10, 2009 at 10:17 AM

    Semen @ 34: You might be surprised at the number of gay guys that box at Trinity.

  38. Posted by Seaman Bodine II | April 10, 2009 at 12:15 PM

    @37
    and…

  39. Posted by guest | April 10, 2009 at 2:45 PM

    @36 – wtf are you talking about? you sir, are the FUCKTARD. I’m sure you rode the stock from 40 down to 20, how’s that working out for your PA? assclown. back to yahoo finance or fixing blackberries in the backoffice.

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