Green shoots or not, recovery is not quick or easy, at least if the survey by the Wall Street Journal bear any weight. (Or at least, bear more weight than the Administration). To wit:
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn, but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.
“In general, I think it will be a subdued recovery,” said Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp.
On average, the 52 economists who participated in the survey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract 1.4% at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the current quarter, compared with the 6.1% drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter, with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.
Guesses abound, and we aren’t particularly sure we believe anyone anymore. (Yes, we know, that’s very Taleb of us). Still, we are suspicious. Given the potential for downside, and the painful unemployment numbers that abound, it is hard to be bullish. But, then, we are permabears at heart.
Economists See Long Road to Recovery [The Wall Street Journal]
Recovery in autumn my arse. With households mired in debt, unemployment on the rise, and higher taxes, this bitch is sinking. Eight percent unemployment is the new killin’ it.
The next recovery is not going to come until the next scam is invented. It was the explosion of consumer credit in the 80′s, dot com in 90′s and housing in the 00′s. Why else would the economy of the US, which is in no way special with regard to population growth, natural resources, etc., grow?
The folks over at Bridgewater maintain that the Fed can achieve any nominal GDP (growth) it wants. I’m inclined to agree.
They ever publish the underlying data from these “Surveys?” I’d like to see what a rolling 8 quarter graph looks like vs. actual, and I’d bet its a freaking joke (shocker, right?)
@2, so you are saying all the economic progress we’ve made since 1979 is just a big lie? Okay
Economic progress as measured by what metric?
There have been advancements in technology and worker productivity but other areas such as real per capita income have been stagnant for decades now.
The S&P 500 hasn’t moved in 10+ years.
The trade deficit has exploded to over 6% of GDP.
Total govt debt exploding to over $11 billion and counting ($11,000,000,000)
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
New global marketplace with cutthroat competition aimed at the US. One-way-street trade agreements where our markets are open and theirs are highly regulated via tariff and quota (japan & china)
For the vast majority of average americans (including everyone on this wonderful forum) the situation has arguably deteriorated since we became a debtor nation.
The only positive since the depression days is that the Red Sox finally ‘reversed the curse’.
WSJ Economists surveys are notoriously useless. But everybody knows that, right?
@6
missing 3 zeros there.
$11 trillion
11,000,000,000,000.00
@2
You are a dolt. Only the last 8 years is partly applicable there. Nonetheless, I hear the tinfoil market is overbought. Can I short you?
@7
Yes, because they the bulk of the people they asked are already biased by their job positions towards positive forecasts.
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