Picture 1611.pngAhead of the 10AM moment of truth, make your best guess now, Price Is Right style. Closest without going over will receive your choice of either a) a DealBreaker mug or b) a headshot signed by Charlie Gasparino. For reference, prosecutors want 150, Team Bernie wants 12.
Oh, just so you know:

In a letter to the court, Ira Sorkin, Madoff’s attorney, made an initial recommendation of a 12-year prison term, one year short of what Sorkin asserts to be Madoff’s life expectancy. What the letter does not point out — but what Judge Chin surely knows — is that a sentence of 12 years would actually only add up to about 9 years in federal prison. Here’s the math: Madoff has served over 3 months already, and under the federal Bureau of Prisons rules, he gets a 15% reduction for good time, which could deduct about 21 more months from the sentence. Finally, under the recently enacted Second Chance Act, he could even serve the last year of his term in home confinement if a pilot program becomes the norm — leaving about 9 years in federal prison.

Update: Judge Chin has put it out there that the federal probation department is recommending 50 years, without commenting whether or not he feels that’d be a reasonable sentence or if they ought to GTFO.

Comments (104)

  1. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:40 AM

    I’ll start by guessing 25 years.
    ~J. Skilling

  2. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:40 AM

    69, dude!

  3. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:41 AM

    With a statistically significant 425 votes cast in the FINalternatives/Bernie blog poll, 58.8% of readers are guessing that Bernard Madoff will be sentenced to the big house for more than 50 years. All these talking heads and lawyers speaking with the Wall Street Journal have him getting a maximum 30.
    I guess we’ll find out circa 50 minutes from now.
    Last chance to Vote: http://www.finalternatives.com/node/8337

  4. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:43 AM

    150

  5. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    140 years with no congigual visits.

  6. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    @3 we’re voting here, but thanks.

  7. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    25

  8. Posted by Clown Capital | June 29, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    20 years max. He probably won’t live to see it anyway…

  9. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:44 AM

    in the butt bob.

  10. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM

    99

  11. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM

    holy fuck I want that signed headshot so bad!

  12. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM

    29 years

  13. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM

    19 years, out in 12, dead in 12.5.

  14. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:47 AM

    35 years….
    see ya in hell Bernie!
    CSWTF

  15. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:47 AM

    How ’bout they just get medieval on his ass?

  16. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:47 AM

    @6 — screw the mug, we’ve got real payouts here: http://bernard-madoff-scam.blogspot.com/

  17. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:48 AM

    I will guess 100 years.
    ~Bernie Ebbers

  18. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:48 AM

    50 years.

  19. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:49 AM

    30

  20. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:49 AM

    29 yrs…
    tf1

  21. Posted by merkin capital partners | June 29, 2009 at 9:49 AM

    30

  22. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:50 AM

    Time served. Please, Dear God.
    -Sir Alan

  23. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:50 AM

    40 years.

  24. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:50 AM

    62

  25. Posted by Meatbone9 | June 29, 2009 at 9:51 AM

    112 years

  26. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:51 AM

    death by firing squad

  27. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:52 AM

    @24…..beat me to it. Well played sir/madam!!

  28. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:53 AM

    He should pay back his debts by working in one of those massage parlors he likes so much.

  29. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:54 AM

    75

  30. Posted by wcburrs87 | June 29, 2009 at 9:55 AM

    67 years, Bob.

  31. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:55 AM

    50 yr. sentence, although his defense will appeal and eventually get that number lowered.

  32. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:56 AM

    15.
    LA

  33. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:56 AM

    27 years!

  34. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:56 AM

    6 zillion years.
    –ruth

  35. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:56 AM

    I still think he’s innocent.
    -walter noel

  36. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:58 AM

    27 years!

  37. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:59 AM

    34 years!

  38. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:59 AM

    37 years – judge has to walk the line

  39. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 9:59 AM

    a grillion years

  40. Posted by dubs | June 29, 2009 at 10:00 AM

    102

  41. Posted by Investorcluzo | June 29, 2009 at 10:00 AM

    bob, given his life expectancy of 83 years, the 15% discount for good behavior, I’ll go with 24 – 2x team bernie (and one less than team ebbers).

  42. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:01 AM

    @37…..well played, intellectually illuminating as well! Kudos!

  43. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:01 AM

    1 year

  44. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:02 AM

    19 years

  45. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:02 AM

    150

  46. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:03 AM

    25 years and don’t forget to have your pets spayed and neutered.

  47. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:04 AM

    25 years, 5 months and 13 days

  48. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:07 AM

    1 year with Dennis Kneale!

  49. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:07 AM

    I sentence you to be continuously blown by Toothy Ruthie Madoff until all of the skin is torn torn torn from your soul-less prick.
    BOOM!

  50. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:08 AM

    87.
    ROK

  51. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:08 AM

    House Arrest.
    Sandra Manzky

  52. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:11 AM

    31

  53. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:11 AM

    let’s split the difference, 81 years.
    jfh/msk
    ps: if it’s federal pound me in the ass prison he’s dead in 5.

  54. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:12 AM

    1 hour of solitary confinement with Dennis Kneale.
    –Sue Herera

  55. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:13 AM

    20 years of community service. Assisting the SEC investigating fraud. Because we can’t find our ass with both hands.
    Mary Shapiro

  56. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:13 AM

    Flogged around the fleet
    Caning, singapore style
    bastinado
    midnight express baby

  57. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:13 AM

    One year living with Hank Paulson.

  58. Posted by Revmachine21 | June 29, 2009 at 10:14 AM

    23 years

  59. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:15 AM

    60 years, als referred to as MJ+10

  60. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:19 AM

    I think he should get 6 months home confinement, 1 year probation and banned from the security business for 5 years.
    – Arthur Samberg

  61. Posted by merkin capital partners | June 29, 2009 at 10:20 AM

    damnit, 2 30′s at 9:49?
    32!

  62. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:20 AM

    40

  63. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:20 AM

    69, with a guy named Brucie.

  64. Posted by Investorcluzo | June 29, 2009 at 10:21 AM

    are we going to get one of those martha stewart style circus shows once the verdict is read? you know, with the crazy interns running out of the courthouse with poster boards. because that would be fun.

  65. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:21 AM

    @62 dont forget 3 weeks community service, this was a very serious offense

  66. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:22 AM

    29

  67. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:23 AM

    1 week of listening to me speak.
    –bartiromo

  68. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:23 AM

    40 years

  69. Posted by daytraitor | June 29, 2009 at 10:24 AM

    70 years.

  70. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:25 AM

    My prediction? Pain
    Also, I bet no #s, they give him life.

  71. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:25 AM

    My prediction? Pain
    Also, I bet no #s, they give him life.

  72. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:25 AM

    jesus fuck how can I make that headshot mine?

  73. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:26 AM

    My prediction? Pain
    Also, I bet no #s, they give him life.

  74. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    The man is a financial genius. He is going to be the new National Health Czar.
    Barack

  75. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    For some reason, I think Ponzi boy can’t wait for a little A2M action upstate.

  76. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    I sentence him to a life where the only thing he can read is posts by Greg Blanus.

  77. Posted by SS Minnow | June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    52

  78. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    @58…excellent (original) “Mutiny on the Bounty” reference.
    Capt. Bligh: “Flog that man!”
    Sailor: “But he’s dead, sir…”
    Capt. Bligh: “The punishment must be carried out! Flog that man!”

  79. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:28 AM

    18 (Chai!)
    Ezzie
    Probably added incentives for good behavior, helping to recoup the losses, helping the government stop other Ponzi schemes, etc. He’ll never serve out anything close to the 18. Watch him get out in 6-7.

  80. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:31 AM

    162: 150 for what the prosecution wants plus 12 to drive home the point that what the defense wanted was ridiculous.
    During his time in the pokey assets were likely still being squirreled away worldwide: a new definition of “good behavior” if I ever heard of one.

  81. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:34 AM

    he’ll have to cover my grocery bills for a week.
    -maria b.

  82. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:36 AM

    40 1/4 on an uptick

  83. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:47 AM

    he should be sentenced to living in a 1 bedroom with me.
    -ruth

  84. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:48 AM

    36 years.
    -jonesy

  85. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:50 AM

    150 years

  86. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:51 AM

    infinity + 1

  87. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:51 AM

    46 years

  88. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    Thirty years. Can Chaz sign the mug, too?

  89. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    100 yrs of tossing my salad.
    -cg

  90. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    sex with the noel daughters

  91. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:57 AM

    874 years

  92. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 10:57 AM

    75 years of Federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison

  93. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:00 AM

    250 years.
    -kevin bacon

  94. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:03 AM

    12 years

  95. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:05 AM

    25 TO 30 YEARS.

  96. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:05 AM

    30 days + community service
    -Donte Stallworth

  97. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:09 AM

    1 year probation

  98. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:14 AM

    50 million thousand years

  99. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:15 AM

    18

  100. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:15 AM

    18

  101. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:16 AM

    18

  102. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:17 AM

    18

  103. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:18 AM

    walk

  104. Posted by guest | June 29, 2009 at 11:23 AM

    You talking to me? You talking to me? Go on home, boy.

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