• 01 Jun 2009 at 9:45 AM

Swan Song

Picture 1445.pngAs Tim Geithner embarks on his campaign for confidence in China, it seems not everybody is so sure that Timmy G and the boys back in Washington have this whole running up massive debt levels and record fiscal deficit thing quite under control. Former Chinese central bank advisor Yu Yongding wants to check Geithner’s homework to see if the numbers actually add up or if he is just looking at the answer key at the back of the book.
Among the objectives the Obama administration has claimed it will achieve is a reduction in the fiscal deficit from its current level of 12.9% of GDP to approximately 3%. In response to this laudable but lofty ambition, Yu wants to know if “Geithner can show us some arithmetic. We need to know how the U.S. government can achieve this objective.” Meanwhile, in a galaxy far, far away, the His Black Swaness, Nassim Taleb, appears to have already done the arithmetic and is not so convinced of the new math the Treasury and Fed are using.

Universa Investments LP, which has links to “Black Swan” author and New York University professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is starting a hedge fund to bet that efforts by governments and central banks to end the global recession will lead to hyperinflation, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Taleb. The fund will invest in commodities and options on oil and gold stocks, the Journal said.

So let’s get ready to rumble- will defending champion Nassim Taleb (obviously wearing the black trunks) retain his title of being right at the expense of most of the free world or will up-and-comer Tim Geithner score an unexpected knockout blow? Only time will tell but conventional wisdom says always bet on black.

25 comments (hidden for your protection)
Show all comments ↓

Comments (25)

  1. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 9:53 AM

    Yu talkin’ to me?

  2. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:00 AM

    Australian black swans are mean critters compared to their white cousins.

  3. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:05 AM

    This is conjecture. Taleb hasn’t said anything. And whatever bet he’s placed, he’s hedging at the same time. Now whoever knows when the dollar will totally collapse, lets talk.

  4. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:08 AM

    @3- April 31, 2010!
    -Maxine

  5. Posted by american bandersnatch | June 1, 2009 at 10:12 AM

    I hope Geither wins for many reasons, not the least of which is that it reduces the chances Taleb will issue another self-hagiographical book.

  6. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:16 AM

    Na’gunna…Na’gunna…Na’gunna work here anymore

  7. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:22 AM

    That picture is racist.

  8. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:27 AM

    I just love how the defecit is important only when it isn’t the result of a tax cut.

  9. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:28 AM

    Wait-is the fight not fixed already?

  10. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:31 AM

    “Nassim “Black Swan” Taleb Busted For Exaggerating Returns”
    http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nassim-talebs-new-fund-2009-6

  11. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:32 AM

    @8 look up Hugo Chavez in Wikipedia, maybe you’ll understand the difference

  12. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:33 AM

    Looks like Greg Michaels is a new hire and starts by calling Taleb a champion.
    Not a good start.

  13. Posted by Anal_yst | June 1, 2009 at 10:34 AM

    http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nassim-talebs-new-fund-2009-6
    Also, I’m pretty sure this was from like last week, but w/e, game on.

  14. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:34 AM

    @12- actually, it seems like he’s saying in Taleb v. Geithner, Taleb’s his bet. Reading comprehension, it is key.

  15. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:37 AM

    @4 hit the nail on the head.

  16. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:44 AM

    @14
    Reading comprehension, it is key.
    You sound like EP.

  17. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:46 AM

    @10
    The man doesn’t have many fans around here. That’s yet another reason.

  18. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 10:52 AM

    Considering Geithner’s diet of raw eggs and his workout regimen in northern siberia running with a log strapped to his shoulders, Taleb will be Ko’d in the first round.
    Go TIMMMMMAY!

  19. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 11:35 AM

    Is Yu Yongding related to Long Duk Dong?
    Just askin

  20. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 11:38 AM

    Thank you, President Obama for making my IRA start to come back!!

  21. Posted by Cliff Huxtable | June 1, 2009 at 12:21 PM

    The Black Swan theory claims that major events (ie 9/11, Katrina, or catastrophic hyperinflation) are only predictable and “explainable” in hindsight. Therefore, what qualifies this guy to predict hyperinflation? Seems to me like he’s contradicting the book that made him famous…

  22. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 12:30 PM

    Reminds me of the story of the indian and the weatherman.

  23. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 1:58 PM

    @19- No, it’s Won Hung Lo! Now keep it straight next time!

  24. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 3:25 PM

    @23-I stand corrected, I will be more careful in the future

  25. Posted by guest | June 1, 2009 at 3:59 PM

    he can’t predict the rise of the lycans