As Tim Geithner embarks on his campaign for confidence in China, it seems not everybody is so sure that Timmy G and the boys back in Washington have this whole running up massive debt levels and record fiscal deficit thing quite under control. Former Chinese central bank advisor Yu Yongding wants to check Geithner’s homework to see if the numbers actually add up or if he is just looking at the answer key at the back of the book.
Among the objectives the Obama administration has claimed it will achieve is a reduction in the fiscal deficit from its current level of 12.9% of GDP to approximately 3%. In response to this laudable but lofty ambition, Yu wants to know if “Geithner can show us some arithmetic. We need to know how the U.S. government can achieve this objective.” Meanwhile, in a galaxy far, far away, the His Black Swaness, Nassim Taleb, appears to have already done the arithmetic and is not so convinced of the new math the Treasury and Fed are using.
Universa Investments LP, which has links to “Black Swan” author and New York University professor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is starting a hedge fund to bet that efforts by governments and central banks to end the global recession will lead to hyperinflation, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Taleb. The fund will invest in commodities and options on oil and gold stocks, the Journal said.
So let’s get ready to rumble- will defending champion Nassim Taleb (obviously wearing the black trunks) retain his title of being right at the expense of most of the free world or will up-and-comer Tim Geithner score an unexpected knockout blow? Only time will tell but conventional wisdom says always bet on black.
Yu talkin’ to me?
Australian black swans are mean critters compared to their white cousins.
This is conjecture. Taleb hasn’t said anything. And whatever bet he’s placed, he’s hedging at the same time. Now whoever knows when the dollar will totally collapse, lets talk.
@3- April 31, 2010!
-Maxine
I hope Geither wins for many reasons, not the least of which is that it reduces the chances Taleb will issue another self-hagiographical book.
Na’gunna…Na’gunna…Na’gunna work here anymore
That picture is racist.
I just love how the defecit is important only when it isn’t the result of a tax cut.
Wait-is the fight not fixed already?
“Nassim “Black Swan” Taleb Busted For Exaggerating Returns”
http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nassim-talebs-new-fund-2009-6
@8 look up Hugo Chavez in Wikipedia, maybe you’ll understand the difference
Looks like Greg Michaels is a new hire and starts by calling Taleb a champion.
Not a good start.
http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nassim-talebs-new-fund-2009-6
Also, I’m pretty sure this was from like last week, but w/e, game on.
@12- actually, it seems like he’s saying in Taleb v. Geithner, Taleb’s his bet. Reading comprehension, it is key.
@4 hit the nail on the head.
@14
Reading comprehension, it is key.
You sound like EP.
@10
The man doesn’t have many fans around here. That’s yet another reason.
Considering Geithner’s diet of raw eggs and his workout regimen in northern siberia running with a log strapped to his shoulders, Taleb will be Ko’d in the first round.
Go TIMMMMMAY!
Is Yu Yongding related to Long Duk Dong?
Just askin
Thank you, President Obama for making my IRA start to come back!!
The Black Swan theory claims that major events (ie 9/11, Katrina, or catastrophic hyperinflation) are only predictable and “explainable” in hindsight. Therefore, what qualifies this guy to predict hyperinflation? Seems to me like he’s contradicting the book that made him famous…
Reminds me of the story of the indian and the weatherman.
@19- No, it’s Won Hung Lo! Now keep it straight next time!
@23-I stand corrected, I will be more careful in the future
he can’t predict the rise of the lycans