Economists Up Expectations For Second Half (WSJ)
The pseudo-scientists-cum-fortune-tellers have mounted an attack on the second half numbers, calling for revisions upward based on the overwhelming success of the clunkers program. Leading the assault are UBS (Q3 to 2.5% from 2 and Q4 to 3% from 2.5) Wells Fargo (Q3 to 3% from 2.2% and Q4 2% from 1.6%) , and T. Rowe Price (it doesn’t really matter, does it?).
Clinton Secures Release Of Journalists, Gives Il Spotlight (Bloomberg)
Firstly, I was under the impression Mr. Il had the spotlight before and kind of screwed it up – it was clearly chronicled in the documentary “Team America”.
Secondly, welcome home ladies.
Society Generale Reports Decent Showing (BBC)
“The bank made 309m euros ($445m; £263m) between April and June, down 52% on the 644m euros it made in the same period a year earlier.”
Lloyds Reports £4B Loss (FT)
“Lloyds Banking Group on Wednesday said that the deteriorating state of its loan portfolio had caused it to recognise £13.4bn of impairment charges in the first half of 2009.”
GM Chief Vows To Defend Market Share (NYT)
It’s refreshing to see the return of the vow, it’s been so long since anyone in the automotive industry had the balls to promise, no.. wait. Anyway, Whitacre Jr., is vowing to not give up market share despite their reduction in production/lines. Take note, you can sleep now.
Two Traders Urge Gas Market Changes (WSJ)
This is too complicated to summarize, but it’s worth a read.
Lehman In Tax Trouble (NYT)
“The Bloomberg administration has accused Lehman of shortchanging the city of $627 million in corporate and other taxes, beginning in 1996. It is now trying to convince federal bankruptcy court in Manhattan that the city should jump closer to the front of Lehman’s long line of creditors.”
Treasury Considering Mores Sales Of TIPS (WSJ)
With the budget deficit ballooning, the US Gov is ever in search of exciting way to raise capital – enter TIPS. With 1.8T of debt issued through September (I’m citing the article here) it’s not impossible to think there might be a little jack in the prices going forward (but of course, not too much – the talking heads won’t hear of it).
Archive for August 2009
$$$ AIG will not talk about what happened this quarter [Bloomberg]
$$$ Third Point founder Daniel Loeb details everything he has done in his entire life.[Simoleonsense.com]
$$$ Minnesota Twins’ Owners Gain $110 Million From PepsiCo Deal [Bloomberg]
$$$ For once. the Treasury’s forecasts are 20% too conservative [WSJ]
We’re not exactly sure what is going on in the Natural Resources IB Group at the House of Dimon, but apparently they’re dropping like flies. DB is hearing that a second intern in the group was worked into a state requiring hospitalization last weekend after experiencing “exhaustion and a migraine headache”.
Update I: We are told the primary reason for the trip to the hospital wasn’t so much mere exhaustion but the inability of the intern to stop violently throwing up.
While Sir Allen’s daughter, Randi, continues to fight against the “Gestapo-like” tactics the receiver in her father’s case is using to smoke her out of her condo, ten former Stanford advisers are losing patience that their commissions are still frozen. The 10 self-described “innocent victims” who used to bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in commission on those magical high-yielding CDs take issue with receiver Ralph Janvey’s belief that $40 million in frozen advisor funds should be used to pay back their former clients. As for the man himself, prosecutors asked an appeals court to keep Stanford behind bars in his sweat box as he awaits trial.
“Stanford had extensive international contacts and minimal ties to Houston, faces the possibility of life in prison if convicted, maintained at least one secret Swiss bank account, and has realistic access to substantial resources either directly or through the support of others,” the prosecutors argued.
The prosecutors must be really getting under Sir Allen’s skin by now. First they deny him a jail with central air and now the flight risk issue has made him miss today’s solemn occasion in Antigua commemorating their surrender to Stanford investors in the Mount Obama naming ceremony.
Because we know you for the free market lovers that we are, we are certain you share our concern about any increase in power for the Federal Reserve. The news that the present administration plans to significantly broaden the Fed’s reach will have, likewise, filled you with a creeping dread. Fortunately, we have discovered that there is nothing at all to fear: The Fed will be hiring really, really smart people from now on. (Oh, and there will be more stress tests).
The Federal Reserve plans to strengthen its examinations of banks’ lending practices and financial health with new teams composed of experts in everything from law to economics and markets.
Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo outlined the step in testimony to a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington today. The overhaul, which would make reviews more uniform across the banking system, builds on the stress tests the central bank completed on the biggest 19 banks in May, he said.
Definitely, absolutely smarter than the people over at Treasury.
Fed to Strengthen Bank Examinations With Expert Teams [Bloomberg]
As evidenced by Geithner’s mini-meltdown on Friday, the stress and frustration levels of policymakers are starting to get close to the boiling point. But help is on the way to every member of the House and Senate as well as every governor. The Moonlight BunnyRanch is sending out “good time party passes” to our nation’s lawmakers to help them forget the economic crisis and their spouses at the same time. Citing the collective works of Mark Sanford and The Spitz, BunnyRanch owner Dennis Hof explained the benefit of the brothel’s stimulus plan.
“These men are good men who have gotten themselves into trouble and could have avoided all of this exploitation by visiting the BunnyRanch”
The BunnyRanch is also providing much needed relief for frustrated Californians by accepting IOUs. The full menu on offer to lawmakers who are now looking for flights to Reno follows after the jump.
GE Pays $50 Million to Resolve SEC Accounting Probe [Bloomberg]
Former GE Chief Jack Welch Expects Full Recovery From Discitis [Bloomberg]
We’re rooting for Jobs now based on this connection.
It’s no wonder RBS couldn’t meet its lending quotas. Instead of attending to its penance of making forced loans, RBS was busy acting as a bailout funds pass-through SPV for its auditor’s benefit. Having closely scrutinized and signed off on RBS’s books throughout the lending binge, Deloitte pulled in just under £60 million last year from the bank, close to double the year before, for its reinvigorated efforts to ensure UK taxpayer money is safe. Between this incident and the AIG fee bonanza, it’s been a decent year for half of the Big 4.
One of the terms of the unwritten deal consummated between China and her citizens after several of them were shot, crushed by tanks, detained, executed or imprisoned in 1989, was that the party would remain in power, but the trappings of western life (internet porn and the appearance of prosperity in particular) would be permitted. Like any campaign (or post-massacre) promise, one expects real consequences only in the most dire of circumstances. Having said this, the downside for Chinese leadership isn’t losing an election or being kicked out in a no-confidence vote. It is getting shot in the back of the head and having their organs sold for transplants before the by-products are ground up for poultry feed. Given this, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that China is a bit concerned about the mounting problem of the jobless.
In the first real data point since the performance based compensation revamp at UBS, the bank today discussed quarterly earnings. While the exact components of the new formula remain a closely guarded secret, Dealbreaker’s analyst desk has crunched the numbers to shed some light on the Swiss giant’s compensation methodology and has concluded that there are strong correlations between performance and compensation at UBS.
Dealbreaker ran multiple regressions for quarterly compensation data (n=2) against quarterly performance data and now announces results for the following independent variables:
STAFFn = -45.833 (Each increase in headcount of -45.833 staff results in compensation expense increase of 1.00%)
PROFITb = -.0754 (Each CHF -.0754 billion of profit results in compensation expense increase of 1.00%)
CapGainDebt = -0.051 (Each CHF -0.051 billion of capital gains on debt results in compensation expense increase of 1.00%)
Given the planned headcount reductions of 1200, our consensus for compensation expense for Q3 is +26.182%.
UBS Performance Pay Rises Despite Sfr1.8bn Loss [Wealth Bulletin]
