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John Taylor, Chief Investment Officer of FX Concepts, has been doing a lot of thinking about the economy lately and he keeps coming back to one thing– how similar things are to Europe just prior to World War II and how Bernanke’s actions are eerily reminiscent to those of Adolf Hitler. Sure, the facial hair is slightly different but other than that, Taylor says, “the parallels are ominous.” Really, it’s uncanny! If you aren’t lucky enough to be one of Taylor’s clients, who received the history lesson this morning, please join us as we take a gander at the outside the box “insight” some people apparently pay money to read.
Not too many traders remember ‘the phoney war,’ or the Sitzkrieg, as it happened 71 years ago. After Hitler invaded Poland on the first day of September 1939, Poland’s European allies France and England declared war on Germany, but nothing significant happened on that front until the following May when the German Army rolled through Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium and into France. Although the horror started in Poland in the fall of 1939, for a few months, the rest of Europe was spared that horror, which eventually lasted through the next five years. Strangely, this past September (2010), the US equity market rose by about 8.8%, its best return for that month, since that same September (1939). To me the parallels are ominous. What were those people thinking back in 1939? Could a coming world war have that positive an impact on the economy and on markets? They must have been crazy – of course equities gave up their gains and were cratered in May 1940 when Germany invaded the west. But, what are we thinking of now? A war has just begun. Didn’t Bernanke and the Fed announce in late August at Jackson Hole (and multiple times since then) that the US was going to enter QE2 and debase its currency setting off a currency war. Bernanke, like Hitler seven decades ago, had been warning everyone who would listen for years.
Stay tuned for upcoming reports in which we learn that Bernanke and Kim Jong-il were actually separated at birth.
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