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Bill Gross’s Investment Advice: Don’t Let The US Government Boil Your Frog Legs Or Drown You In A Pitcher Of Milk

Just, let him finish.

I’m going to one-up Mark Twain in the quantity department and spin two yarns about jumping frogs, one which has been frequently told, the other not so much. Neither of them have anything to do with Samuel Clemens’ heralded short story, but both, metaphorically at least, describe our current investment markets and how to think about the future. My first story is the one you’ve all heard about. Put a frog in a kettle of boiling water and he’ll jump out faster and further than any of those blue ribbon winners at the Calaveras County jumping frog contest. Put him in a pot at room temperature, however, slowly turn up the temperature to boiling, and you’ll have frog legs for dinner. This latter, more unfortunate toad temporarily adapted to his external environment, which seemed like a practical thing to do, until – well, until he reached 212° at which point he was cooked. Today’s bond investors are experiencing a similar fate with nary a “ribbet” of complaint.

[…]

All right fellow frogs, so we’re being repressed and shortchanged in order to allow Uncle Sam to balance its books. Whatta we gonna do about it? “Frogs of the world unite,” as Lenin might have said, and so here’s where I harken back to Mark Twain and my second lesser-told frog story. There was this other frog who instead of being tossed into a pot of hot water was left to cool its heels in a pitcher of cold milk. Unable to jump out, he churned and churned those frog legs until eventually the milk turned into butter and the hardened butter allowed him the platform to leap to froggy freedom! Well, let’s get churnin’, fellow frogs. If the U.S. or the U.K. or any other government is going to attempt to boil us alive, let’s make butter! Butter in this instance is what PIMCO characterizes as “cheap bonds.” Potentially confusing, “cheap bonds” is really a simple concept – sort of like the teeter-totter. Any bond, even a Treasury bond, is composed of several pieces – sort of like an atom with its neutrons, electrons, protons, positrons, neutrinos (whoops, don’t wanna go too far here). There’s an interest rate or yield piece, commonly measured by “duration.” There’s a credit piece, typically referred to as a “spread” when you buy a corporate bond. And there’s a volatility piece, a liquidity piece and other little bits and particles that will go unexplained for now. The important point, though, is that if the government is going to artificially repress yield, then an intelligent frog should focus on the parts of a bond that are less repressed! You can, for instance, produce a 1% expected return in today’s market in a number of ways. Buy a repressed 3-year Treasury note at just under 1%, or purchase an A-rated corporate floating rate note (FRN) with little to no durational risk at a 3-month LIBOR +75 basis points spread, currently returning 1%. Which is the better deal? Well, they both appear to lead you to the same place but our cheap bonds argument would maintain that the FRN gets you there with a lot less risk. The credit piece, in other words, is a safer spread than the duration piece.

Journalists, financial advisors, and perhaps even some clients marvel at how PIMCO can be doing so well in 2011 while being underweight the Treasury/durational component of the bond market. Folks – we’re making butter. If you’re being repressed, our strategy is to churn those legs, get out of the pitcher, and above all stay away from boiling pots of water.

Buy Cheap Bonds With Safe Spread [PIMCO]

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30 Responses to “Bill Gross’s Investment Advice: Don’t Let The US Government Boil Your Frog Legs Or Drown You In A Pitcher Of Milk”

  1. Billy Gross says:

    I’m a huge fan of my work.

    • trojan says:

      Hey, I’ll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher’s ass by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn’t you rather to take his word for it?

  2. Guest says:

    Frog legs are ok to eat at 160 degrees.

     – South Florida Raymond James Associate

  3. Anonymous says:

    Getting hooked on Mega-desk was my own damn fault. But, I don’t care about assigning blame. All I care about, is Mega-desk. That is all I care about. Getting. More. Mega-desk.

  4. Guest says:

    who boils frog legs?  we fry them.

    -Thomas Keller

  5. Put_Option says:

    “There’s a credit piece, typically referred to as a “spread” when you buy
    a corporate bond. And there’s a volatility piece, a liquidity piece and
    other little bits and particles that will go unexplained for now.”

    Oh that makes a lot more sense now

    -AIG Credit Risk Manager

  6. Charlie Dahmer says:

    Legs….nomnomnomnom.

  7. Homer S. says:

    Hmmmmm.  Frog Butter.

  8. When's Lunch? says:

    These little screeds of Bill’s are easier to parse if you dream of a sheer, pink-veiled El-Erian twirling and dancing to the sound of his own humming and finger cymbols gently showering rain-like sounds. 

  9. Richard says:

    They are working on it, just go search: Layoffs 2011
    You will see we are boiling.

  10. What Not To Wear says:

    Note to “The Bond King”:  You have more than established your place at the top of the finacial world, but I gotta tell ya, that “tie-scarf” look has got to go!  You are not a manly-man.  When you loop that tie around your neck, you do not look like a jock cooling down from a workout.  You look like an effeminate nerd wearing a boa.

  11. Momentus says:

    Will there be a frog-leg question on the CFA exam this Saturday?

    –guy who wishes he poured this much studying into the GMAT

  12. F Abagnale_Sr says:

    This prick plagarized my story.

  13. That second mouse says:

    Journalist: Bill, would you like to say grace? [Long pause] Journalist: Unless you’re not comfortable.
    Bill Gross: Absolutely. Two little mice fell into a bucket of cream. The first mouse quickly gave up and drowned, but the second mouse, he struggled so hard that he eventually churned that cream into butter and he walked out. Amen. [All say: Amen]
    Client: Oh, that was beautiful. The mouse, he churned that cream into butter.

  14. Guest says:

    What if the frog is in skim milk?

  15. Anonymous says:

    We are slightly offended
    -France

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