Interested?
To: [A bunch of hedge funds]
Subject: Arbitrage InvestmentGreetings: I am professional sports arbitrageur. I am investigating the formation of my own offshore hedge fund that would fund my arbitrage activities, and I thought I would concurrently contact exisiting hedge funds to see if they would be interested in investing in this fantastic, risk free concept, saving me the time, effort and expense of establishing my own fund.
I am engaged in the practice of sports arbitrage, that is, simulataneous wagering on both sides of a sporting event when a market inefficency occurs and the two seperate bookmakers set the wager lines such that a guranteed profit can be made by this simultaneous wager. The outcome of the match is irrelevant, as the profit is made because the books set the odds differently. There is nothing illegal about it (in every country in the world, except the USA; therefore, the fund and it’s operation would be domiciled offshore) – it’s a perfectly legitimate way to take advantage of the high number of sports bookmakers in the world while making a guaranteed profit. I have designed a proprietary system for instant review of over 100 online bookmakers and recognition of any and all arbitrage opportunities; these opportunities usually exist for only a few minutes, so immediate recognition and action on the arbitrage is required.
I would envision the fund having a cap of probably $1-2 million US. Any more than that and I would start running into problems making sure the bookmakers would accept my wagers. This money would be spread across at least 50 bookmakers. I should have no trouble returning at least 4% per month (48% per year) to my investors with no real risk, after my fees and expenses. I would hope to be able to get closer to returning 6% per month (72% per year), but the compelling thing to remember is – there is no risk. No money is wagered/invested, until the existence of an arbitrage opportunity occurs, rendering the outcome of the sporting event irrelevant.
I am not aware of what specific criteria your fund has, but from what I can tell, a $1-2 million investment in a concept like this that has no risk and returns nearly 50% per year would be a wise investment. Please let me know if you would like to discuss this further. Email or call anytime.
Conversely, if you are not interested, would you mind telling me why not? Is it too small of an investment for your fund? Does this concept not seem believeable to you? Any input would be helpful?
could work, too small
-guy who has thought of this and abandoned sports betting models for more hedgefundy ones
He’s basically a bookie who’s looking for new, wealthy, clients.
I’m in. Sign me up.
–Gary Foster
How many times can he say “no risk” in a single email?
not sure why you included this story? looks like a typical hedge fund marketing presentation to me except he forgot to say 2 & 20. i’d probably give him money over 90% of the harvard & yale lads with no socks and loafers up in ny
because it’s amusing?
let’s see…because it’s NOT a typical hedge fund presentation? any other brain busters?
I like the sound of this. Risk free, you say? Guaranteed profits? I’d like to invest in this strategy, no questions asked.
- Fred Wilpon
did you eat a lot of paint chips as a kid?
knock knock…who’s there…scarcasm…sarcasm who? sarcasm who? i don’t get it.
totally agree. this is basically a carbon copy of my pitch, except I usually say “no risk” at least 5 more times.
-SAC
(PS: in case it wasn’t abundantly clear…you’re an idiot.)
If you’re going to cover tennis, please call me.
Is that you, Nails?
This kid never remembered Porter’s Five Forces. He forgot that there are no barriers to entry on this idea. Any quant out there can set up a spreadsheet or a program that links to all the bookies, and then spits out the “arbitrage.”
I already tried this. Al Pacino screwed me up before I could get going.
Matthew McConaughey
This actually wouldn’t be a terrible idea if it weren’t for, you know, the vig.
When I put all of my money into mortgage backed securities in 2006 all of the guys at lehman told me they were risk free too… I think they forgot to mention that their model assumed that housing prices would never go down.
better than most shit i see everyday. only thing he forgot is the initial 100000 – 200000 to set up the firm that would be a 10% drag. and too small.
no
no
Is this like writing insurance coverage on loans that cannot possibly fail? If so,where do I send my check?
“I should have no trouble returning at least 4% per month (48% per year)”
Interesting math.
Total disregard for counterparty risk = green shoots
Right, it’s also a snap to get the online bookies to send you a check for your winnings, so at least that isn’t an issue
i am sure a few “families” will have issue with his new business venture
Only suckers reinvest profits
Hahahahahahahahaha
I caught it it too. 4 * 13 = ~ 50. Idiot.
I am engaged in the practice of Beanie Baby arbitrage, that is, simulataneous wagering on both sides of a Beanie Baby when a market inefficency occurs and the two seperate Ebay bidder set the wager lines such that a guranteed profit can be made by this simultaneous wager. The outcome of the match is irrelevant, as the profit is made because the bids set the odds differently. There is nothing illegal about it (in every country in the world, except the USA; therefore, the fund and it’s operation would be domiciled offshore) – it’s a perfectly legitimate way to take advantage of the high number of Beanie Babies listed in the world while making a guaranteed profit. I have designed a proprietary system for instant review of over 100 online bidder and sellers of any and all arbitrage opportunities; these opportunities usually exist for only a few minutes, so immediate recognition and action on the arbitrage is required. I would envision the fund having a cap of probably $1-2 million US. Any more than that and I would start running into problems making sure the sellers would accept my wagers. This money would be spread across at least 50 bids. I should have no trouble returning at least 4% per month (48% per year) to my investors with no real risk, after my fees and expenses. I would hope to be able to get closer to returning 6% per month (72% per year), but the compelling thing to remember is – there is no risk. No money is wagered/invested, until the existence of an arbitrage opportunity occurs, rendering the outcome of the sporting event irrelevant. I am not aware of what specific criteria your fund has, but from what I can tell, a $1-2 million investment in a concept like this that has no risk and returns nearly 50% per year would be a wise investment. Please let me know if you would like to discuss this further. Email or call anytime. Conversely, if you are not interested, would you mind telling me why not? Is it too small of an investment for your fund? Does this concept not seem believeable to you? Do you just hate Beanie Babies? Any input would be helpful? -Karl MaloneBeanie Baby Arbitror
Yes, yes, and same.
Fail.
In places like the UK and Germany they’ll send you a bank wire same-day. Hence the repeated references to ‘offshore.’
I know, I know, Ireland’s not a real country. But think of the hooker parties we can have as the biggest sports-betting arb fund in all of GERMANY!
[Wait till you see the girls with the cerulean bracelets]
1-2 million, really?
that’s less than what Phil spends in grooming products for me each year
- Sent from Wilbur´s IPAD
too long, didnt even get past fucking engaged…
this is far from risk free. he has credit exposure to a bunch of dodgy offshore gambling sites and one default would blow out years of money made on the small spreads that these trades would pick up. bad idea.
Do bookies provide FIX feeds?
Except the complete opposite. Cf. Mark Cuban being pitched and pitching the same idea years ago. It works, it just doesn’t scale.
So his strategy is to bet against Wilpon and the Mets. 84 games left in the season and a simple mix of some money lines and run lines would give you at least a 48% return. No way the mets go over .500 for the rest of the season.
yes, but you need to incorporate both value AND momentum into your model. and talk a lot about using common sense and not just math…that’s how it’s done
It can’t be done Newman. I’ve worked the numbers and there’s no way it can be done. Forget it.
Just wait until I start arbitraging different wholesale prices for Light^2 and GPS data transmission.
“this is far from risk free.”
get out of town.
+1
You’re doing it backwards. He started with 48 and divided by 12, of course.
not enough, other than that I have no concerns.
Not too mention the fact that he’s asking investors to give him cash that he’ll deposit in an offshore bank account, that he controls, which he may or may not use to gamble on sports….
cf LAD LN [equity] — the bookies are major, legitimate companies in places like Britain: you’re not dealing with Vinnie and Big Al from Bensonhurst.
(edit- this was meant to be in response to Rational)
This passes our due diligence test……..where do we wire the funds?
~ The Wilpons
Can I get $20 on the Rays tonight?
Thanks,
~ Nails
Have you read any of our investor presentations?
- UBS VP of Investor Relations
PS can we scale it to about 100M instead? I have to pay off some jackass in 3 years. Thx!
c/o Joe Casano
Greenwich, CT
You’re hired!
- UBS risk management
Texashedge, f-face. First, take a big step back… and literally, F YOUR OWN FACE
Disclaimer: Instead of cash, we intend to pay our investors “in kind” and by “in kind” we mean assorted sports memorabilia such as bobble heads, jockstraps, etc.
P. Falcone, Chief Risk Officer
Two For The Money, LLC
I am pretty sure I know who this is.
You’re allowed to say fuck here, Les
Is that you Bovery?
- guy who would like his money back someday
Is that you Bovery?
- guy who would like his money back someday
That’s what she said.
That’s what she said.
No thank you.
-a bunch of hedge funds
No thank you.
-a bunch of hedge funds
Greetings,
I arbitrage stock options, and recently, I discovered that the same options are traded at DIFFERENT EXCHANGES at the same time! (Shhhhhh!). And the guys in New York don’t realize that the guys in Chicago are doing the same things at different prices and vice-versa (dummies) so I am raising all the $$ I can toreallystart tradingthesethingsalot tomaketonsof$$$$
Send checks here:
214 S. Canal St. Unit 328
Chicago Il 60605
Greetings,
I arbitrage stock options, and recently, I discovered that the same options are traded at DIFFERENT EXCHANGES at the same time! (Shhhhhh!). And the guys in New York don’t realize that the guys in Chicago are doing the same things at different prices and vice-versa (dummies) so I am raising all the $$ I can toreallystart tradingthesethingsalot tomaketonsof$$$$
Send checks here:
214 S. Canal St. Unit 328
Chicago Il 60605
Is everyone high today on this board? What the fuck kind of comments are these? REALLY? THIS MIGHT NOT BE A GOOD INVESTMENT? Do you think Bess put this story up here because it really is a hot tip?
Is everyone high today on this board? What the fuck kind of comments are these? REALLY? THIS MIGHT NOT BE A GOOD INVESTMENT? Do you think Bess put this story up here because it really is a hot tip?
Obvious scam. Everyone knows a street and a canal are two different things.
UBS Director
Obvious scam. Everyone knows a street and a canal are two different things.
UBS Director
So am I.
–Pete Rose
So am I.
–Pete Rose
Look who made it to class today!
Look who made it to class today!
Enhance
Enhance
Seems like a gig for STAR…beep…boop…trrr…beep. I hope he sent his email to those guys. They would be the right size for this too.
Seems like a gig for STAR…beep…boop…trrr…beep. I hope he sent his email to those guys. They would be the right size for this too.
Pretty sure you’re not allowed to promise returns and advertise things as risk free. Not to mention, keeping an acquatic mammal, for domestic you know, within the city limit, that ain’t legal either.
Pretty sure you’re not allowed to promise returns and advertise things as risk free. Not to mention, keeping an acquatic mammal, for domestic you know, within the city limit, that ain’t legal either.
Drinking Game!
Drinking Game!
I am pretty sure selling nickel SPX puts is at max margin is a better and more scalable strategy.
I am pretty sure selling nickel SPX puts is at max margin is a better and more scalable strategy.
counterparty credit risk ! what happens when a bookie comes to break your legs?
counterparty credit risk ! what happens when a bookie comes to break your legs?
Where was this e-mail sent from? 1998?
–Guy who knows all the sweet sports arbs disappeared ten years ago
I’m pretty sure that you were referring to me.
I’m pretty sure that you were referring to me.
someone tell him that 1.04^12=1.601
which is a 60% return per year.
stupidity, modesty, and dangerous overconfidence. COUNT ME IN.
someone tell him that 1.04^12=1.601
which is a 60% return per year.
stupidity, modesty, and dangerous overconfidence. COUNT ME IN.
Shut the fuck up, Donny
Shut the fuck up, Donny
I will say that I have used this concept many times using various online sites and you CAN turn a profit betting this way without a doubt.
But with that being said, this type of situation where you can guarantee profit mostly arises for props, and most books have extremely low limits on props.
This is coming from a guy who used to have 15 different accounts (between me and two friends) spread across the same network in order to exceed the betting limits. You are suggesting all of this under one name. It just isn’t going to work out.
I will say that I have used this concept many times using various online sites and you CAN turn a profit betting this way without a doubt.
But with that being said, this type of situation where you can guarantee profit mostly arises for props, and most books have extremely low limits on props.
This is coming from a guy who used to have 15 different accounts (between me and two friends) spread across the same network in order to exceed the betting limits. You are suggesting all of this under one name. It just isn’t going to work out.
Interesting first analysis. Do you have an updated CV?
Interesting first analysis. Do you have an updated CV?
Interesting first analysis. Do you have an updated CV?
Interesting first analysis. Do you have an updated CV?
Completely false and idiotic. Keep pretending up there in Wilton.
Completely false and idiotic. Keep pretending up there in Wilton.
Completely false and idiotic. Keep pretending up there in Wilton.
Completely false and idiotic. Keep pretending up there in Wilton.
Completely false and idiotic. Keep pretending up there in Wilton.
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Interesting. What’s your home address again?
Vinnie (Not your cousin)
Profits don’t come mostly from props. Like the flash traders, they come from taking the better price as the market moves. On big events each major book will take 50-100k or more, M casino says they’ll take 100-500k in live bets [run by Cantor]. Plus you have the various signup and deposit bonuses.
15 acc’ts spread among 3 guys is ludicrously, laughably low. That’s like a HF mgr saying he talks to a whole five guys on Wall St to trade stocks and bond and FX.
Try 40-50 per next time…whenever you get out of HS.
Profits don’t come mostly from props. Like the flash traders, they come from taking the better price as the market moves. On big events each major book will take 50-100k or more, M casino says they’ll take 100-500k in live bets [run by Cantor]. Plus you have the various signup and deposit bonuses.
15 acc’ts spread among 3 guys is ludicrously, laughably low. That’s like a HF mgr saying he talks to a whole five guys on Wall St to trade stocks and bond and FX.
Try 40-50 per next time…whenever you get out of HS.
Profits don’t come mostly from props. Like the flash traders, they come from taking the better price as the market moves. On big events each major book will take 50-100k or more, M casino says they’ll take 100-500k in live bets [run by Cantor]. Plus you have the various signup and deposit bonuses.
15 acc’ts spread among 3 guys is ludicrously, laughably low. That’s like a HF mgr saying he talks to a whole five guys on Wall St to trade stocks and bond and FX.
Try 40-50 per next time…whenever you get out of HS.
Profits don’t come mostly from props. Like the flash traders, they come from taking the better price as the market moves. On big events each major book will take 50-100k or more, M casino says they’ll take 100-500k in live bets [run by Cantor]. Plus you have the various signup and deposit bonuses.
15 acc’ts spread among 3 guys is ludicrously, laughably low. That’s like a HF mgr saying he talks to a whole five guys on Wall St to trade stocks and bond and FX.
Try 40-50 per next time…whenever you get out of HS.
Profits don’t come mostly from props. Like the flash traders, they come from taking the better price as the market moves. On big events each major book will take 50-100k or more, M casino says they’ll take 100-500k in live bets [run by Cantor]. Plus you have the various signup and deposit bonuses.
15 acc’ts spread among 3 guys is ludicrously, laughably low. That’s like a HF mgr saying he talks to a whole five guys on Wall St to trade stocks and bond and FX.
Try 40-50 per next time…whenever you get out of HS.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
This is common sports betting practice. When looking solely at the bets placed, it is risk free; however, not when adding external variable circumstance to the equation. For example, bookmaker #1 might have made a mistake in their posted line, cancel the price, and you’re left holding a non-risk free one-side bet. Or, one of the 50 bookmakers that you’re spreading your $2m around becomes insolvent and you lose your deposit.
But the major issue involves scalability of arbitrage sports betting. You’ll be shut down by the sports books far faster than you can spread the bet amounts needed to make a worthwhile return.
Clearly someone has a hard time understanding. The 15 accounts I spoke of was in regards to one specific ONLINE SPORTSBOOK network, not casinos. Online sportsbooks are where most of the line errors arise. Go try and get 15 different accounts on the SAME sportsbook/playersonly network and lemme know how it ends up.
He did say that the market would only bear about $1-2mm before bookies would stop taking his bets. Presumably the remainder can be profitably side-pocketed in LightSquared equity.
When he says risk free I don’t think he has fully considered the fat tail risk of finding two Jamaican guys with machetes in his living room (sorry, World Headquarters*).
All you guys are IDIOTS no one has asked him what the Beta is on the betting fund. How can you even consider this investment without that most important figure.
I was talking about online sportsbooks *in addition* to offline ones, n00b. The one who clearly misunderstands is still you.
Tell me again how ‘most of the profits come from propz?’ roflmao.
He should work with the guys who wrote about before..numberFire or something. They were ridiculously accurate in terms of their picks in the playoffs.
how do i contact you
KPaKPr I really enjoy the blog.Much thanks again. Fantastic.
LL9bbd Great, thanks for sharing this blog article.Really thank you! Want more.
Hi,
How can I subscribe to the Elite membership?
Great post, keep up the good work ;)
Kind regards,
Daniel