Archive for September 2011

Opening Bell: 09.26.11

Grübel’s Exit Leaves UBS in Lurch (WSJ)
The surprise resignation of Mr. Grübel deprives UBS of a veteran banker who had gone a long way in restoring the fortunes of a bank that was among the hardest hit by the financial crisis. Since his arrival at UBS in February 2009, he pulled the bank back from 19.7 billion Swiss francs ($21.8 billion) in 2008 losses. He also resolved a bruising tax-evasion scandal involving allegations by U.S. authorities that UBS bankers helped Americans evade taxes; UBS admitted wrongdoing as part of a sweeping settlement. And he stemmed the outflow of wealthy investors at UBS’s huge private bank. But Mr. Grübel had yet to completely stabilize a bank that has lurched from one crisis to another since 2007.

Trader Pay May Face Limits Under Volcker Rule (Bloomberg)
The rule, which aims to ban most proprietary trading by banks with federally insured deposits, would exempt trades related to market-making as long as the activity met at least seven standards, or principles. One principle would be that traders get paid from fees and the spread of the transactions rather than the appreciation or profit from their positions.

China Central Bank Sets Yuan Post At Record (WSJ)
Monday’s move by the PBOC is “a signal to the market that China will keep letting the yuan appreciate despite the risk aversion in the rest of the world,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, Hong Kong-based senior economist at Credit Agricole CIB. “As China continues to focus on fighting inflation, a stronger yuan is a quick way to bring down inflationary pressures,” he said.

Betting On Bernanke Returns 28% For Treasury (Bloomberg)
Treasuries due in 10 or more years have returned 28 percent in 2011, exceeding the 24.4 percent gain in all of 2008 during worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Not since 1995, when the securities soared 30.7 percent, have investors done so well owning longer-dated U.S. government debt.

Cocaine To Blow Economy (NYP)
Here’s another sign of the stalled economy — New Yorkers are ditching their coke habits. Cocaine-related emergency-room admissions, overdoses and requests for rehab have declined since the economy started its 2008 decline, according to data obtained by The Post. “It is sort of on a slight but steady downward trend,” said Dr. Stephen Ross, director of NYU’s Langone Center of Excellence on Addiction. “I treat patients in private practice. Many cocaine addicts tell me stories they don’t have enough money to buy it anymore.” Continue reading »

  • 24 Sep 2011 at 12:30 PM
  • Banks

UBS’S CEO Is Gonna Take Off Now

Forever. Continue reading »

  • 23 Sep 2011 at 6:15 PM

Write-Offs: 09.23.11

$$$ Bill Gates backs financial transaction tax to aid poor (Reuters)

$$$ Fed Has Broken Banks and Doesn’t Know It: Bove (CNBC)

$$$ Greece’s debt crisis odyssey (BBC)

$$$ BofA May Sell Piece of Mortgage Business to Fortress (WSJ)

$$$ Europe May Speed Permanent Fund Enactment (Bloomberg)

$$$ Former NBA player Tate George arrested, charged in $2 million NJ Ponzi scheme (AP)
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[via Twitter/CharlieGasparino]

Yes. Continue reading »

If you came here from outer space and tried to figure out what financial markets regulation is for, you might conclude that government interference in markets is designed mainly to prevent volatility. Think high frequency trading is to blame for recent volatility? Create a Tobin tax. Think that naked CDS trading or short selling enhances volatility? Ban them. Think speculators cause food price volatility? Impose position limits. Think stock or house prices have gone up too much? Tighten monetary policy. They’ve gone down too much? Loosen policy or allow a lot of below-market mortgage refinancing.

As a former toiler in the trenches of derivatives I have a residual fondness for volatility, though as an owner of a small and dwindling equity portfolio I am coming around to the view that small daily price increases are the best thing we can hope for in life.

Anyway. Roger Lowenstein has a long, well-reported, and to my taste depressing article in the Times Magazine this weekend about insider trading. It’s already getting some attention in part because it includes the nugget that the director of SEC enforcement believes that “‘anybody who is beating market indexes by 3 percent and doing it on a steady basis’ could be a suspect,” which seems like an unpleasant tax on good performance. (Good news John Paulson: if you insider trade, you’re unlikely to get caught!)

But here’s what caught my attention, about Noah Freeman, who you will remember as a former SAC Capital trader and funder of Winifred Jiau’s lobsters:
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“There’s a branch of Chase in your town. There’s a branch of Bank of America. There’s nothing preventing you from organizing outside that branch, with signs, with possibly even civil disobedience, to make your voices heard. They think they’re going to get away with these, these people who stole pensions funds of the american public, who stole the future of our kids and grandkids. They think–they’re kleptomaniacs. They think they’re going to get away with it. they have taken our democracy and formed it into a kleptocracy. Believe me, they’re not done yet. there’s a reason why corp american is holding 2 trillion in cash in their bank accounts…they know. The smart rich know they can only build the gates so high.” [RCP]

Opening Bell: 09.23.11

US House passes spending bill as showdown looms (Reuters)
Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives regrouped on Friday to approve a must-pass spending bill, but the prospect of a government shutdown loomed as Democrats said it would go nowhere in the Senate. Even in the face of rock-bottom approval ratings, the dispute suggested that lawmakers may not be able to bridge their differences to pass even the most essential legislation. Aid for victims of tornadoes, wildfires and other disasters could dry up by Monday if Congress does not replenish a dwindling relief fund. Funding for everything from national parks to law enforcement could expire in a week. By a largely party-line vote of 219 to 203, the Republican-controlled House in an after-midnight vote approved a bill that would keep the government running through Nov. 18 and provide $3.65 billion for disaster relief in one of the most extreme years for weather in U.S. history.

Moody’s Downgrades 8 Greek Banks (WSJ)
National Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA, Alpha Bank AE, Piraeus Bank SA, Agricultural Bank of Greece and Attica Bank SA were downgraded by Moody’s to Caa2 from B3. Emporiki Bank of Greece and General Bank of Greece were downgraded to B3 from B1. All of the banks’ debt ratings carry a negative outlook. “The government faces significant solvency challenges and historical experience shows that small sovereign debt restructurings have often been followed by larger sovereign defaults,” Moody’s warned.

BofA To Seek $800 Million In Deal To Sell Pizza Assets (Bloomberg)
BofA is in exclusive talks to sell its stake in the biggest U.S. Pizza Hut franchisee for more than $800 million, said two people with knowledge of the discussions.

Economic Signals Heighten Worries Of A Double-Dip (WSJ)
“The world is in a danger zone,” said World Bank President Robert Zoellick. His confidence in major economies avoiding another recession, he said, was “being eroded daily by the steady drip of difficult economic news.”

French, German Bank Credit Default Wagers Soar (Bloomberg)
Deutsche Bank was the most- traded company of 1,000 issuers tracked by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. in the week through Sept. 16, up from 12th the week before. Credit Agricole SA (ACA) climbed to seventh place from 43rd, while Societe Generale (GLE) SA soared to eighth from 58th. Banks hold more than half of the bonds issued by other lenders and are hedging that risk in the credit-swaps market. U.S. lenders Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) also jumped into the top 10 most-traded companies, according to the DTCC, amid speculation the world’s largest economy is headed for another recession.

Report: Ex-labor chief’s 1-day rehire nets $158,000 city pension (MSNBC)
A retired Chicago labor leader secured a $158,000 public pension — roughly five times greater than what a typical retired public-service worker in the Windy City receives — after being rehired for just one day of active duty on the city payroll, local news reports said. According to The Chicago Tribune, Dennis Gannon stands to collect approximately $5 million in city pension funds during his lifetime. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, the Tribune reported.

Prison In Bluffs Cat Sex Case (AP)
A Council Bluffs, Iowa, man who told police that he performed a sex act on a cat and then threw it out of a seventh-floor window has been given two years in prison. Thirty-year-old Gerardo Martinez was arrested after officers found the dead cat on a sidewalk outside a Council Bluffs apartment building on Aug. 3rd. Officers say Martinez was naked and told them he used methamphetamine and had engaged in sex with the cat. Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 09.22.11

$$$ Meg Whitman Is Named Hewlett-Packard Chief (NYT)

$$$ EU to speed recapitalisation of 16 banks (FT)

$$$ All Eyes on Bernanke’s Next Move (WSJ)

$$$ US banks hit by Fed and funding fears (FT)

$$$ Bank of America Said to Seek $800 Million in Sale of Pizza Hut Franchise (Bloomberg)

$$$ Glenn Beck: I’m boycotting Levi’s because of their ‘Go Forth’ ad that ‘glorifies revolution’ (NYDN)
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Mayor Bloomberg is on record claiming that riots are caused by unemployment among college graduates. But I suspect that Occupy Wall Street is overweight degrees and underweight 9-to-5 employment, and it’s not taking down the regime so much as it is taking down a lot of pizza. So one might question Bloomie’s conclusions and seek someone with more rigorous statistical training to explain Where Do Riots Come From.

Fortunately we have that in Yaneer Bar-Yam, a physicist, complex systems theorist and general man-about-town with a pleasing CV that includes writing a book called “Making Things Work” and telling Slate that “the shortcomings of the U.N. humanitarian-response system in Haiti have a lot to do with a 50-year-old mathematical theorem known as Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety.”

He and some friends wrote a paper, released yesterday, arguing that increases in food prices over the last few years can be explained almost entirely by two factors: financial market speculation and the growing use of corn for ethanol production rather than food.

Now these arguments have been made before, and also disputed or minimized. The new paper rejects a lot of those criticisms; more interestingly, it constructs a fairly simple four-parameter model that can pretty closely match the actual trends in food prices over the last few years:

So, neat. Also disturbing. Also also disturbing is this: Continue reading »

Though some might argue otherwise, Raj Rajaratnam is a pretty lucky guy. In the beginning of July, at which time he was slated to be sentenced in mere weeks, Judge Richard Holwell agreed to postpone a decision until September 27, granting the convicted Galleon founder one last summer of love. Today, Holwell tossed Raj yet another bone, putting off next Tuesday’s sentencing for October 13. Knowing the guy better than most, how would you suggest he make these next few weeks count? Continue reading »