Markets got you down? Can’t seem to keep up with your benchmark this year? Not sure you’ll ever figure out this whole buy-low, sell-high thing that you keep hearing rumors about? Cheer up, you’ve got good company. Company anyway. Specifically, corporate America, whose overall market timing ability is much worse than that of a chimp who watches Art Cashin.

That’s what McKinsey coldly concluded, noting that from 2004 to 2010, “Only 31 percent of the [S&P 500] companies earned a positive return from buying back shares—less than you would expect from a random throw of the dice.” And not only did two out of three companies underperform putting cash under a pillow; three out of four underperformed dollar cost averaging:

Now, it is not exactly news that companies tend to screw up share repurchase programs from a strictly “don’t lose lots of money” perspective. There is a simple and intuitive explanation that may even be correct. Most people buy stocks when they get a paycheck, or win the lottery, or think PE ratios are too low, or see a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, or get a tip from an insider. Some of their buying is pro-cyclical (“ooh, stocks are up, I should buy some!”), some (more?) is counter-cyclical (“ooh, stocks are cheap, I should buy some!”), and some is uncorrelated (“ooh, I found $20 on the floor, I’ll buy a round lot of BAC!”).

Companies buy their own stocks when they are flush with cash, feel generally confident, and don’t have any particularly good ideas for how to grow their businesses. You would not be crazy to expect that approach to correlate well with market tops. Indeed, McKinsey’s study understates the under-performance, because it looks only at buys. Companies don’t just buy stock when they’re flush with cash and performing well – they also sell stock when they’re out of cash and on the ropes. Buy high, sell low.

Never fear, though, McKinsey has a solution:

These findings suggest an easy fix: companies should give up trying to time the market. Long-term shareholders will be better off if management would simply forecast total excess cash and evenly distribute it each calendar quarter as “dividends” in the form of share repurchases. CFOs can approach such regular buybacks in two ways. First, they can repurchase shares as excess cash becomes available. This is the easiest approach and the one least likely to send adverse signals to investors around the potential for excess cash or cash shortfalls. It is probably right for most companies, even if it generates lower returns. Second, companies can evenly distribute similarly sized repurchases over time. For those willing to stand by their forecasts of future cash flows, this dividend-like approach will probably generate higher returns for shareholders.

Wait … “repurchase shares as excess cash becomes available”? Isn’t that the problem? Don’t companies buy stock high when they have too much cash and sell low when they have too little?

We ran kind of a crude test just to see what McKinsey was smoking and, surprisingly, either not only does “buy whenever you have excess cash” work (i.e. outperform the S&P) over the 2004-2011 time period that McKinsey used, but – contrary to their guess – it actually outperforms just spending a flat amount each month:

The blue line represents your cost if you bought based on LTM free cash flow; the green line represents your cost if you bought the same dollar amount each quarter.* Cumulatively, $1 invested in line with cash flow from 2004 to 2011 would be worth $1.15 today (though it looked pretty bad in 2009), versus $1.12 for just dollar cost averaging – both way better than the typical S&P company actually did. It’s a strange result, probably driven by the rather unusual fact that post-2008 corporate profits and cash flows have been pretty good, and companies have hoarded cash, while the S&P has been scraping where it was five years ago.

So, um, a tentative high five, McKinsey.

The savvy executive’s guide to buying back shares [McKinsey Quarterly]

* FCF (“free cash flow”) average price = cumulative average price of buying the S&P 500 in an amount proportional to the previous twelve months’ cash flow from operations less capex for the S&P 500 components as of today; DCA (“dollar cost averaging”) average price = cumulative average price of buying the S&P 500 in an equal dollar amount each quarter; assumes buying as of the price on the first day of each calendar quarter. Zillions of caveats including dividends etc. and that this doesn’t reflect individual component performance, just the aggregate for the index. Source: Capital IQ.

Comments (95)

  1. Posted by BrotherLehman | October 14, 2011 at 5:35 PM

    I was jonesing for charts all day. After that other post, it was so bad I had to turn on CNBC.

    Sweet relief. Thanks Matt.

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    I'm going to start reading Matt articles like I watch family guy, "Uh, another Meg episode"

  3. Posted by Hungry Intern | October 15, 2011 at 12:58 AM

    McKinsey, the firm that gives individuals who overachieved a sense of superiority by teaching them how to fire people.

  4. Posted by N.A.S. Keflavik Boi | October 16, 2011 at 9:37 PM

    McKinsey is the classic example of the useless "consultant" — they borrow your watch; tell you what time it is; then keep the watch as their fee. Their entire franchise is based on corporate board "ass covering" – they add NO value other than to provide cover for the feckless Guy Kibbees that populate most B of D's.

  5. Posted by dave.d | October 17, 2011 at 12:17 AM

    The results presented appear to me inconsistent with work by academic Ilya Dichev, who found that share issuance and repurchase have favored companies, over those they trade with, over the long history of the market. Companies may have made losing trades over 2004-10, but long term that has not been true.

  6. Posted by SDoonan | October 17, 2011 at 11:17 AM

    Maybe I'm missing something, but other than tax considerations isn't buying back shares kind of the same as a dividend? In an economist's magic world with no transaction costs, taxes, etc., you could imagine that if everyone is forced to sell a pro-rata piece of their ownership as part of the repurchase, it would be exactly the same as a dividend. Same amount of cash in everyone's pockets, same proportionate ownership afterwards, same company, same assets. In which case, who really cares whether companies buy back their own shares high or low? Or shouldn't companies actually dividend (or buy-back their own shares) more when the price of other things are high, and dividend or buy back less when the price of other things are low, because that minimizes opportunity cost of the cash used to dividend/buyback? Implying that companies (presumably accidentally) are actually doing this just right?

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