Archive for October 2011

Opening Bell: 10.24.11

Nicolas Sarkozy tells David Cameron: shut up over the euro (Guardian)
The bust-up between Cameron and Sarkozy held up the conclusion of the EU-27 summit for almost two hours, with the French president expressing rage at the constant criticism and lectures from UK ministers. Sarkozy bluntly told Cameron: “You have lost a good opportunity to shut up.” He added: “We are sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings.”

Banks Squabble With EU Over Greek Debt Losses (Bloomberg)
The world’s biggest banks are squabbling with European leaders over the size of losses on their Greek bonds as they seek a deal to cut the country’s debt load, two people with knowledge of the discussions said. The financial companies, represented by the Institute of International Finance, proposed a loss of 40 percent on Greek debt, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because talks are confidential. The European Union is calling on investors to forfeit as much as 60 percent, making a compromise at 50 percent possible, the person said.

Swiss Banks May Pay Billions To US, Disclose Client Names (Bloomberg)
U.S. and Swiss officials are concluding negotiations on a civil settlement amid U.S. criminal probes of 11 financial institutions, including Credit Suisse Group AG, suspected of helping American clients hide money from the Internal Revenue Service…Switzerland, the biggest haven for offshore wealth, wants an end to new U.S. probes while preserving its decades-old tradition of bank secrecy, the people said. The U.S. seeks data on Americans who have dodged U.S. taxes and a pledge by Swiss banks to stop helping such clients, according to the people.

CIC May Co-Invest With Blackstone In Loan Portfolio (WSJ)
In another sign of China Investment Corp.’s interest in overseas real estate, the sovereign wealth fund is considering teaming up with Blackstone Group LP to buy a stake in a portfolio of distressed property loans from Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC, people familiar with the matter say.

Jobs Admired Zuckerberg For ‘Not Selling Out’ (Bloomberg)
“We talk about social networks in the plural, but I don’t see anybody other than Facebook out there,” Jobs told biographer Walter Isaacson in excerpts of an interview released online by 60 Minutes. “Just Facebook, they’re dominating this. I admire Mark Zuckerberg,” Jobs said of Facebook’s chief executive officer on the recording. “I only know him a little bit, but I admire him for not selling out, for wanting to make a company. I admire that, a lot.”

Economists: ‘Miserable’ Euro PMI Heightens Recession Risk (CNBC)
Nouriel Roubini wrote on Twitter after the data came out that euro zone politicians were “hell-bent to commit growth harakiri” as “financial engineering without growth soon will lead to defaults and euro zone break-up.”

Vatican Calls For ‘Central World Bank’ To Be Set Up (Reuters)
The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a “global public authority” and a “central world bank” to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises. The 18-page document, “Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority,” was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions. “The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence,” it said. It condemned what it called “the idolatry of the market” as well as a “neo-liberal thinking” that it said looked exclusively at technical solutions to economic problems…It called for the establishment of “a supranational authority” with worldwide scope and “universal jurisdiction” to guide economic policies and decisions. Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 10.21.11

$$$ EU looks at 60% haircuts for Greek debt (FT)

$$$ Microsoft may team up with Silver Lake to buy Yahoo (WSJ)

$$$ Emmanuel Derman: “I would like the following principle to be engraved on the foreheads of all financial and economic model users: All models are short volatility.” (Reuters)

$$$ Dan Kahneman: “He told me, with a trace of defensiveness, ‘I have done very well for the firm, and no one can take that away from me.’ I smiled and said nothing. But I thought, privately: Well, I took it away from you this morning.” (NYT)

$$$ The Famous (And Infamous) Cops Of Occupy Wall Street (Daily Intel)
Continue reading »

Click Here

We anticipate three reactions from people on the road: 1) “This is a great, I gotta get in.” 2) “This is good but, three year-old company…I’m not ready to take that risk.” 3) “I don’t get it. You guys are whacky.” We hope it’s more of the first two.Jason Child, Groupon CFO, on an employee call to discuss the IPO.

Remember Dennis Kozlowski? Bald guy, about yay* high? Actually kind of cherubic-looking, in that you could see him playing Cupid in the school play? Used to run this company called Tyco until he was sentenced to 8 1/3 to 25 years in prison? Anyway, quick story about Big D is that the reasons he’s in jail include but are not limited to: 1) paying himself $105 million in 2000 when maybe he should’ve taken a bit less, 2) outfitting the bathroom in his company-funded apartment with a $6,000 shower curtain that even John Thain said no to when it came to decorating his executive washroom, 3) throwing his wife a birthday party in Sardinia that cost (Tyco) $2 million, on account of the performance by Jimmy Buffett, the togas for the guests, the “ice sculpture of Michelangelo’s David spewing vodka from his penis and a birthday cake in the shape of a woman’s breasts with sparklers mounted on top,” the latter of which do not come cheap, this much we promise you. For all of that and more, D-Koz was found guilty on counts of grand larceny, conspiracy and securities fraud. Anyway, the joint has provided a lot of reflection time for DK, and recently, he sat down to share what’s on his mind. Continue reading »

  • 21 Oct 2011 at 1:50 PM

A Word About IPO Valuations

It would be nice to think that the work that investment bankers do is quantum-physics difficult, highly differentiated, and what the heck, sexually arousing. It’s mostly not. Some things are more rocket-sciency than others. Structuring a cross-border public company merger with simultaneous-close asset divestiture to a sponsor to optimize taxes in three jurisdictions while complying with debt covenants is a bit harder than ripping off a drive-by investment grade offering. (Usually it pays more too.)

And then there’s underwriting hyped tech IPOs. Now I should say I’ve never done one and maybe I’m missing a critical component, but as far as I can tell the ratio of pay to complex-and-differentiated content seems quite high. Basically the method is:
- Get mandate
- Write prospectus saying “Groupon is awesome”
- Put together roadshow deck saying “no, really”
- Set up meetings with the 100 investors who buy everything
- Charter a jet to get you to those meetings
- Bring the CEO to those meetings
- Maybe get him to wear a tie
- Profit!

That last step is critical. Groupon’s underwriters are set to make 5% of proceeds on the IPO, or $25.5mm if it prices at the midpoint of the launch range.* Continue reading »

One question that people having been asking since the occupation of Zuccotti Park lasted longer than a weekend is, how long? How much longer, ballpark, will the Wall Street protesters stay camped out? Will the December chill drive them out? Will a January filled with sleet and snow that a certain someone will conveniently forget to remove do it? According to Stacey Hessler, not on her watch. The Florida resident, mother of four, and wife of a financial services employee named Curtis says she’s gotten comfortable.

“I’m not planning on going home,” an unapologetic Stacey Hessler, 38, told The Post yesterday. “I have no idea what the future holds, but I’m here indefinitely. Forever,” said Hessler, whose home in DeLand sits 911 miles from the tarp she’s been sleeping under.

And sorry, she’s not sorry. For those giving Stacey shit (her mom, husband, children, strangers), if you think she can just walk away, think again. Her place is here, in New York, with her new roommate, at the empathy table. Continue reading »

On Thursday night Stephen Schwarzman delivered the keynote speech at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, an annual Catholic charity fund-raiser named in honor of the former governor of New York. By tradition, the keynote speaker of the 66-year-old event is supposed to deliver a mostly humorous speech, and Mr. Schwarzman’s roughly 15-minute peroration was laced with humor…[Such as] the line that brought the house down: “Brian Moynihan is here tonight. He’s the C.E.O. of Bank of America. As many of you know, Brian’s brother Patrick runs a Catholic boarding school in Haiti. Their parents must be so proud to see two of their boys running an underfunded, nonprofit organization. Even Mr. Moynihan, who was in the audience, laughed.” [Dealbook]

Opening Bell: 10.21.11

Germany, France See No Debt Deal By Sunday (WSJ)
“At the moment, several variations are under discussion that would allow partial insurance of future debt of endangered euro zone countries,” Steffen Kampeter, Germany’s deputy finance minister, wrote in a letter to lawmakers. “But it is still an open question whether and in what form this kind of improvement of the efficiency [of the fund] will be adopted in the guidelines.”

S&P Likely To Cut Rating Of France, Others, If Economies Crash (Reuters)
“France would likely be downgraded to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ because of a deteriorating fiscal position, even if the amount of stress applied remains modest,” S&P analysts said.

Senate Blocks Funds For State Workers (WSJ)
The Senate blocked a proposal Thursday to send $35 billion to states to retain or rehire teachers and other public sector workers, marking a second setback for President Barack Obama’s jobs package. The vote was 50-50 on a procedural issue, leaving the bill short of the 60 votes it needed to advance…All Republican senators opposed the measure.

Hedge Funds Top List Of Obama Boosters (AR)
The largest supporters as of the third quarter of 2011 include David Shaw, founder of DE Shaw and Orin Kramer of Boston Provident. Big name former supporters like Dan Loeb of Third Point and Ken Griffin of Citadel have publicly criticized the President, while others, including Paul Singer of Elliott Management and John Paulson of Paulson & Co, support Mitt Romney, the apparent industry darling.

Romney: ‘There’s a good shot I might become the next president’ (PT)
MT: “…there’s a good shot I might become the next president of the United States. It’s not a sure thing, but it’s a good shot.”

Groupon Reins In IPO Target (WSJ)
Groupon Inc. is seeking to raise as much as $621 million in an initial public offering, valuing the company at $11.4 billion, if underwriters sell the maximum number of shares at the top of the proposed $16-to-$18 price range, according to a filing.

New York Winter To Test Occupy Wall Street Momentum (Reuters)
“At some point, as with any tactic, one has to find a second act. That’s true with any movement,” said Michael Kazin, a professor of social movements at Georgetown University and co-editor of the magazine Dissent. “I hope that the protesters are flexible enough to be talking about what the next step will be once most of them leave the park,” said Kazin. “I don’t think the media’s going to be writing about so many people sitting in the park if they’re still there in December.” “There’s going to be a challenge in maintaining the same scale of a presence in the plaza in New York City in winter time but I think the movement is becoming more mobile,” said Louis Guida, a union organizer and protest veteran. “There may not be a thousand people camping out in the park all winter long, but it’s not a camping trip, it’s a protest movement.” Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 10.20.11

$$$ Prosecutor: Ex-UBS Trader Falsified Transactions [Bloomberg]

$$$ Perry Capital Cuts Staff And Closes Hong Kong Office [Dealbook]

$$$ Fortune‘s 40 Under 40 list of ‘businesses hottest rising stars’ includes Bridgewater’s CEO Greg Jensen and Erin Burnett. [Fortune]

$$$ An award-winning business professor has set tongues wagging at the University of Western Ontario after he offered to give his MBA students an extra class and job recommendations in exchange for cash “tips.” [Globe and Mail]

$$$ Legendary Investor Lenny Dykstra takes plea deal on felony grand theft auto charges, former All-Star released [NYDN]

$$$ An Australian man has been hospitalized for more than a month in serious condition as a result of eating two garden slugs on a dare, according to Australian news media and ProMED , an online service that tracks disease outbreaks. [NYT] Continue reading »

Click Here

ProPublica, who do great reporting on CDO lawsuits and have been taking the SEC’s new “if you call us repeatedly about fraud, we will eventually take your name and number and return your call within 3 to 5 business days” program seriously, today point out that there may be a little bit of miscommunication between Citi and the SEC over whether the $285 billion settlement that Citi agreed to yesterday on one $1bn CDO gets Citi off the hook for the tens of billions of other CDOs, some of which maybe don’t count among Vikram’s very finest moments:

A bank spokesman said the SEC would not be examining any of those deals. “This means that the SEC has completed its CDO investigation(s) of Citi,’’ the spokesman asserted in an e mail.

Whew, that’s a relief. Wait:

“The $285 million settlement resolves only the Class V Funding III CDO, and we will not hesitate to bring further charges where we determine that there has been unlawful conduct,” an SEC spokesman said.

Hmm. This seems like the sort of thing that you’d want to resolve before handing over the $285mm.
Continue reading »

On Thursday, as Paulson spoke on a panel at an industry conference, he was asked what keeps him up at night, to which he responded: “I haven’t been getting a whole lot of sleep lately,” according to a person who was there…Paulson [also] told the audience that he doesn’t like losing money. [WSJ]