“If you go back and read our original Netflix piece, we pretty well nailed it,” Tilson told Forbes today. “But we were quite early – we were almost a year early. So we got clobbered to the point that we couldn’t take the pain, and we just said, ‘You know what? There are better shorts out here.’ And later, to the Journal: “It’s been frustrating to see our original investment thesis validated, yet not profit from it. It certainly highlights the importance of getting the timing right and maintaining your conviction even when the market moves against you. The core of our short thesis was always Netflix’s high valuation. In light of the stock’s collapse, we now think it’s cheap and today established a small long position. We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it.” [Forbes, WSJ]

Comments (35)

  1. Posted by Tom | October 25, 2011 at 4:32 PM

    Whitney Tilson is a clown. He went from outspoken NFLX critic to Reed Hastings sycophant. Now he is claiming vindication. The way I see it, he was wrong every time – not right even once. I would admire him had he stayed short. But caving in and writing a letter about how awesome NFLX is, and now trying to take credit for just being early is intellectually dishonest, just like his stupid investment in Iridium. Whitney Tilson does not know what he is doing. Thank god Bill Ackman and David Einhorn let him ride their coat-tails.

  2. Posted by Moron... | October 25, 2011 at 4:45 PM

    We're long NFLX too!

    - UBS MD

  3. Posted by timing guy | October 25, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    I totally nailed that chick and would've gotten her knocked up if I hadn't come too soon. Like, before I was even inside her.

  4. Posted by Paul Tudor Jones | October 25, 2011 at 4:50 PM

    Losers average loser

  5. Posted by Anal_ist | October 25, 2011 at 4:51 PM

    True. But, there is some NKI joke in the fact that he still gets people to pay thousands to attend his Value Investing Congress while sucking so publicly.

  6. Posted by Guest | October 25, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    To "nail it" as an investment manager, you need to make money on the position. Nothing else matters.

  7. Posted by guestapo | October 25, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    You know they're coming for Ackman, Einhorn et al and not him, right?

  8. Posted by guestapo | October 25, 2011 at 4:53 PM

    Agree to disagree.

    -WT

  9. Posted by Anal_ist | October 25, 2011 at 5:00 PM

    Yes, but the fact that he gets to collect fees because they show up (let him "ride their coat-tails") is a pretty sweet deal for him.

  10. Posted by NetFlix | October 25, 2011 at 5:00 PM

    Boardwalk Empire………… $1.99/episode
    Entourage………………………$1.99/episode
    Shameless……………………..$2.99/episode
    East Down and Bound……$5.99/episode

    Bridesmaids……………………$9.99
    The Big Short………………….$367,428,762.99

  11. Posted by Not Impressed | October 25, 2011 at 5:02 PM

    "We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it.”

    Very passive aggressive. Kind of like saying, I hope my girlfriend sleeps around on me even more, so that I can demonstrate the depth of my love for her.

  12. Posted by Hungry Intern | October 25, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    I remember this happened to me once, but thankfully I was able to explain myself before I did not explain myself.

    John Kerry

  13. Posted by 2_Small_2_Bail | October 25, 2011 at 5:04 PM

    "In light of the stock’s collapse, we now think it’s cheap and today established a small long position. We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it."

    Buying a stock in hopes it goes lower to so you can average down and buy more is the NKI.

  14. Posted by Moron... | October 25, 2011 at 5:11 PM

    Do you work for UBS?

    HBO OnDemand………….. $10.00/month
    Boardwalk Empire……….. Free Unlimited
    Entourage……………………. Free Unlimited
    EastBOUND and Down.. Free Unlimited
    Game of Thrones………… Free Unlimited

  15. Posted by Nailz6 | October 25, 2011 at 5:19 PM

    If I recall, Whitney rarely goes long enough for me.

    - Niki Marx

  16. Posted by investorcluzo | October 25, 2011 at 5:23 PM

    the NKI is (1) losing money on a short position; (2) watching the stock fall 70% as your thesis plays out while licking your wounds; capped off by (3) going long only lose another 20%…
    -UBS Trader

  17. Posted by HAM05 | October 25, 2011 at 5:24 PM

    so disappointing, thought i was gonna read about cumming in mouths etc :(
    damn you tilton/tilson, and your gender neutral names!

  18. Posted by random walker | October 25, 2011 at 5:38 PM

    you mean, "the new nailing it"

  19. Posted by The Truth | October 25, 2011 at 5:40 PM

    Whitney, call me! We can start I Knew It Capital, LLC

    - D. Gartman

  20. Posted by J. Epstein | October 25, 2011 at 5:49 PM

    I also nailed the shorties before testifying, solely due to advice of counsel, that I did not nail any shorties.

  21. Posted by Meredith Whitney | October 25, 2011 at 6:02 PM

    Forget the Muni collapse! Munis are a bargain!! I hope to average into these myself!

  22. Posted by B. Gross | October 25, 2011 at 6:02 PM

    Thats when the eating starts. Next thing, you're averaged in at 65 and "a minute on your lips, a lifetime on your hips" doesn't mean anything any more.

  23. Posted by Paulson trader | October 25, 2011 at 6:10 PM

    Whats Netflix, sorry only interested in financials.

  24. Posted by Jimmy | October 25, 2011 at 6:17 PM

    This is what happens when you give your son a girls name.

  25. Posted by Francis Scott Key | October 25, 2011 at 6:46 PM

    Take a fuckin' hike.

  26. Posted by Evelyn Waugh | October 25, 2011 at 6:47 PM

    Fuckin' A

  27. Posted by Khal Drogo | October 25, 2011 at 6:50 PM

    I nailed her.

  28. Posted by UFO | October 25, 2011 at 6:52 PM

    1. There's only room for one Whitney in this town
    2. Bears go short, FYI

    Sincerely,
    - Meredith

  29. Posted by early_hominid | October 25, 2011 at 9:21 PM

    take it easy, Francis.

    - Hulka

  30. Posted by Huh? | October 26, 2011 at 10:25 AM

    Like the morons who avereged down in Enron, BAC, etc……. His next buy is GM

  31. Posted by HFguy | October 26, 2011 at 11:19 AM

    ‘You know what? There are better shorts out here.’ And later, to the Journal: “It’s been frustrating to see our original investment thesis validated, yet not profit from it.

    Yeah, like the Doom predicting Economists have got 3 of their 6 predictions right for all the bear markets out there. Keep saying it will crash and it will do eventually. Since I am on the roll here let me give you what John Maynard Keynes said " Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

  32. Posted by As they say | October 26, 2011 at 12:17 PM

    You are, indeed, on the roll.

  33. Posted by guest | October 26, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    2004 doesn't even care enough to call for it's joke back

  34. Posted by ttt | October 26, 2011 at 3:36 PM

    You're short a stock based on its high valuation; the stock doubles and valuation multiples go even higher. Do you:
    a) increase your short and put out a 100 page presentation because you've actually done work on it (we can call this the Ackman)
    b) rumor monger the shi* out of the CEO and put some kiddie porn on his phone for good measure (the SEC)
    c) cover and go long (the UBS)
    d) cover, lock in your losses, discuss it all publicly, then gloat when it goes down even though you've lost your clients millions of dollars (tempting to also call this the UBS but I think this has to be either Tilsoned it or Munsoned.
    e) ?

  35. Posted by Steve | October 26, 2011 at 6:36 PM

    e) Profit!