Archive for November 2011

Holiday Bell: 11.25.11

Crisis Ramps Up As Markets Punish Italy (WSJ)
Italy has now joined Ireland, Greece, Portugal in having two-year yields that are higher than 10-year yields, an abnormality called an inverted yield curve. It indicates worries about the country’s immediate future and indicates a risk that investors might have to write down the value of the bonds they hold. The curves in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal all inverted before they sought external assistance. A potential shutdown of the Italian bond market, the world’s third largest, would have disastrous consequences. If the country found itself unable to raise funds from the market at affordable rates, the firefighting capabilities of the euro area’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, would be severely tested.

Violence Erupts as Shoppers Rush for Black Friday Deals (AP)
The early morning crowds were mostly peaceful, but Los Angeles authorities say 20 people at a local Walmart store suffered minor injuries when a woman used pepper spray to gain a “competitive” shopping advantage shortly after the store opened on Thursday evening. In Fayetteville, N.C., police are looking for two suspects after gunfire erupted early Friday at Cross Creek Mall. And police say two women have been injured and a man charged after a fight broke out at an upstate New York Walmart. Later in the morning, a Phoenix television station KSAZ reported that a grandfather in a Walmart in Buckeye, Ariz., was roughed up by police after the man allegedly put a game in his waistband so that he could lift his grandson out of the crowd. Witnesses told the station that police slammed the man to the ground — possibly thinking he was stealing the game.

Gunfire erupts at NC mall as early shoppers arrive (AP)
uthorities say gunfire erupted at a North Carolina mall as holiday shoppers gathered, though there are no reports of any injuries. No evacuation was ordered, but several shoppers left the mall and some smaller stores closed. The Cumberland County Sheriff’s Office says detectives are looking for two suspects after gunfire rang out at Cross Creek Mall in Fayetteville early Friday.

Hedge Fund Titan Cohen Plans Bid For Dodgers (WSJ)
In a move that shows how serious Mr. Cohen is about bidding for the team, the billionaire founder of SAC Capital Advisors has been discussing the bid with Steve Greenberg of Allen & Co., the people familiar with the matter said. The veteran investment banker has close ties to the leaders of Major League Baseball. Mr. Greenberg served as deputy commissioner of baseball, and has represented many baseball owners and bidders, including New York Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz. He is considered by many in the business to be the banker-of-choice for MLB when it comes to team sales and acquisitions. Mr. Cohen and Mr. Greenberg dealt with each other earlier this year when Mr. Greenberg was looking to sell a $200 million stake in the Mets on behalf of Messrs. Wilpon and Katz. Mr. Cohen ultimately decided not to pursue the Mets, who reached a deal with another hedge fund manager, David Einhorn, only to see it fall through over the summer.

Investors Find Little To Feast On (WSJ)
Historically, stocks have tended to do well in the fourth week of November, as Americans baste their turkeys and head to the shopping mall. But for the fifth Thanksgiving in six years, the stock market is bringing little joy. Heading into Friday’s half-day session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped 4.6% this week, putting this Thanksgiving week on track to be the worst one since 1942, when the holiday was formally fixed as the fourth Thursday of November. It is also on pace to be the blue-chip index’s worst week in the past ten.

Bank Commodity Staff Turnover Seen Gaining (Bloomberg)
The world’s biggest investment banks have greater staff turnover in commodities than in fixed-income and currencies because of tightening regulations on trading, according to Coalition, a London-based research company…JPMorgan and Bank of America are among banks that shut units trading the banks’ money in commodities before the implementation of the Volcker rule in 2012 that will limit such practices. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is curbing the size of positions any one party can take in U.S. raw-material derivatives. Revenue from banks’ commodity units is still growing faster than overall sales, Coalition said.

Image Expert Shapes Romney (His Hair, Anyway) (NYTimes)
Nobody has a more complicated and intimate relationship with Mr. Romney’s hair than the man who has styled it for more than two decades, a barrel-chested, bald Italian immigrant named Leon de Magistris. For years, Mr. de Magistris said in an interview, he has tried to persuade Mr. Romney, 64, to loosen up his look by tousling his meticulous mane. “I will tell him to mess it up a little bit,” said Mr. de Magistris, 69. “I said to him, ‘Let it be more natural.’ ” The suggestion has not gone over well. “He wants a look that is very controlled,” Mr. de Magistris said. “He is a very controlled man. The hair goes with the man.”…The cut is so recognizable that men in this well-heeled suburb of Boston ask for it by name. “The Mitt,” they whisper to Mr. de Magistris from the red vinyl chairs in his upscale salon, Leon & Co., a few blocks from the sprawling home where Mr. Romney raised his family. Mr. de Magistris, who gave Mr. Romney a $70 trim three weeks ago, agreed to share some of the secrets behind his most famous client’s coiffure in between haircuts the other day. No, he said, Mr. Romney does not color his hair. Any such artificial enhancement, Mr. de Magistris said, “is not — what do you call it? — in his DNA.” Despite holding its shape under all but the most extreme conditions, it is gel and mousse-free. “I don’t put any product in there,” he avowed. Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 11.23.11

Kramer_turkey.gif$$$ Euro zone orders tumble by most in almost 3 years [Reuters]

$$$ Charlie Gasparino: Charges against MF Global May Be “Criminal In Nature” [FBN]

$$$ Jim Chanos: “[The Chinese government] doesn’t [have money], and that’s the problem. The banking system in China is extremely fragile, and that’s one of the messages we wanted to get to people.” [BloombergTV]

$$$ In the first two months of the nationwide Occupy protests, the movement that is demanding more out of the wealthiest Americans has cost local taxpayers at least $13 million in police overtime and other municipal services, such as cleanup and sanitation. [AP]

$$$ Barclays Said to Spin Off Arbitrage Team [Bloomberg]

$$$ Anticipating high stress levels tomorrow? Bain & Co suggests making your guests bring the food. [WSJ via John Carney]

$$$ That’s it for us today. Happy Thanksgiving. We hope you all have a great holiday. Even you! Brief posting/moral support for those working on Friday and remember to be thankful you’re free to enjoy all the Thanksgiving Lobsters your heart desires. Continue reading »

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I have a hazy memory of those exciting days in 2008 and 2009 when the world was going to be remade, shiny and new, with all of the risk gone from the financial system. The way we were going to get rid of all the risk, as I recall, was with the Volcker Rule and transparency around derivatives trading. That way, no shady prop trading of derivatives could blow up our financial system again, as long as you don’t think too hard about the word “again.”

Anyway, how’d it work out? Well, the New York Fed, who you’d think would have something to say about all of that, put up a note today about transparency in CDS trading. Their feelings about transparency in CDS trading can be summed up as “meh, we could take or leave transparency in CDS trading.” Specifically:

Data on trading activity in the CDS market paint a mixed picture of the likely impact of trade reporting rules. The high levels of standardization of trading and contractual terms are apt to enhance the ability of market participants and policymakers to interpret the reported transactions. However, the low frequency of trading diminishes the potential price discovery benefits of real-time trade reporting.

So real-time trade reporting won’t cause undue problems for dealers because most CDS is in fact a pretty standardized product that can be reported on a comparable basis. There’s “an impressively high level of standardization of contract terms and market conventions” in single-name CDS, including things like standardized coupons, payment dates, and the fact that “47 percent of single-name transactions and 84 percent of index trades … are in the five-year tenor.”

But no one will care about that reporting, because there just isn’t that much trading. This is based on a longer New York Fed paper from earlier this year, which we’ve mentioned before, but this graph is worthy of another look:

You could quibble with the data design (next graph I do will have three color-coded categories, “big numbers,” “medium numbers,” and “small numbers,” and they will be interspersed randomly across the graph!) but let. it. go. Instead let’s talk about the fact that for something like 1,200 of the 1,500-ish corporate CDS reference entities, the average trading frequency is less than once per day. Continue reading »

Remember Sonya Thomas, AKA The Black Widow? For those who need a refresher, Thomas, dubbed the BW because she “often beats male competitors in eating contests” and maybe also killed a man in cold blood for stealing her lunch, housed 183 chicken wings in 12 minutes last September to take home first place in the 10th annual National Buffalo Wings Festival. When asked by a reporter if she was worried about any potential competitors, like some financial services employees who dabble in tests of gastrointestinal fortitude, she responded, “No, nobody can do it. What I do takes special skill. Talent.” And In fact, she said, “I’ll bet you a million dollars you can’t beat me.” We thought maybe someone would accept the challenge but apparently the Widow’s track record, which includes titles for cheesecake, (11 pounds in 9 minutes), crab cakes (46 in 10 minutes), Maine Lobsters (44 in 12 minutes), oysters (46 dozen 10 minutes), hard boiled eggs (65 in 6 minutes, 40 seconds), and jalapeños (251 in 9 minutes), left people cowering in the shadows. While the offer still stands, Thomas added another notch to the old belt, having beat a ten pound turkey into submission. Continue reading »

Opening Bell: 11.23.11

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose Last Week (Bloomberg)
Applications for jobless insurance increased 2,000 in the week ended Nov. 19 to 393,000, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists forecast 390,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment insurance rolls rose and those receiving emergency benefits declined.

Fed Seeks To Boost Banks With Stress Tests (Bloomberg)
The Fed yesterday told the 31 largest U.S. banks to test their loan portfolios against a deep recession to ensure they have enough capital to withstand losses. Banks with large trading operations will also test against a European market shock. The most severe scenarios outlined by the Fed include an unemployment rate of as much as 13 percent, an 8 percent drop in gross domestic product and a 52 percent plunge in stocks from the third quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012. “This is a daunting test,” said Karen Shaw Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics, a Washington regulatory research firm whose clients include the largest banks. “The Fed’s credibility as a tough guy can’t be challenged based on this.”

German Bond Auction Flops (WSJ)
A German Finance Agency spokesman said the auction reflected a nervous market but the “result doesn’t mean any refinancing bottleneck for the budget.” The German government was able to sell only €3.644 billion ($4.92 billion) of the €6 billion in 10-year bunds on auction for an average yield of 1.98%. Observers said the result was the worst in recent memory for a German government-bond sale.

Turkey Farmers Lose Out On Thanksgiving Rally (Bloomberg)
“Any time corn prices jump, our costs go up a lot,” said John Burkel, a fourth-generation turkey farmer in Badger, Minnesota, who raises about 2 million birds he sells to grocers including SuperValu Inc. (SVU) and Safeway Inc. “We’ll see the best revenue numbers ever, but costs are so high that we’re just running more dollars through our fingers.” Burkel estimates he will spend $1.688 million this year to generate $1.755 million in revenue, a 3.8 percent profit margin that’s down from 4.7 percent last year and below his annual goal of 8 percent to 10 percent. Burkel said he has cut his flock by about 500,000, or 20 percent, to save on feed costs that jumped about $250,000 from 2010.

Investors Bullish On Fed Tips (WSJ)
Hours after an Aug. 15 meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his office, Nancy Lazar made a hasty call to investor clients: The Fed was dusting off an obscure 1960s-era strategy known as Operation Twist. The news pointed to a boom in long-term bonds. It was a good call. Over the next five weeks, prices on 10-year Treasury bonds soared, offering double-digit returns in an otherwise dismal year. By the time the Fed announced its $400 billion Operation Twist on Sept. 21, the window for quick profits had all but slammed shut. Ms. Lazar is among a group of well-connected investors and analysts with access to top Federal Reserve officials who give them a chance at early clues to the central bank’s next policy moves, according to interviews and hundreds of pages of documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal through open records searches. The access is part of a push by hedge funds and other traders to get more information about the inner workings of government. Developments in Washington have become more important after the financial crisis in 2008 spawned new regulations and a stronger hand by lawmakers in businesses.

CME Pledges More Funds To Free MF Global Customer Cash (WSJ)
CME said it will grant MF Global’s bankruptcy trustee latitude to “make larger interim distributions of cash to customers now, given the monumental task he faces to sort through the considerable data and claims in order to complete the MF Global liquidation.”

Billboard Called Anti-Semitic Is Quickly Pulled (NYT)
A billboard promoting a budget brand of vodka was taken down Tuesday amid a firestorm of criticism that its advertising slogan was anti-Semitic. “Christmas quality,” the billboard read, “Hanukkah pricing.” The advertisement, which was posted on a two-sided billboard overlooking the West Side Highway near 130th Street late Monday to promote Wodka vodka, also featured a long-haired dog wearing a yarmulke and a smaller dog wearing a Santa hat. Wodka is known for advertising that is intended to draw attention by generating controversy. A previous ad carried the text “Hamptons quality. Newark pricing.” Brian Gordon, who runs MMG, the company that designed the campaign, denied that it was intended to be shock advertising. “We thought people would perceive it as ‘ha ha quirky,’ ” said Mr. Gordon, who was quick to point out that he is Jewish. “But people perceived it as offensive, and because of that, we pulled it.” Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 11.22.11

$$$ Fed Looks to Clarify Intentions [WSJ]

$$$ Europe Banks Seek More Cash From Central Bank [NYT]

$$$ Mohamed El-Erian: “I am worried. We’ve had two bits of unfavorable news in the last 24 hours. One you reported this morning, which is that we have less economic momentum than we thought we had – 2% growth as opposed to 2.5%. The second is that yesterday we had no policy momentum. We’re worried about the concept of stall speed, that 2% growth may not be enough for an economy that still has to de-lever. We put the chance of a recession at one third to one half, which is really high given initial conditions.” [Bloomberg TV]

$$$ Fox Business “finds” Jon Corzine (at his house) [Fox Business]
Continue reading »

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Sure, Bill could let himself get upset about how things are panning out this year but he’s not. And if anyone should be freaking out about the way things are going, you’d better believe it’s him. He’s got mucho personal dinero tied up in this thing and if it goes down big time, it’s gonna be good-bye weekly Target shopping sprees, hello can I fill out a job JCPenney job application. And yet here he is, no freak outs, no panicking, no how am I going to get myself out of this. Everything is fine, there is nothing to worry about. If you were invested with a manager like, for instance, John Paulson, then you could worry. Then it’d be totally understandable to consider yourself fucked- big time. Luckily for you, though, you’re with Pershing and at Pershing, we focus on the big picture. Rome wasn’t built in a day and places like Family Dollar aren’t going to become premier shopping destinations without a little patience. So: Do. Not. Worry. About. Your. Money. All is good. Take a deep breath, calm down, and dry those eyes. We’re all in this together and if Bill’s not crying, you shouldn’t be either. Continue reading »

There’s that famous line that “Every banker knows that if he has to prove that he is worthy of credit, however good may be his arguments, in fact his credit is gone.” It is sort of inspiring to see Jefferies refute that with a combination of (1) pretty good arguments and (2) still existing. At the core of their argument is, basically, “we are not as reliant on fickle overnight funding as you think.” From their letter to clients, shareholders, friends, Sean Egan, etc.:

To be clear at the outset, we do not use or rely on “wholesale funding,” a catch-all term typically used to refer to funding other than core deposits, such as brokered deposits, foreign deposits or commercial paper. We do not have any unsecured overnight borrowings ….

We finance a portion of our long inventory and cover some of our short inventory by pledging and borrowing securities in the form of repurchase or reverse repurchase agreements, respectively. About 87% of all our repo activities use collateral (or inventory) that is eligible for repo transactions with clearing utilities. … Put differently, 87% of our repos end up with clearing utility counterparties who are blind to the Jefferies’ name in the same way that we are blind to their names. … The remaining 13% of our repo activity is currently contracted for a term that, on average, exceeds 80 days. …

Finally, at any time we are concerned about our inventory funding rollover, we obviously have the alternative of reducing inventory through sales in the market. Given the mix of inventory we carry, this is a straightforward exercise, as evidenced by the actions we took two weeks ago and since then in respect of our European sovereign inventory book.

What I take away from that is:
(1) If you believe it, then you should probably feel okay facing JEF on its funding trades, but
(2) if you believe it, then it doesn’t really matter: JEF just isn’t particularly at the mercy of whimsical short-term funding. Continue reading »

2_small_2_bail and Merkin_Capital on And If You Would Take A 98% Pay Cut In Order To Work At Citi, That’s Okay Too: Continue reading »

Yes, the rest of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations members will be there but, fingers crossed, it’ll feel like the Representative from California and the former Goldman Sachs CEO are the only two people in the room. This is her moment. This is the one we’ve been waiting for. Dot will be connected. Spots will be blown up. Stay tuned. [Bloomberg, related]

…and would it kill you to for once tell him you appreciate all he does for you or let him know he looks beautiful, not like you care or anything? You pay more attention to you fantasy football team than you to do him. And when was the time you initiated sex? And no, the ’30 seconds of foreplay and 2 pumps’ nights don’t count. Continue reading »