Archive for December 2011

Opening Bell: 12.19.11

European Ministers Seek $261 Billion In IMF Crisis Funds (Bloomberg)
Euro-area finance ministers will hold a conference call at 3:30 p.m. Brussels time to discuss 200 billion euros ($261 billion) in additional funding through the International Monetary Fund and the mechanics of a so-called fiscal compact that was negotiated at a Dec. 9 European Union summit, according to two people familiar with the planning. “They’ll try to get as much done as they can before Christmas, but it’s doubtful they’ll put markets in a Christmas mood,” Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels, said in an interview. “There is still so much uncertainty.”

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il Is Dead (WSJ)
Mr. Kim died on Saturday of a heart attack while on a train, North Korea’s state media said. A television news announcer, dressed in black and her voice quivering with emotion, said Monday the nation would unite behind Kim Jong Il’s third son, Kim Jong Eun, as North Korea’s new leader.

ECB President Draghi Warns on Euro Zone Break-Up (FT)
In his first interview since becoming ECB president on November 1, Mr Draghi said struggling eurozone countries that quit the currency bloc would face still greater economic pain. For remaining members, European Union law would have been broken and “you never know how it ends really,” he said. Countries that left and devalued their currency would create “a big inflation” and fail to escape from structural reforms that would still have to be implemented “but in a much weaker position,” Mr Draghi told the Financial Times.

Prince Alwaleed Invests $300M in Twitter (Bloomberg)
Alwaleed, ranked the richest Arab businessman this year by Arabian Business magazine, and his investment company agreed to buy a “strategic stake,” Kingdom Holding said today. Alwaleed is the largest individual investor in Citigroup Inc. (C) and his other investments include holdings in Apple Inc. and General Motors Co. Riyadh-based Kingdom Holding jumped as much as 8.9 percent on the local exchange.

RBS Considering Closure Of Equities Business (Bloomberg, earlier)
Shutting or selling the division, including U.K. stockbroker Hoare Govett, are among the options being considered by the bank’s board, though no final decision has been made yet, said the people, who declined to be identified because the discussions aren’t complete. An announcement is expected by the time the bank reports full-year earnings at the end of February, the people said. The equities unit employs about 1,000 people.

‘Occupy’ guys, including bishop, arrested in new anniversary protest (NYP)
Cops busted at least 35 protesters yesterday after they broke into a private park in Manhattan to mark the three-month anniversary of Occupy Wall Street. The marchers also shattered the window of a Starbucks on the corner of Varick and Spring Streets with a brick as they marched uptown…Among those arrested were Bishop George Packard, a former chaplain for the armed services and decorated Vietnam veteran who has acted as the liaison in negotiations between Trinity Church and protesters as the movement had sought permission to use the church owned property as a new base of operations. Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 12.16.11

$$$ House Approves $1T Budget Measure [Bloomberg]

$$$ Moody’s cuts Belgium ratings by 2 notches [Reuters]

$$$ US M&A activity defies European headwinds [FT]

$$$ Watch This Guy Utterly Destroy an Arcade Basketball Machine. It’s mesmerizing. [Kotaku]
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I try to be honest when telling you that a court complaint or SEC filing or research paper is a fun read, just in case you might go read it, though of course there’s no accounting for tastes and I may enjoy many things that you don’t.* And that’s okay. In any case I doubt anyone will find the SEC’s fraud complaints against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac filed today all that fun to read. “Very, very boring” would be more like it. The only bits that I enjoyed were the names of some of the loan programs, including Freddie’s “Touch More Loans” and the Fannie/Countrywide joint effort “Fast and Easy” which, boy, different times.

But there are some fascinating things about the case. A small one: I was kidding when I said “complaints against Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” They’re complaints against former Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd, former Freddie CEO Richard Syron, and a handful of their executives. The SEC signed weird neither-admit nonprosecution agreements with Fannie and Freddie themselves, in which the GSEs agree to help the SEC make its case against their former bosses.

This all seems like very good PR. You are learning, SEC. The neither-admit-nor-deny thing might be awkies, but slapping a big fine on the taxpayer-funded GSEs wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense. And the people who are upset that the SEC are not going after big names connected to the financial crisis have to be happy about the fact that the SEC here is going after the CEOs of big entities that in most people’s minds are intimately connected to the cause of the financial crisis. Suing them is not quite as good as throwing them in jail, but the SEC can’t do that, and this is a start anyway.

The bad news is that the SEC’s case sounds just absolutely terrible. Here it is: Continue reading »

Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on France’s triple-A rating to “negative” from “stable,” indicating there is a 50-50 chance the nation could lose its top investment-grade rating over the next two years. The move came as Fitch also placed its ratings on six other euro-zone nations, including Spain and Italy, on watch for downgrade after it concluded a “comprehensive solution” the region’s debt crisis is “technically and politically beyond reach.” [WSJ]

Bloomberg reported today that, back in July, David Einhorn and some other people decided that (1) betting against European sovereign debt was, and would remain, a good idea, but (2) doing it in CDS form was kind of dumb, so (3) they’d switch to doing it in physical form, by borrowing and shorting the debt. Here’s what Einhorn had to say in his July investor letter:

The letter touched on two risks tied to credit swaps on European sovereign debt, including regulators’ attempts to fashion a Greek bailout in a way that prevented the contracts from paying out. The second risk was the possibility that banks that wrote billions of dollars in credit swaps on sovereign debt might not be able to make good on their obligations should a country such as Greece actually default.

Let’s talk about that first reason for a minute because I think it’s sort of illuminating. The problem is that Europe was in July, and is now, and wow that’s depressing, trying to cobble together a “voluntary” debt exchange where holders of Greek debt happily hand it in to Greece and get back a thing with a 50% face value haircut that is also a piece of crap. If you’re a European bank who owns Greek bonds and CDS to hedge them, and you feel pressured to accept that deal, then you feel like the “insurance” you bought on your bonds should “pay out,” I suppose, though that’s all fairly hypothetical. If on the other hand you’re David Einhorn and you bought CDS and then Greece haircuts its debt, you feel like your bet against Greek debt has been vindicated so it should pay out. But it doesn’t, says ISDA, because the exchange was voluntary and there was no “credit event” under the rules governing your CDS. Continue reading »

Over the past six months or so, Wall Street has laid off a whole bunch of people. Unfortunately, having a job at this very moment does not mean you will 3 months hence. More cuts are a’ coming and according to Rochdale analyst Dick Bové, a lot more. What kind of numbers is he talking about? Let’s see. Morgan Stanley said yesterday that come 2012, 1,600 employees will be relieved of their responsibilities to the firm. Citi is getting rid of 4,000. RBS will be letting a buch of staff go, too, though the Brits have not said how many. Let’s assume a few other firms will add a couple thousand bodies to the count. How many did you get? ‘Cause after carrying the one, Bové estimates “at least another 150,000 will be fired in 2012,” and while no, he won’t show his work, he will tell you this: the government is loving this. Continue reading »

As fans of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit know, many episodes of the drama are often loosely based on crimes that have been “ripped from the headlines.” Over the summer, SVU shot its Dominique Strauss-Kahn show and last Friday, it attempted to roll the tape on an Occupy Wall Street ep. Unfortunately, a crucial scene that was to take place in Zuccotti Park, OWS’s old stomping grounds, was interrupted by real protestors, angry at being made into a storyline (which, according to the writers, was going to “portray OWS in a sympathetic light”). The show’s filming permit was revoked and the shoot was scrapped. Yesterday, the Writers Guild of America, East issued an open letter expressing its disappointment at the turn of events, especially given WGAE and the SVU team’s public support of OWS. Continue reading »

Opening Bell: 12.16.11

Corzine Knew Of Fund Transfer (WSJ)
Former MF Global Holdings Ltd. Chief Executive Jon S. Corzine testified Thursday that he knew about an overseas transfer of funds that has come into focus in recent days as regulators and Congress seek to find out what became of an estimated $1.2 billion in missing customer cash. Mr. Corzine testified, however, that he received assurances that the transfer of millions of dollars to a J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. account in London on Oct. 28, the last business day before MF Global filed for bankruptcy, was approved by at least one official in MF’s back office. “The back office in Chicago explicitly confirmed to me that the funds were properly transferred, and I understood that J.P. Morgan Chase was satisfied,” Mr. Corzine said, adding that he believed some of the confirmations were in writing.

BofA, Goldman, Barclays Have Fitch Ratings Cut (Bloomberg)
The lenders’ long-term issuer default ratings were cut one level to A from A+, Fitch said yesterday in a statement. Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG and BNP Paribas SA also had their grades lowered…“It’s hard to take anything positive from this; it speaks to the sentiment overall on global financial firms right now,” said Michael Nix, who helps manage about $925 million at Greenwood, South Carolina-based Greenwood Capital Inc., including Morgan Stanley (MS) shares. “It also validates what the other raters have already done, and to an extent was expected.”

Italy Government Wins Confidence Vote on Austerity (Reuters)
Italy’s government easily won a confidence vote on its tough austerity package on Friday, the first step in parliamentary approval for sweeping measures aimed at saving the euro zone’s third-largest economy from financial disaster. The Chamber of Deputies approved the 33-billion euro ($43 billion) package, which affects everything from pensions to home ownership taxes, by 495 votes to 88. The plan, contested by Italy’s unions and the opposition Northern League, has been in effect since Monti’s government approved it on December 4. But it needed full parliamentary approval within 60 days to remain in force.

Europe’s Crisis May Hold Seeds of Dealmaking (Bloomberg)
“There are well-positioned acquirers globally looking for bargains,” even if economic pressure has slowed recent European dealmaking, said Gregg Lemkau, head of mergers and acquisitions for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) “One of the drivers in Europe has been historically low valuations and a relatively soft currency.”

Congress Blinks On Shutdown (WSJ)
Congressional leaders—fearful of voters’ wrath over Washington’s bickering and brinkmanship—stepped back Thursday from a possible government shutdown, clearing the way for at least a short-term extension of a payroll tax cut that is set to expire at year’s end.

Regulators Sanction Citi Japan (WSJ)
In a sign of increasing frustration with Citi Japan—which has been sanctioned three times for a range of improper activities since 2004—Japan’s Financial Services Agency slammed the bank’s repeated lack of compliance and its business model, demanding that Citi Japan submit a business improvement plan by Jan. 31.

SEC Sues Former Freddie Mac Chief Executive Richard Syron in New York (Bloomberg)
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued former Freddie Mac Chief Executive Officer Richard Syron in New York.

Christian Bale Attacked by Chinese Guards (NYT)
The actor Christian Bale was assaulted by government-backed guards on Thursday when he tried to visit a blind lawyer who has been illegally confined to his home in eastern Shandong Province. The lawyer, Chen Guangcheng, has emerged as a cause célèbre among the country’s rights advocates, dozens of whom have been similarly roughed up when they tried to break through the cordon that local officials have placed around Mr. Chen’s village…The footage of Mr. Bale’s attempted visit is dramatic. In it, he is seen pleading with the men who guard Dongshigu’s entry points and then retreating as they push and punch him. “Why can I not visit this free man?” he asks repeatedly. The men, dressed in thick green winter coats respond with shouts of “Go away.” Even after they have retreated into their car, the group, which included a translator, was chased for 40 minutes by men in a gray van. Continue reading »

Write-Offs: 12.15.11

$$$ Burton Malkiel on Emanuel Derman: “While quantum electrodynamics is a genuine theory of all reality, financial models are only mediocre metaphors for a part of it.” [WSJ]

$$$ Corzine: “I don’t know how to respond to something that someone said to somebody else to somebody else that is unidentified.” Just like that! [FT]

$$$ Peak credit, peak vol, peak corr [Aleph Blog, PragCap, WSJ]

$$$ Prosecutors think Allen Stanford is faking amnesia [CNBC]

$$$ Credit Suisse marks its two-weeker policy to market [Marketplace]
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From: [redacted at JPMorgan]
To: JPMorgan employees
Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 3:31 PM
Subject: Goodbye

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So Europe’s all better now, or something. The banks are anyway. They have had the money flung at them, in the form of the European Central Bank advancing them tons of medium-term funding at attractive rates and with pretty chill collateral requirements, and now they just have to sit back and be awesome.

Since they’re now all flush and awesome, various people have come out of the woodwork to help them spend their money. (I’m happy to help too! Call me!) One possible answer is “bail out your reprobate governments,” which FT Alphaville have dubbed the “Sarko trade” after a guy who said this:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the ECB’s increased provision of funds meant governments in countries like Italy and Spain could look to their countries’ banks to buy their bonds. “This means that each state can turn to its banks, which will have liquidity at their disposal,” Sarkozy told reporters at the summit in Brussels.

Alphaville point to a equity research note by Morgan Stanley, who estimate that the size here is maybe less than Sarkozy hoped for but much, much more than zero. You can have various views on the desirability and/or plausibility of this.

Another thing the banks could do is take all these gobs of money and actually go lend it to people to, like, buy Portuguese villas and stuff. This seems very broadly speaking like a good thing for them to do, since banks lending to people and businesses is sort of their job. One guy likes this idea: Continue reading »