When The Junior Analyst And The VP Disagree About The Model, Who Is Likely To Be Right?*

Carrick Mollenkamp is a great reporter who currently owns one of my favorite niches: finding insider moles to bring to light behavior at big financial companies that is ambiguously squicky. Today he’s got one that’s close to my heart, and here it is: a junior analyst at Deutsche Bank disagreed about a technical modeling question with his VP.

Wait, what?

Well, here:

At a time when mortgage-backed securities were imploding and customers were fleeing the market, a junior analyst at Deutsche Bank AG protested when he was asked to alter the numbers in a spreadsheet to make a Deutsche security look less risky to ratings agencies, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The analyst, this person said, was asked by a mid-level Deutsche executive in late 2007 to make it appear that the investment would produce more cash than the bank actually expected at certain time points. …

[Ajit] Jain had studied at the Indian Institute of Technology in New Delhi and joined Deutsche in June 2006, according to employment records kept by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. He joined the New York office in September 2007, when the CDO Group was struggling to find investors.

Within a short time of his arrival, according to three people familiar with the matter, Jain raised questions about whether spreadsheets were being improperly altered. His complaints went to senior levels within Deutsche, including its legal and compliance departments, according to people familiar with the matter.

These spreadsheets were cash flow models for some of Deutsche’s CDO deals, which Deutsche gave to ratings agencies to rate those CDOs. They were complicated. How complicated? Here is a lovely detail:

Those spreadsheets were often so large and complex they could take several minutes to open on a computer, according to a person familiar with them. The spreadsheets involved fiendishly complex arrays of inputs and sophisticated calculations, involving everything from the default rates of the mortgages that backed the CDO, to when borrowers would pay off their loans. But one purpose of the spreadsheets was simple: to estimate how much cash the CDOs would generate at certain time points.

I had a computer like that once too! (Er, now.)

This sounds very unpleasant but I’m not sure. You could have two opposite theories:
(1) There was a right thing, which Jain did, and a wrong thing, which his VP told him to do, and then there was a cover-up; or
(2) There were two plausible things, and the VP thought his was right, and Jain thought his was right, and Jain was kind of a prima donna about it, and then there was an abundance-of-caution investigation that concluded that the VP was right or at least plausible (and more senior!).

Obviously (1) is a news story and (2) isn’t. In some parts of the world this is called publication bias. Remember these numbers were cash flow projections – there was no “true” and “false” (I mean, there is, but only in hindsight, and my guess is that both sets of projections were “false”). There’s only more or less plausible, more or less in accord with stated assumptions, more or less in accord with other projections used by DB. There is a lot that you could do that would look fraudulent – say, take internal projections that DB used to manage its risk and massage them for S&P, or claim to use certain assumptions but actually use different ones in modeling the cash flows. And there are other things that you can do that would look, just, messy – say, have one person assume one set of inputs and another assume another.

When Carrick Mollenkamp smells smoke there’s often fire and certainly this sounds like naughty things went on. “Alter” is always a worse word than, like, “change,” and “mak[ing] it appear that the investment would produce more cash than the bank actually expected” is sort of a no-no though who is “the bank” doing the expecting here? But my instinctual sympathies in the string of CDO scandals tend to be with the CDO structurers because things are just generally messy and there are often a lot of plausible ways to come up with projections for an obviously uncertain future.

And then you get hit by the publication bias. Lots and lots of emails get sent at investment banks. If a structuring team sends 1,000 emails saying “good job, everything checks out” and one dumbass analyst says half-jokingly “man, some of these bonds are dogshit,” guess which email gets read at your criminal trial? CDO structurers, of all people, live statistically and stochastically – prosecutors and juries tend to take the worst facts as the most representative. You fuck one sheep!

Here, lots of people on two continents worked on these models. Let’s say there were 20 of them. One thought something smelled kind of funny. Nineteen thought everything was fine. (Or are lying to you! Totally possible.) The one who has complaints gets the press. In most industries, when the junior guy on the team gives his perspective and is overruled by his boss, he either shuts up or eventually gets fired. In banking, he gets an investigation run by an outside law firm. This is why.

Deutsche Analyst Sounded Alarm When Asked to Alter Numbers [ProPublica]

* Obviously the analyst, right?

(hidden for your protection)
Show all comments

134 Responses to “When The Junior Analyst And The VP Disagree About The Model, Who Is Likely To Be Right?*”

  1. The Truth says:

    There goes his chance to be Berkshire CEO

  2. UBS MD says:

    Large complex spreadsheets? We used an abacus.

  3. Buboe says:

    So, if a team of 20 engineers designs an pressure releif vale, and nineteen say it's fine, and one of the posits a scenario in which it may fail spectacularly and asks that it not be manufactured, he's a fringe crackpot, right?
    So how about if he works for Transocean and BP, and the valve is for a deep water oil rig?
    Thanks Matt, but this isn't occuring in a vacuum. I'll take the outside investigation thanks.

    • Tired Joke says:

      Well duh, if it fails spectacularly there will no longer be a vacuum, but the odds of that are pretty slim if 95% of the engineers think it's fine.

      -AIG Offshore Oil Insurance Risk Management Quant

    • Red Pot says:

      How many of the engineers were Aggies? Well, there you go, see?

    • CDO Guy says:

      Hey d-bag, there's a huge difference between mechanical engineering. See, mechanical engineering relies upon known principles of physics, mechanics, chemistry, etc. Financial engineering relies upon assumptions about prepayment speeds, borrower behavior, global macro-environments, property values, etc., all of which are observable historically, but none of which are "known."

      You can say "a metal of x tensile strength will fail when subjected to pressure of y" with some certainty. With finance, you can only say "history tells us that when interest rates do x and property values do y, people have done z.". For example, prior to the recent crisis, people tended to abandon their credit cards prior to their homes. In other words, it's far from certain. Financial models are predicated upon compounding assumptions, not concrete principles of mathematics and science.

      So second guessing one or more forward-looking assumptions in a model is an exercise in self-fellatio. Reasonable people may disagree. The fact that, in hindsight, one person guessed the right outcome and one or more persons didn't isn't evidence of malfeasance. A more appropriate comparison would be to sports handicapping. By all historical evidence, the Packers should have beaten the Giants. The guy that called the Giants shouldn't (necessarily) be hailed as the unsung hero/genius. He simply relied upon a set of assumptions that the majority of others disagreed with, using the same available historical information.

      A third party investigating the particular assumptions utilized isn't a panacea. There is a difference between "aggressive assumptions" and "fraud.". That line is grey, at best. The outcome of the outside investigation is as much of a crapshoot as the original model, albeit biased towards the "innocent investors" (who, presumably, ran their own models, using their own models, which were based on likely different inputs chosen from the same set of available historical data).

      In other words, enjoy watching the circle jerk, and go fuck yourself.



      • CDO Guy says:

        Uh, should have been "between mechanical engineering and financial engineering.". Big ol' "duh" on me.

      • Guest says:


        -Guy who tells it like it is

      • guest says:

        So, it seems that many of you guessed wrong with disastrous results. Based on observable historical data, that would make you unreliable and dangerous.

        • Guesser says:

          Lots of people guessed wrong. Including people who bought homes assuming property values never go down. Including bond investors who insisted on more spread backed by lending to lower-credit borrowers. Including the Congress who insisted on CRA standards and subsidies to people to buy houses who couldn't otherwise afford to own houses.

          A lot of people guessed wrong. Guessing wrong is always dangerous.

          • guest says:

            Too bad for those that believed in ever increasing home prices, this little thing called the Asian crisis was a glimpse into their future.

        • Maverick Capital GP says:

          That's right Guest. I am dangerous.

        • Iceman says:

          I don't like you cuz you're dangerous

      • Edmond_Dantes says:

        Dear CDO Guy

        The long winded and confusing nature of your comment makes me believe you are an ideal CDO Prospectus author.

        Dear Matt

        Deutsche helped structure the Magnetar deal, is levered close to 99:1 (their Taunus USA brokerage is closer to 250:1), and are a bunch of London based punters playing with oblivious German retiree deposits. I trust Ajit on this one.

        • CDO Guy says:

          Dear Mr. Dantes:

          While long-winded, I don't believe anything I wrote was, or should have been, confusing. Prospective modeling of cash flows based ultimately on borrower behavior is different than predicting the effects of physical forces on physical material. Investing, whether in equities or debt, is closer to Vegas than science, and anyone who believe otherwise is a fool. Concise enough?

          And, by the way, I love the Magnetar trade. magnetar took advantage of an arbitrage available in the mis-priced CDS market and the overheated debt demand market. It was not only not illegal, but not unethical.

        • Guest says:

          You don't understand the difference between IFRS and GAAP, you don't know the difference between a holding company and a brokerage and you don't understand how investment bank funding works. When can you start?

          -NYTimes Business Section Editor

      • DB VP says:

        Yeah — What this guy said! <nervous chuckle>

        -Mid-Level Deutsche "Executive"

      • Dang says:

        Well said

      • Screw Derivatives says:

        Dear CDO guy and Matt Levine,

        It is jerks like you who have diminished the respect for Wall Street. Allow me to explain.

        We all know pricing CDOs is an art more than a science yada yada but do the banks mention all the assumptions in their pitch to investors?

        Does the sales team explain that modeling market behaviours requires nonlinear mathematics and conventional education does not teach us how to intuitively think of these nonlinear processes?

        Does the sales team explain that due to the said nonlinear nature of the relationships a 10% error in one of the variables could lead to an error of 100% or more in the final valuation?

        Does the sales team publish the sensitivity analysis of the cash flows?

        The problem with derivatives is that the structurers do one thing which taken in isolation is correct. The Sales team is interested in getting the sale done period. Once the contract is done the traders do whatever they need to manage that position while optimizing their profit. Neither the trader not structurer knows exactly what was pitched to the client while the Sales has no fuckin' clue how structures and traders work.

        Don't tell me you don't know this.

        In conclusion, I request you to go fuck yourselves.

        – IIT grad who interned with a derivatives desk and has pure contempt for Wall Street

        • Screw Derivatives says:

          *sheer contempt

        • guest says:

          The answer to all your questions is yes and if it was no it was because these points were well understood by everyone at the table. I realize this doesn't compute in your simplistic black and white, good and evil view of the world, but for the most part, there was no fool being duped here. Everyone was well aware of what trade they were doing on both sides. It was just a very crowded, levered, wrong trade.

          Maybe in a few years you'll mature enough to realize that what you can pick up about something as a summer intern doesn't even begin to scratch the surface.

          – Someone who has seen more CDO pitches than you have

        • HR Interen says:

          How'd that internship go? Did you get an offer?

        • CDO Guy says:

          Dear Scre Derivatives:

          Yes, sensitivity analyses and underlying assumptions were provided to investors. In some cases, and against my better judgment, actual models were provided to investors so they could sensitivity-test models to their hearts' content using our actual models. The math you reference (10% collateral pool loss = 100% investment loss for certain tranches) was clearly disclosed and understood.

          Yes, yes, yes. Nobody believed the world could collapse. They laughed at John Paulson and thought he was the dumbest shit in the world for shorting this stuff. Hell, they WANTED him to short it, as his doing so created more long opportunity.

          In other words, I politely decline your request and, in turn, request that you go chug a bag of dicks.

          • Screw Derivatives says:

            Re CDO guy and guest,

            Fair enough, I appreciate your points. I just interned for a few weeks while you clearly have more experience, so I take your word for it. I also agree that it was a very crowded and levered trade gone wrong.

            However, I have a couple of suggestions that I think could really restore some credibility to derivatives as a product.

            Anyone who travels on air or ship or runs a chemical plant knows the risk involved. So if you want to design a ship or a chemical reactor, the engineering handbook mandates factors of safety. Every manufacturer has to satisfy these standards. On top of that, they can make the pricing changes or design changes.

            However, when a derivative is priced, there can be significant differences in pricing. So let's say bank A prices a structure at 101 while bank B prices a structure at 99. Suppose the client goes with B but turns out B had a completely wrong model, whose fault is it?

          • Screw Derivatives says:


            You would say, well it was the customer's mistake for going with bank B and in the future they should go with bank A. However, as we spoke earlier the pricing is complex and there is absolutely no guarantee that bank A's model is "right" either. Sitting at t=0 (when the term of the structure starts) there is no way of saying whether your model is right or wrong.

            This is in a nutshell ( a big one :P) is my problem with how derivatives are approached.

            So my suggestions
            – Evolve standard pricing models for Vanilla derivatives that lead to a consensus price. Individual banks can add markups on the basis of that

            – Define product performance metrics for derivatives and make that publicly available information

            Of course, these could be naive and maybe they are not possible. But I think a more constructive debate could be conducted on derivatives which should be led by Wall Street itself. Right now it has become "Wall St vs Main St" or "Guns dont kill people" kind of an argument.


        • Bitchtern says:

          Here in America, son, we have a saying: Caveat Emptor. Buyer beware. No one was forced to buy the securities. No one was forced to believe the ratings agencies. (Which begs the question who ever believed those ass-hats in the frist place?).

          Someone call the the wah-bulance, we have someone crying about market risk. Oh, your complex hodge podge of shit mortgages written by some college dropout working for 25 bps of loan value didn't work out for you? I never saw it coming.


        • Really? says:

          Conventional education does not teach us how to intuitively think of nonlinear processes?

          Did you never graph x^2 in middle school? (It looks like a U)

          If you can't understand what you are buying, then don't buy it. Common sense.

      • Hector Hernandez, IV says:


        Seriously, who would have thought the real estate market was out of whack?

        Guys who owns 5 underwater duplexes in Chula Vista

  4. wheel reinventor says:

    We could have helped you out.

    -INTEX sales guy

  5. Door Mattt says:

    I'm gay for huge spreadsheets of squab.

  6. Guest says:

    Once you go f**king sheep, you don't go back f**king Prabjeet.

  7. Myopia says:

    Pricing of illiquid and or exotic products has always been more dark art than science. By 2007 most people not 'in the business' imagine/d it was all hard numbers and cruching cubes of data. The truth was and as far as I know still is far more finger in the …
    Changing cash projection 'forecasts' is such a opaque term. A junior analsyst just out of college has no idea of the market convention for pricing anything! On the other hand if they were changing cashflow to boost the PV thats a whole different issue.
    On the wider/deeper issue of putting your hand up when your uncomfortable with a process or procedure which is supported by senior management the truth is noone does it. Whistle blowing doesnt happen. Everyone has too much of a vested interest in the status quo.

  8. DB Trader says:

    The Analyst was not a team player

  9. Strong sell says:

    "I once had a car like that too" – that was good.

  10. Motives in place says:

    Curryhead didn't get his Samosa!

  11. Wuss says:

    Matt, please dump the "Slate contrarian model of journalism." It's not a good one.

    How reasonable is it that the VP was right (and a VP is a 30 year old prick in a bank, not a mid-level manager) and the analyst was wrong when it turned out that reality ended up looking more like the analyst's version? I've never felt so strongly about something that I'm willing to risk my paycheck over it, and this brown guy did. Think about that for a second: he gets a bad rep and he's back in Delhi with the cows. But to you, he's a prima donna.

    Find your humanity.

  12. Guest says:

    Like the choice of pictures.

  13. Unsilent Majority says:

    What the article failed to mention was that the complex modeling was performed on a Commodore 64 computer with the 1541 floppy drive. Give credit where credits due…

  14. ubs peon says:

    not agreeing with your superiors and pointing out their flaws is the NKI

  15. Guest says:

    takes balls of steel to do this stuff guys!

  16. macro_bloat says:


    vox populi vox dei

    • Bitchtern says:

      Correct. That's why we have "reality" TV shows saturating the airwaves.

      Bread and circuses, man. That's all they care about. Then when they see someone making more than them they get all pissy. Yet, they couldn't imagine working past 6 pm, let alone through prime
      time television.

  17. Rep A Weiner says:

    does anyone have a pair of velcro gloves I can borrow? That's sheep's looking lonely.

    • Hand of God says:

      Rep A Weiner sometimes other animals hide under the hide of sheep. Why don't you grab your velcros and wait :-) it's on it's way.

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