• 11 May 2012 at 2:36 PM

The Tale Of A Whale Of A Fail

Hi! Would you like to talk about the London Whale? Sure you would. The amount of misunderstanding of our poor beleaguered beluga is staggering, so I figured we could try to embark on a voyage of discovery together. Maybe we’ll figure it out. Along the way we’ll talk a tiny bit about the Volcker Rule. I am going to try to talk very slowly and simplify things so if you are pretty financially sophisticated you could skip this post (I’ve linked to some better things to read at the end), or just get really angry at me in the comments. Also this post is terrifyingly long, sorry!

So. You are JPMorgan. People come to you and give you money, because you are a bank, and they want you to hold on to their money for them. You pay them interest so you need to invest their money to earn interest – ideally you earn more than you pay so you can make money and pay bonuses and stuff. You invest that money, broadly speaking, by lending it to other people who want to do things with it. Some of those people are buying houses, some of them are running businesses. Those are the main ones. (Some are buying cars, or educations; others are running countries, or municipalities. Ignore that.)

Now a tangent, which is long but important. Some of the money that you lend to people running businesses, you actually lend to people running businesses – like, they come to you and ask you for a loan and you give it to them. Some of it you don’t, because you don’t have enough good loans to make – not enough people come to you for loans because they’re not building factories because Obama or whatever, or people do come to you for loans but it’s for terrible things so you say no. So you have “excess deposits,” deposits that you haven’t loaned out, and you invest those. You invest those in securities – that is, loans that someone already made and packaged into bonds to be bought and sold on the market. Since you are by hypothesis JPMorgan, you do this investing of excess deposits through your Chief Investment Office, or CIO, which is staffed by cetaceans. You can tell how much of this investing JPMorgan does because they disclose it on page 33 of their Form 10-Q filed with the SEC yesterday:

Now these investments are absolutely 100% without any doubt whatsoever “proprietary” in the sense that you have bought them with money and hope for them to pay you back with interest, as opposed to hoping to sell them immediately to a customer. And there is a thing called the Volcker Rule intended to prohibit “proprietary” trading. So this portfolio violates the Volcker Rule, right? No, not at all. The Volcker Rule applies to proprietary positions held in the trading book and intended to be sold within 60 days. As a rough cut, it appears that the CIO positions are mostly longer-term, which is what you’d expect from a bank investing its deposits that would otherwise be put in 3-to-7-year corporate loans or 30-year mortgages.*

Okay so now you’re JPMorgan and you’ve got about $375 billion worth of securities in the CIO – alongside some $700 billion of loans (page 87 of the 10-Q), of which $115bn are in your commercial bank (lending to businesses – page 28), $70bn are in your investment bank (lending to bigger businesses – page 16), $240bn are in retail (basically mortgages and stuff – page 18), and $187bn are in card services & auto (credit cards, car loans, student loans – page 25). So you have $185bn of corporate loans, plus whatever chunk of that $375n CIO position is corporate bonds, which seems to be about $60bn (page 92). And you have something called “lending-related commitments,” meaning revolving credit commitments where you have agreed to lend companies money if they ask for it – that number is almost $1 trillion (page 51), presumably almost all corporate. Add to that the fact that your investment bank involves buying and selling lots of corporate bonds as a market-maker, and doing derivatives with corporations where they might owe you money (something like $100bn, page 51 again), and you get the sense that JPMorgan has a lot of exposure to corporate credit. Meaning that if corporations start going bankrupt, JPMorgan will lose a lot of money.

That’s obvious – they’re a bank, that’s what happens to banks, they lend money and if the borrowers don’t pay it back then they are sad. Here if none of their corporate borrowers (leaving aside governments, mortgage borrowers, etc.) pays them back a cent, they lose in round numbers $250 billion on loans, $100 billion on trading receivables, and up to $1 trillion more if those borrowers draw their revolvers before defaulting (as they are wont to do).

THAT WOULD BE TERRIBLE.

But here is another important thing to realize. If instead of defaulting, companies just Became Shakier Credits – that is, if the market decided that all those companies looked less likely to pay their debts – JPMorgan would, to a first approximation, be pretty okay. Because to some rough approximation JPMorgan doesn’t care about the day-to-day swings in creditworthiness of their borrowers; they care about getting paid back at the end. Banks do a thing called “maturity transformation,” meaning that in some loose sense their social function is to lend money to companies and then wait for it to be paid back, instead of just consigning those companies to borrowing afresh every day from fickle liquidity-hungry investors. This is reflected in their accounting: the loans are reflected on an accrual basis; that is, there is some loss reserve against them which can change as they get less likely to be repaid, but JPMorgan doesn’t book a profit or loss every time the market value of those loans goes up or down. Similarly the CIO securities are for the most part “available-for-sale,” meaning again that JPMorgan’s income (for accounting) doesn’t reflect changes in their value, unless and until they’re sold for a profit or loss.

So now we have to get a little bit technical and we can’t avoid it, I am sorry, but here we are, we’ll hold hands and go slow and it will be okay. You want to hedge your risk that things will go horribly pear-shaped and lots of your borrowers don’t pay you back. (You can handle some regular number of them not paying you back – you’re a bank, that’s your job – but if things are worse than expected and a lot of them go belly-up that’s a problem for you.) One thing that you could do is just buy massive quantities of something called CDS, for “credit default swaps,” which function to a first approximation like insurance on corporate debt and pay off if a particular corporation defaults. You could buy CDS on every company you lend to in the amounts that you lend, but (1) this would eat up all your profits and (2) you can’t really, it doesn’t trade for all of them. But you could instead buy CDS on an index – basically a contract that references 125 big companies, and if some of them default it pays off a little and if all of them default it pays off a lot. That won’t exactly match your profile – why would you be lending to those 125 companies and no others? – but the idea here is that if things go horrible, they will go horrible across the board, and your payouts on the index will have some rough match with your losses on your lending. Just a rough match, not perfect.

286 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (286)

  1. Posted by dumb | May 11, 2012 at 2:44 PM

    Longest post on Dealbreaker ever, Matt you have outdone yourself….. Happy Friday everyone…

  2. Posted by Jaleo | May 11, 2012 at 2:45 PM

    Wow. Just wow.

  3. Posted by Tolstoy | May 11, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Holy cow that was long.

  4. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    A three page post. Go ahead and treat yourself to an early Friday Matt.

  5. Posted by tl;dr i tried | May 11, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Matt I want you to have my babies.

  6. Posted by Put_Option | May 11, 2012 at 2:49 PM

    I'm exhausted from three pages of reading, but was it finally time for JPM to have an outright position? I'm bearish and enter curve trade. Oops I have to re-balance. $2b loss. Trigger Volker and pundits bitching about banks.

  7. Posted by mrp | May 11, 2012 at 2:51 PM

    examining my motives while furiously mumbling "tldr" in the corner of Minetta's

  8. Posted by bored | May 11, 2012 at 2:52 PM

    too long. didn't read.

  9. Posted by pazzo83 | May 11, 2012 at 2:52 PM

    Just a bit verbose, Matt.

    – L Tolstoy

  10. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 2:54 PM

    Anyone else stop after page 1 ?

  11. Posted by Cut Me | May 11, 2012 at 2:56 PM

    You're the one who broke my heart, you're the reason my world fell apart, you're the one who made me cry, yet I'm still in love with you and I don't know why. I cried today… not because I miss you… or even wanted you… but because I realized I'm gonna be all right without you.

    -Excel Chart Wizard Button

  12. Posted by Jim | May 11, 2012 at 2:58 PM

    3 pages Matt? Really? You honestly thought people would read three pages devoid of Bess' wit?

  13. Posted by Anonymous | May 11, 2012 at 2:58 PM

    what is this?

  14. Posted by BofH | May 11, 2012 at 2:58 PM

    "$375n" should be "$375bn". Your argument is invalid.

  15. Posted by Gold Metal | May 11, 2012 at 3:00 PM

    Finishing this was literally the greatest single achievement of my life

  16. Posted by Mario Mysticeti, CFA | May 11, 2012 at 3:01 PM

    Matt Levine : average finance blogger; Blue whale : sea otter

    -AIG Marine Biology Quant

  17. Posted by PermaGuestII | May 11, 2012 at 3:09 PM

    Isn't the basic problem the fact that JPM is just too damned big to manage, let alone understand?

    After all, it seems like the trade would have worked OK had it not been so large that it started moving the entire market.

    -guy who notes that the reason the Titanic hit the iceberg in the first place was because she was too unwieldy to steer

  18. Posted by Ice Man | May 11, 2012 at 3:16 PM

    Page 1? How about paragraph 1?

  19. Posted by The_Analyst | May 11, 2012 at 3:24 PM

    Let's see, you cited source document several times, sufficiently explained (but without grossly oversimplifying) what (likely/effectively) happened and the concepts involved, and wrapped it all together with some references to others who made decent arguments. By far best all around effort I've seen to explain "The JPM Situation."

    Hope you didn't put in an 18-hr day yest (and back in the office by 7 today) to put this thing together (or take it apart, I suppose).

  20. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:25 PM

    This will be perfect for the Sunday deuce that lasts… 3 hours? 4 hours? I honestly don't know. I've never read anything that approaches this length

  21. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:26 PM

    Putting all the footnotes on the 3rd page was a nice touch!

  22. Posted by teaching moment | May 11, 2012 at 3:34 PM

    Thanks for the insight Einstein.

  23. Posted by Insider | May 11, 2012 at 3:39 PM

    At the risk of being serious, which I HATE to do on DB, this was epic, and the WSJ, FT, etc. should just scrap all their reporting and link to this, since they don't have a tenth of the clue you do.

    p.s. nice attributions, Peter Tchir in particular has been all over this for weeks

  24. Posted by trojan_ | May 11, 2012 at 3:42 PM

    Matt needs a little less Faulkner, a lot more Hemmingway

  25. Posted by Matt's Mom | May 11, 2012 at 3:44 PM

    Sweetie, this is the best Mother's Day gift you've ever gotten me

  26. Posted by Helpful | May 11, 2012 at 3:48 PM

    Despite all of the hostility, I actually found this quite insightful.

    -Guy who is actually being sincere

  27. Posted by guesticles | May 11, 2012 at 3:51 PM

    Matt, sometimes you absolutely fucking deliver

    – Guy who really wanted to hate you because he resists change, but who was won over by intelligent analysis and 10th grade diction

  28. Posted by A dude | May 11, 2012 at 3:53 PM

    Without seeming sarcastic myself, I agree

    -Guy who likes Matt

  29. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:55 PM

    It's not hositility. Matt's like the girlfriend we want to get in a fight with just so we can make-up fuck.

  30. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:56 PM

    Do you have any idea how many times I hit refresh on Dealbreaker waiting for this article today?

  31. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:56 PM

    I felt violated when I finally came to words NEXT PAGE

  32. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 3:58 PM

    This was a whale of a post

  33. Posted by Young gun | May 11, 2012 at 4:11 PM

    I'm going to put this on my resume

  34. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:11 PM

    Original…

  35. Posted by creepdoutguest | May 11, 2012 at 4:16 PM

    uhh…you're on your own there pal.

    -guy who thinks he stands for the rest of the audience when he says he really enjoys matt's analysis but never, ever thinks of him as the girl he wants to fuck

  36. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:22 PM

    I'll need web history

    -D Loeb

  37. Posted by Easy now | May 11, 2012 at 4:24 PM

    Pretty sure it was an analogy

  38. Posted by Puck It | May 11, 2012 at 4:27 PM

    Does Dealbreaker pay for Matt's espresso or Red Bull (he's got to be on something to write this much, right?)?

    If DB stops, will he write short, pithy, witty posts?

    Can DB pay for my espresso or Red Bull so I can actually wade through all this?

  39. Posted by PermaGuestII | May 11, 2012 at 4:30 PM

    Think Faulkner understood finance better than Hemmingway, though: substitute "mortgages" for "cotton" in Jason Compson's rant about NY speculators and it could've come out of the mouths of OWS.

  40. Posted by guesticles | May 11, 2012 at 4:34 PM

    Adderall's a hell of a drug

  41. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:36 PM

    NIce article; thanks for not trying to be overly witty

  42. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:38 PM

    The sequel to Inception is going to be based on this trade; a hedge within a hedge.

  43. Posted by obvious | May 11, 2012 at 4:39 PM

    Ummm, 3 pages, lots of apologies. Here is an explanation of the whale in just a few lines:
    1) The bank wants earnings to justify bonuses.
    2) The bank knows that it has a put from The Bernank on the downside.
    3) The bank knows it has bonuses each year on the upside.
    4) Lending is a really slow way to accrue earnings.
    5) Leveraging up is a great way to get earnings, especially with a put from the Bernank.
    6) Woops, but maybe it is illegal to "prop trade".
    7) Better call it something else then. I like the sound of "hedge".
    8) Get a model which pretends to hedge something allowing us to lever it up (Matt explains the ruse above). Pretend our trade is an "investment".
    9) Uh oh, positions moving against us. Let's double down!
    10) repeat 9) above until profit or bust.
    11) Sharks smell blood in the water, everyone knows the whale is bleeding, call The Bernank!
    12) Dimon gives "whocuddaknowdit!!" speech.

  44. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:52 PM

    hahahaha

  45. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 4:52 PM

    Matt: nice self-call on the second link p. 3, para 2.

  46. Posted by juniormistmaker | May 11, 2012 at 4:59 PM

    I did it!

  47. Posted by Sanjay Sinha | May 11, 2012 at 5:00 PM

    As part of the commercial banking group at a regional bank, we pride ourselves in underwriting risk. We only lend to businesses that are in our geographic footprint and only if we understand the business model and have a good understanding of the management team. Once we make a loan, we own it and never sell it down; we don't buy an insurance policy against it; we are held accountable for it and; we see it thru maturity. You know, the old fashion way of underwriting and managing risk.

    It is time to go back to the basics.

  48. Posted by Avid Reader | May 11, 2012 at 5:04 PM

    GodDAMNit people!

    Anyway, good stuff, Matt!

  49. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 5:07 PM

    Wrong site, Walter Wriston…

  50. Posted by im_new_here | May 11, 2012 at 5:08 PM

    Great article, but Matt: Does Bess give you a delicious cookie every time you write "pear-shaped"?

  51. Posted by The_Analyst | May 11, 2012 at 5:12 PM

    Indeed but the Iceberg didn't move against the Titanic after some bbg articles glorified the ship's size, strength, etc.

  52. Posted by The_Analyst | May 11, 2012 at 5:13 PM

    in reality, they'd just copy/paste most of it without attribution.

  53. Posted by A dude | May 11, 2012 at 5:14 PM

    Save your "The Bernank" shit for the rest of the tin foil hat commenters at ZH

  54. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 5:27 PM

    That is the dumbest fucking comment I've ever read. Ever.

  55. Posted by guestdude | May 11, 2012 at 5:30 PM

    Let me guess, you drive a white 1998 honda accord in pristine condition and make love to your wife once a month with the lights off

  56. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 5:34 PM

    Yes, but you also underwrite small piss-ant loans to small piss-ant clients, and leave the big boy underwriting to the big boys. The world is a big scary, place – it's cute that you've insulated yourself from it – but if it's just the same we'd like to continue living in it.

  57. Posted by loves long ml posts | May 11, 2012 at 5:44 PM

    i just came

  58. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 6:22 PM

    Matt should be put in front of Congress to explain finance.

    Seriously.

  59. Posted by UBS Love Quant | May 11, 2012 at 6:35 PM

    Matt Levine doesn't take nicely to being cut off in mid-sentence

    – Guy with Matt crush

  60. Posted by obvious | May 11, 2012 at 6:42 PM

    You must be right, VAR really works and is a valid measure of risk. Sorry to upset your world. Got my tin foil hat on nice and snug.

  61. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 6:48 PM

    Your content is your post name, obvious. Thank you for schooling us with your pathetic Cliff Notes.

  62. Posted by Newalgier | May 11, 2012 at 6:55 PM

    I'm with Obvious. The bank's social purpose is to accept the duration mismatch. Accepting credit risk is part of that deal. You don't like the risk, don't make the loan. It's like Enron thinking that ice cream stands should be hedging their weather risk: owning weather risk is what you open an ice cream stand for, and every ice cream salesman knows it.

  63. Posted by Bruno the hedgehog | May 11, 2012 at 7:04 PM

    I was pretty much following you through the first two paragraph on deposits and loans, but I must admit you lost me with all the complex math in the rest of the article. Still don't see how this trade could lose money. My only takeaway is that you obviously want to rail this Lisa character from alphaville.

    – Bruno Iksil

  64. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 8:00 PM

    I almost finished it and I am very proud of myself.

    – Greg Smith

  65. Posted by Guestttt | May 11, 2012 at 8:22 PM
  66. Posted by florida | May 11, 2012 at 8:44 PM

    He can't handle the truth.

  67. Posted by Meistro | May 11, 2012 at 9:38 PM

    As we learned from AIG 2008, if there were massive bankruptcy's, then the hedges would fail due to counterparty risk and so the hedge isn't a hedge at all. . . JPM should just be a bank, and take losses if the economy goes down, just like everyone else.

  68. Posted by Woland5 | May 11, 2012 at 11:54 PM

    this is gold, you idiot! I can't believe you getting it for free.

  69. Posted by Dear Senator | May 12, 2012 at 12:02 AM

    Finally someone made a sense on how well-intentioned pros could blow away 2 blns in few months.

    – Ranking Member of Senate Finance Committee.

  70. Posted by Guest | May 12, 2012 at 12:02 AM

    Jesus wept.

  71. Posted by Peon_analyst | May 12, 2012 at 2:40 AM

    I micro-slept a few times towards the end but was well worthit. Well done!

  72. Posted by visitor | May 12, 2012 at 2:42 AM

    Matt, page 2

    "Think of it as: … moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit."

    Doesn't sound like a great investment.

  73. Posted by Tanto | May 12, 2012 at 2:49 AM

    Nice one Herman.

  74. Posted by ZZZ | May 12, 2012 at 10:57 AM

    I stopped at Levine

  75. Posted by Matt>CFA | May 12, 2012 at 1:11 PM

    Finished it!

    Did I just pass Level 2?

  76. Posted by Guest | May 12, 2012 at 3:38 PM

    If you're a fan of duration mismatch, I'm sure you're doing all your banking with an S&L. Oh, wait, they don't exist anymore…

  77. Posted by silkop | May 12, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    You mention that the solution "can't be to ban hedging". But of course, it can be just that! Why allow a BANK to essentially issue UNSECURED loans in the first place? Loans that have to be insured by seeking out "correlated" assets or hedges? FFS, if you are a BANK you should only lend to clients if they can provide sufficient securities that you can take away when they default. You are not supposed to be an angel institution that partakes in others' risk. Banks routinely (used to) act this way in the mortgage business – why not act the same in corporate lending? BANKS should not be in the business of providing risk capital – that is what stock IPOs are designed for. Hoping that your correlations turn out for the best is an egg-head fallacy. This is the core of the problem, the whole rest is just obfuscation geared toward idiots in suits who can't see the forest for the trees.

  78. Posted by The_Analyst | May 12, 2012 at 5:37 PM

    You realize vanilla corporate lending is risk capital, right? If banks were to lend only to the most credit-worthy firms, well, fuck I'm not going to explain this to you since it seems pretty obvious you're not going to get it, anyway.

  79. Posted by silkop | May 12, 2012 at 5:53 PM

    You see, this inability to explain is your problem just as it is a problem of asshole bank CEOs. Sooner or later it will be pointed out to them by politicians "who are not going to get it, anyway" as well when the mob "woh is not going to get it, anyway" knocks on the doors of their offices.

  80. Posted by cinco | May 12, 2012 at 6:48 PM

    Good job Matt! Go get a couple of margs.

  81. Posted by Sam Houston | May 12, 2012 at 10:54 PM

    Matt,

    Thank you. I am a middle school teacher in Texas. I sharing this with my students on Monday. You are the Bil Bryson of financial writing.

  82. Posted by Sam Houston | May 12, 2012 at 11:01 PM

    I am sharing this with my students on Monday.

  83. Posted by Tobacco Advertising | May 13, 2012 at 12:11 AM

    You actually make it appear really easy together with your presentation but I find this topic to be actually
    something that I believe I might never understand.
    It sort of feels too complicated and very large for me.
    I’m taking a look ahead on your subsequent submit, I will attempt to get the cling of it!

  84. Posted by unwanted guest | May 13, 2012 at 12:47 AM

    that should land you "Favorite Teacher" in the yearbook.

  85. Posted by '09 | May 13, 2012 at 1:41 AM

    dartmouth alum?

  86. Posted by .Bo | May 13, 2012 at 1:06 PM

    Obviously Matt didn't leave GS for an improved work/life balance.

  87. Posted by buboe | May 14, 2012 at 12:23 AM

    I did.
    Well worth it.
    Good luck with your career in finance.

  88. Posted by clara | May 14, 2012 at 12:34 AM

    hilarious! i literally LOL at this one…

  89. Posted by Guest | May 14, 2012 at 1:33 AM

    que?

    "you’re paying for something that moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit"

  90. Posted by lolwut | May 14, 2012 at 7:41 AM

    I read the whole thing. Give me a cookie.

    Anyway, there is a much simpler explanation for this: the whales trades were poached. It is no coincidence that his trades are booking a massive loss only a month or two after he was the subject of so much media attention. In some sick way, Matt you can be blamed along with the rest of them.

    Let's look back to the LTCM hedge fund collapse. They relentlessly sold equity vol and made tons of derivative bets. Once they got in trouble, their positions became available to other entities (merits of how they obtained are irrelevant – point being in each case their massive positions came to light via some medium, as is the case here today).

    Next thing you know, everyone and their mother is pushing your trade against you, knowing you will eventually yield and cover, making them money. This is how free markets work. The sad thing is, had his activity never came to light, these trades probably would have worked out. Sadly the press will spin this as recklessness on JPMs part rather than a failure to keep confidential information confidential on the medias part and the resulting vulturing by hedge funds.

  91. Posted by Guest | May 14, 2012 at 8:10 AM

    So, the "trades probably would have worked out" if those pesky counterparties had only behaved, and JPM was victimized because the trades became public? Um, no, not really. If these were truly hedges, then there would be opposite balance sheet positions that would benefit. If they allowed them to morph into more naked exposures (it appears they did), then they're on their own with this beast. Being too big for a market is always an important trading consideration, and whales make themselves public. Since you can only exit at the mercy of everyone else, and we ALWAYS know who it is, on the other side, who's over their skis, all this proves is that even big organizations sometimes forget the laws of trading physics…

  92. Posted by Realist | May 14, 2012 at 8:50 AM

    obvious is telling the truth, and he gets roasted for it. Too much JPM/GS/FED dick licking….

  93. Posted by Realist | May 14, 2012 at 9:05 AM

    You must be over 30 years old. silkop, great post.

  94. Posted by HFguy | May 14, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    I bet DB had to get the IT to program "Next Page" so that Matt could post his stuff.

  95. Posted by Guest | May 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM

    Social purpose? Accept duration mismatch? Viewing risk as a static?

    Second dumbest post on here.

  96. Posted by obvious | May 14, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    Here are some more pathetic Cliff Notes for you http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/12/business/jpmorg

  97. Posted by Realist | May 14, 2012 at 11:48 AM

    "You are not supposed to be an angel institution that partakes in others' risk." What do people not understand about this? It's a freaking simple concept. Banks are not funds, call Citadel for that.

  98. Posted by NJustice4all | May 14, 2012 at 12:01 PM

    Totally agree – argues for a reinstatement of Glass Steagall

  99. Posted by Realist | May 14, 2012 at 12:11 PM

    SS is sinking….

  100. Posted by Realist | May 14, 2012 at 12:18 PM

    obvious, You can't offer any perspective that may fall out of line with these knotzees. Dudes gonna slurp JD until they get axed.

  101. Posted by Ken | May 14, 2012 at 3:18 PM

    Wouldn't CS01 be the appropriate risk metric

  102. Posted by t li | May 14, 2012 at 11:50 PM

    typo?

    "you’re paying for something that moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit."

    shouldn't be "… and up a lot when it worsens a bit" ?

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