The Tale Of A Whale Of A Fail

So you could probably try to buy index CDS – sometimes this is called CDX, after a particular index that is traded a lot, think of it as standing for “Credit Default indeX” because in finance, true story, “index” starts with an “x” – on, what, $1.35 trillion of corporate exposure. But you won’t do that for bunches of reasons. One is that there’s not nearly enough of it – all of the index CDS in the world, combined, including investment-grade and high-yield debt, tranched and untranched, American and European and Australian, everything, adds up to about $11.2 trillion of “notional” (just the amount that is “insured”), and for you to get 12% of that seems pretty hard and for you to get the right 12% – the stuff that correlates with your risk – seems impossible. Another is that you would basically be spending all your profits from lending** on the CDS, so you’d have no money left over to do things like buy computers or rent office space or pay bonuses. A third is that, the way CDS works, it is accounted for on a mark-to-market basis, but remember that your loans are not (see two paragraphs ago). So if credit got better, you would have a creepy loss in your income statement because you would “lose money” on your CDS and not “make money” on your loans and securities. If you are a bank, “losing money” for accounting purposes is actually a big deal, not only because people get mad at you and stuff but also because it affects how well capitalized you are – lose enough money, on a mark-to-market basis, and you could get shut down. (This, again, is part of why you don’t take mark-to-market gains and losses on your loans.)

That is your problem – you want to hedge against a disaster, but you can’t just buy insurance against anything bad happening. So what you do is you conceive of a trade that:

  • pays you plenty of (real) money on a disaster, but
  • doesn’t cost you a lot of (real or fake/mark-to-market) money on a non-disaster, like regular market moves

What is that trade?

Well it starts by buying credit protection on things that make you a lot of money if things go bad. What you’re looking for here is a concept loosely called “leverage,” which means loosely that you don’t pay very much now but get a lot of money if things go bad very quickly. Think of it as: rather than pay for something that moves down a bit when credit improves a bit and up a bit when it worsens a bit, you’re paying for something that moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit. Some types of protection that do that are:

  • buying very short-dated credit protection, like a credit index set to expire in December 2012, so that if things get really bad really fast you are ready for it,
  • buying protection on something called “tranches,” which pay you relatively more for the next few defaults among the companies in the index, rather than paying you the same amount for all defaults in that index, and/or
  • buying protection on high-yield indexes (junk bonds!), which are likely to go bankrupt faster if things get bad

It seems very likely that JPMorgan’s CIO did some or all of the above. It is hard to know! There is a deep mystery – if you like mysteries (and derivatives!) you can read the links above, but the deepest part of the mystery is that when all the hedge funds were complaining to Bloomberg about how JPMorgan was writing lots of protection on CDX.IG.NA.9 (next paragraph), no one was complaining that they were buying the protections mentioned above. I have no solution to the mystery and neither, it appears, does anyone else outside of JPMorgan. [Update: untrue! Meet me in the usual place.***]

Okay anyway though, this hasn’t solved any of your problems except maybe the size one (because you are buying lesser amounts of more intense protection). You are still paying money for protection, and you still lose money if credit improves. So you do the second half of this trade: you “write protection” (sell CDS) on the broad index. This is, again, very approximately like selling an insurance policy: you take in money now, and pay out some money if the companies in that index default. JPMorgan’s CIO very clearly did exactly that, on an index called the CDX.IG.NA.9 10-year, which despite the name matures in 2017. Intuitively – though it doesn’t quite work this way for curve trades so if you know about credit trading you’ll want to skip the rest of this sentence – you need to sell more of this broad protection than you bought in the previous paragraph, because what you bought in the previous paragraph was more intense than what you’re selling, so that’s why the whale sold so very much protection on this index.****

So what have you done? Something in outline like the following:

  • You are getting money in on one end by selling protection and paying it out on the other by buying protection, so you are not paying out all of your profits.
  • You have a position that is relatively neutral to credit market moves: if credit markets move up a bit, your big CDS-writing trade moves up a bit (you make some money), and your smaller but more intense CDS-buying trade moves down a lot (which, multiplied by the smaller size, means you lose some money, and they sort of offset). This is called being “DV01 neutral” but don’t worry about it. The point is that you don’t have huge mark to market losses when markets go up or down regular amounts.
  • You have a position that makes a lot of money on bigger moves. So if a bunch of companies go bankrupt your really intense trade pays off a lot, while your less intense trade doesn’t cost that much. So in the really bad state of the world this is a good hedge for you. This is called being “long convexity” or “gap risk” but don’t worry about it.

There is much complexity swept under the rug here but the concept is a bet something like this:

  • Take 100 companies
  • For each one that goes bankrupt, you pay me $2
  • For the first five that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $1 each
  • For the next five that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $3
  • For the next ten that go bankrupt, I’ll pay you $5
  • If more than 20 go bankrupt, you don’t get any more – I’ve paid you the max of $70.

You lose a bit but not a lot if things stay good, you break even if things go mediocre, and you do great if things are really bad. (But there’s some horizon where if things are really really bad, more than 35 defaults, you start to lose again. This may or may not be a feature of JPMorgan’s bets.)

It seems fairly certain that in broad concept this is what JPMorgan’s Chief Investment Office was doing. But the above allows for lots of nuance. You want a hedge that is basically flat when things are basically okay, and pays out a lot when things are terrible. But define “flat,” and “okay,” and “a lot,” and “terrible.” These are hard judgments and are influenced by your expectations about the world. If you think that there are likely to be only 2-3 defaults, then the bet above looks like a real disaster hedge: it loses money in the expected case but pays off a lot if there are a staggering, unlikely 20 defaults. But if you think that there are likely to be 30-40 defaults, then the bet above looks ridiculously optimistic – not a hedge at all, but rather something that loses money if things are at the bad end of expectations.

(hidden for your protection)
Show all comments

286 Responses to “The Tale Of A Whale Of A Fail”

  1. dumb says:

    Longest post on Dealbreaker ever, Matt you have outdone yourself….. Happy Friday everyone…

  2. Jaleo says:

    Wow. Just wow.

  3. Tolstoy says:

    Holy cow that was long.

  4. Guest says:

    A three page post. Go ahead and treat yourself to an early Friday Matt.

  5. tl;dr i tried says:

    Matt I want you to have my babies.

  6. Put_Option says:

    I'm exhausted from three pages of reading, but was it finally time for JPM to have an outright position? I'm bearish and enter curve trade. Oops I have to re-balance. $2b loss. Trigger Volker and pundits bitching about banks.

  7. mrp says:

    examining my motives while furiously mumbling "tldr" in the corner of Minetta's

  8. bored says:

    too long. didn't read.

  9. pazzo83 says:

    Just a bit verbose, Matt.

    – L Tolstoy

  10. Guest says:

    Anyone else stop after page 1 ?

  11. Cut Me says:

    You're the one who broke my heart, you're the reason my world fell apart, you're the one who made me cry, yet I'm still in love with you and I don't know why. I cried today… not because I miss you… or even wanted you… but because I realized I'm gonna be all right without you.

    -Excel Chart Wizard Button

  12. Jim says:

    3 pages Matt? Really? You honestly thought people would read three pages devoid of Bess' wit?

  13. Anonymous says:

    what is this?

  14. BofH says:

    "$375n" should be "$375bn". Your argument is invalid.

  15. Gold Metal says:

    Finishing this was literally the greatest single achievement of my life

  16. Mario Mysticeti, CFA says:

    Matt Levine : average finance blogger; Blue whale : sea otter

    -AIG Marine Biology Quant

  17. PermaGuestII says:

    Isn't the basic problem the fact that JPM is just too damned big to manage, let alone understand?

    After all, it seems like the trade would have worked OK had it not been so large that it started moving the entire market.

    -guy who notes that the reason the Titanic hit the iceberg in the first place was because she was too unwieldy to steer

  18. The_Analyst says:

    Let's see, you cited source document several times, sufficiently explained (but without grossly oversimplifying) what (likely/effectively) happened and the concepts involved, and wrapped it all together with some references to others who made decent arguments. By far best all around effort I've seen to explain "The JPM Situation."

    Hope you didn't put in an 18-hr day yest (and back in the office by 7 today) to put this thing together (or take it apart, I suppose).

  19. Guest says:

    Putting all the footnotes on the 3rd page was a nice touch!

  20. Insider says:

    At the risk of being serious, which I HATE to do on DB, this was epic, and the WSJ, FT, etc. should just scrap all their reporting and link to this, since they don't have a tenth of the clue you do.

    p.s. nice attributions, Peter Tchir in particular has been all over this for weeks

  21. Matt's Mom says:

    Sweetie, this is the best Mother's Day gift you've ever gotten me

  22. Helpful says:

    Despite all of the hostility, I actually found this quite insightful.

    -Guy who is actually being sincere

  23. guesticles says:

    Matt, sometimes you absolutely fucking deliver

    – Guy who really wanted to hate you because he resists change, but who was won over by intelligent analysis and 10th grade diction

  24. Guest says:

    Do you have any idea how many times I hit refresh on Dealbreaker waiting for this article today?

  25. Guest says:

    I felt violated when I finally came to words NEXT PAGE

  26. Guest says:

    This was a whale of a post

  27. Puck It says:

    Does Dealbreaker pay for Matt's espresso or Red Bull (he's got to be on something to write this much, right?)?

    If DB stops, will he write short, pithy, witty posts?

    Can DB pay for my espresso or Red Bull so I can actually wade through all this?

  28. Guest says:

    NIce article; thanks for not trying to be overly witty

  29. guest says:

    The sequel to Inception is going to be based on this trade; a hedge within a hedge.

  30. obvious says:

    Ummm, 3 pages, lots of apologies. Here is an explanation of the whale in just a few lines:
    1) The bank wants earnings to justify bonuses.
    2) The bank knows that it has a put from The Bernank on the downside.
    3) The bank knows it has bonuses each year on the upside.
    4) Lending is a really slow way to accrue earnings.
    5) Leveraging up is a great way to get earnings, especially with a put from the Bernank.
    6) Woops, but maybe it is illegal to "prop trade".
    7) Better call it something else then. I like the sound of "hedge".
    8) Get a model which pretends to hedge something allowing us to lever it up (Matt explains the ruse above). Pretend our trade is an "investment".
    9) Uh oh, positions moving against us. Let's double down!
    10) repeat 9) above until profit or bust.
    11) Sharks smell blood in the water, everyone knows the whale is bleeding, call The Bernank!
    12) Dimon gives "whocuddaknowdit!!" speech.

  31. Guest says:

    Matt: nice self-call on the second link p. 3, para 2.

  32. juniormistmaker says:

    I did it!

  33. Sanjay Sinha says:

    As part of the commercial banking group at a regional bank, we pride ourselves in underwriting risk. We only lend to businesses that are in our geographic footprint and only if we understand the business model and have a good understanding of the management team. Once we make a loan, we own it and never sell it down; we don't buy an insurance policy against it; we are held accountable for it and; we see it thru maturity. You know, the old fashion way of underwriting and managing risk.

    It is time to go back to the basics.

  34. Avid Reader says:

    GodDAMNit people!

    Anyway, good stuff, Matt!

  35. im_new_here says:

    Great article, but Matt: Does Bess give you a delicious cookie every time you write "pear-shaped"?

  36. loves long ml posts says:

    i just came

  37. Guest says:

    Matt should be put in front of Congress to explain finance.


  38. Bruno the hedgehog says:

    I was pretty much following you through the first two paragraph on deposits and loans, but I must admit you lost me with all the complex math in the rest of the article. Still don't see how this trade could lose money. My only takeaway is that you obviously want to rail this Lisa character from alphaville.

    – Bruno Iksil

  39. Meistro says:

    As we learned from AIG 2008, if there were massive bankruptcy's, then the hedges would fail due to counterparty risk and so the hedge isn't a hedge at all. . . JPM should just be a bank, and take losses if the economy goes down, just like everyone else.

  40. Dear Senator says:

    Finally someone made a sense on how well-intentioned pros could blow away 2 blns in few months.

    – Ranking Member of Senate Finance Committee.

  41. Guest says:

    Jesus wept.

  42. Peon_analyst says:

    I micro-slept a few times towards the end but was well worthit. Well done!

  43. visitor says:

    Matt, page 2

    "Think of it as: … moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit."

    Doesn't sound like a great investment.

  44. Tanto says:

    Nice one Herman.

  45. Matt>CFA says:

    Finished it!

    Did I just pass Level 2?

  46. silkop says:

    You mention that the solution "can't be to ban hedging". But of course, it can be just that! Why allow a BANK to essentially issue UNSECURED loans in the first place? Loans that have to be insured by seeking out "correlated" assets or hedges? FFS, if you are a BANK you should only lend to clients if they can provide sufficient securities that you can take away when they default. You are not supposed to be an angel institution that partakes in others' risk. Banks routinely (used to) act this way in the mortgage business – why not act the same in corporate lending? BANKS should not be in the business of providing risk capital – that is what stock IPOs are designed for. Hoping that your correlations turn out for the best is an egg-head fallacy. This is the core of the problem, the whole rest is just obfuscation geared toward idiots in suits who can't see the forest for the trees.

  47. cinco says:

    Good job Matt! Go get a couple of margs.

  48. Sam Houston says:


    Thank you. I am a middle school teacher in Texas. I sharing this with my students on Monday. You are the Bil Bryson of financial writing.

  49. You actually make it appear really easy together with your presentation but I find this topic to be actually
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  50. unwanted guest says:

    that should land you "Favorite Teacher" in the yearbook.

  51. .Bo says:

    Obviously Matt didn't leave GS for an improved work/life balance.

  52. Guest says:


    "you’re paying for something that moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit"

  53. lolwut says:

    I read the whole thing. Give me a cookie.

    Anyway, there is a much simpler explanation for this: the whales trades were poached. It is no coincidence that his trades are booking a massive loss only a month or two after he was the subject of so much media attention. In some sick way, Matt you can be blamed along with the rest of them.

    Let's look back to the LTCM hedge fund collapse. They relentlessly sold equity vol and made tons of derivative bets. Once they got in trouble, their positions became available to other entities (merits of how they obtained are irrelevant – point being in each case their massive positions came to light via some medium, as is the case here today).

    Next thing you know, everyone and their mother is pushing your trade against you, knowing you will eventually yield and cover, making them money. This is how free markets work. The sad thing is, had his activity never came to light, these trades probably would have worked out. Sadly the press will spin this as recklessness on JPMs part rather than a failure to keep confidential information confidential on the medias part and the resulting vulturing by hedge funds.

  54. HFguy says:

    I bet DB had to get the IT to program "Next Page" so that Matt could post his stuff.

  55. Ken says:

    Wouldn't CS01 be the appropriate risk metric

  56. t li says:


    "you’re paying for something that moves down a lot when credit improves a bit and down a lot when it worsens a bit."

    shouldn't be "… and up a lot when it worsens a bit" ?

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