Jamie Dimon just did a conference call in which he mentioned something called the “Dimon Principle,” but he did not define it, so I will propose a definition, which is: If you are going to have a Slytherin alumnus running a $375bn book full of snakes and CDX and TIPS (??) and things, and someone notices and the press starts lobbing in guesses about it, and Congress starts fretting about it, and you say things like “this is a tempest in a teapot,” you have to NOT LOSE TWO BILLION DOLLARS ON IT. From JPMorgan’s just-filed Q:

In Corporate, within the Corporate/Private Equity segment, net income (excluding Private Equity results and litigation expense) for the second quarter is currently estimated to be a loss of approximately $800 million. (Prior guidance for Corporate quarterly net income (excluding Private Equity results, litigation expense and nonrecurring significant items) was approximately $200 million.) Actual second quarter results could be substantially different from the current estimate and will depend on market levels and portfolio actions related to investments held by the Chief Investment Office (CIO), as well as other activities in Corporate during the remainder of the quarter.

Since March 31, 2012, CIO has had significant mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio, and this portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the Firm previously believed. The losses in CIO’s synthetic credit portfolio have been partially offset by realized gains from sales, predominantly of credit-related positions, in CIO’s AFS securities portfolio. As of March 31, 2012, the value of CIO’s total AFS securities portfolio exceeded its cost by approximately $8 billion. Since then, this portfolio (inclusive of the realized gains in the second quarter to date) has appreciated in value.

The Firm is currently repositioning CIO’s synthetic credit portfolio, which it is doing in conjunction with its assessment of the Firm’s overall credit exposure. As this repositioning is being effected in a manner designed to maximize economic value, CIO may hold certain of its current synthetic credit positions for the longer term.

This was an amazingly awkward call! Jamie refused to take questions on personnel, which means no one asked “did you fire the Whale,” but it seems clear from his tone of voice that the Whale is praying for termination/death. Here are some things that Jamie Dimon just said:

  • “I can never promise you that we won’t make mistakes. This one I would put in the egregious category.”
  • “This may not violate the Volcker Rule, but it violates the Dimon principle.”*
  • And, when asked if this is due to market conditions and other banks may have similar gaping holes taken out of them: “Just ’cause we’re stupid doesn’t mean everybody else was.”

Whaledemort remains something of a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in barnacles, and the Q&A reflected that. BAML’s Guy Moszkowski and others pressed Dimon on, as Moszkowski put it, “why did you feel the need to add synthetic credit exposure?”; others asked a not-unrelated question, which was, roughly, “c’mon Jamie, was this guy actually ‘hedging’ or was this just a crazy prop bet?” Dimon’s answers were not super satisfying but they were clear enough: the Whale was hedging, not adding, credit exposure. But he wasn’t just doing that by getting short lots of bonds or buying lots of CDS. Instead, he was doing something that had him getting long credit via CDX – presumably massive flatteners or tranche trades that were relatively neutral to small moves in credit but made lots of money if things got rapidly worse. These were not prop trades, not massively long credit – rather, the Whale was long credit via longer-dated CDX and short credit via shorter-dated CDX and/or tranches.

That is a simple enough trade, for some value of “enough,” but apparently not simple enough for JPMorgan! At some point they decided to reduce this credit hedge, or “re-hedge” it (Jamie’s exact words vary but whatever, you get the idea, they were short credit through some things and they decided to reduce that short position in some fashion by getting long more CDX or closing some of their shorts or whatever), and that re-hedging was “flawed, complex, poorly reviewed, poorly executed, and poorly managed” but otherwise fine. Except that, also, they fucked up the model. Here is CIO VaR from the earnings release:

Here is the CIO VaR from the Q:

So not $67mm of average daily VaR, as previously reported, but rather $129mm – rising to $186mm at the end of the quarter. This was attributed to modeling changes made over the last year, and someone asked on the call “why did you change the VaR model?,” but I’m not convinced that’s exactly the right question. This, I suspect, is not an issue of a thing called a “VaR model” that sits in a central location and spits out numbers for regulators and 10-Qs; rather, this looks like the CIO’s trading desk modelling the actual P&L and risks of the trade wildly wrong. That seems to me like the simplest way to lose a billion dollars without noticing it. You can see that in Jamie’s “just ’cause we’re stupid doesn’t mean everybody else was”: this was not driven by the market moving against them (though it seems to have), it was driven by them getting the math wrong.

Of course Dimon got a question about the Volcker Rule, and it’s hard to argue with his answer: this surprise loss doesn’t change the arguments, but “this is very unfortunate, it plays into the hands of a bunch of pundits out there, but that’s life.” The arguments, presumably, are over portfolio hedging – glopping all your credit risk together and then having one guy in London hedge it – versus, um, whatever the other thing is, I guess having each trader hedge all of her own risks. Allowing portfolio hedging seems like a no-brainer but the obvious counter-argument means that any time you concentrate things in one person, if that one person screws up, he has screwed up more things. Perhaps the response here is “but the model was screwed up, so even if we had 100 traders hedging 100 books using this model, they’d have ended up in the same place,” but that response is not fully encouraging.

Don’t worry, though. JPMorgan will get through this; they’ll “manage the position for economics” and their capital return plans are still on track. We know this because Dimon said it and added “our general counsel is sitting right here and would kick me if that wasn’t true.” No pressure though.

J.P. Morgan Reveals ‘London Whale’-Size Losses [Deal Journal]

* I had a delightful boss at GS the entirety of whose instruction on some trades was “don’t fuck it up.” This would also be good content for the “Dimon principle.”

182 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (182)

  1. Posted by Guest | May 10, 2012 at 6:23 PM

    Knew you wouldn't let us off that easy, Matt…

  2. Posted by Alt_EST | May 10, 2012 at 6:39 PM

    There is a wonderful irony in Matt using the fail splash screen for a platform devoted to communications less than 160 characters in length.

  3. Posted by Ben Got Your # Nanke | May 10, 2012 at 6:44 PM

    Jamie:

    So has any bothered to study the cumulative effect of all these regulations, sorry, I mean, hedges???

    And, Jamie, where's the hissing sound coming from? Is something leaking?

    Barack sends his regards.

    Yours,
    Ben

  4. Posted by guest | May 10, 2012 at 6:48 PM

    140. But yes, agreed.

  5. Posted by Mark Carney | May 10, 2012 at 6:49 PM

    simpsons-nelson-haha.gif

  6. Posted by CWBanker | May 10, 2012 at 7:00 PM

    Your post gives Canada a bad name.

  7. Posted by Woland5 | May 10, 2012 at 7:08 PM

    very well written, nice analysis, thanks. At least they didn't call this "rogue trader" and push him under the bus, instead they called him an idiot and pushed him under the bus.

  8. Posted by WallStChef | May 10, 2012 at 7:12 PM

    I wonder how well 'egg on your face' and whale sushi go together?

  9. Posted by doofus | May 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM

    Oops forgot to carry the 1.

  10. Posted by Zoroz | May 10, 2012 at 7:37 PM

    TLDR but I do have to say that I like the headline

  11. Posted by Guest | May 10, 2012 at 7:43 PM

    Dimon is now referring to himself in the third person a la Lebron. This doesn't bode well for JPMorgan's 4Q projections

  12. Posted by pazzo83 | May 10, 2012 at 7:46 PM

    Somebody called?

    – K. Adoboli

  13. Posted by YUT | May 10, 2012 at 7:50 PM

    His funny how obvious it is that Matt doesn’t understand anything about trading in the CDX market. His attempts to bullshit his way through it are just complete nonsense to anyone with the most basic experience in these markets.

  14. Posted by Guest | May 10, 2012 at 8:45 PM

    As a person who enjoys going to sea and killing whales, simply because they taste good, I have to complain about the misleading title of this otherwise good article.

    Icelandic Banker

  15. Posted by DMX | May 10, 2012 at 9:09 PM

    Here we go again….

  16. Posted by Brian Hunter | May 10, 2012 at 9:25 PM

    This sounds so familiar
    1. make huge trades that you can't unwind
    2. lower your balls into a vise, tighten
    3. have conference call

  17. Posted by Lol | May 10, 2012 at 9:35 PM

    Anyone know who this was?

  18. Posted by guest | May 10, 2012 at 9:42 PM

    This is just a guess but perhaps Bruno Iksil? You know, the JPM guy who is know as the London Whale and been written about for weeks now?
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-09/jpmorgan
    http://dealbreaker.com/tag/bruno-iksil/

  19. Posted by Guest | May 10, 2012 at 9:47 PM

    Duh…

  20. Posted by _guest | May 10, 2012 at 9:51 PM

    "As this repositioning is being effected in a manner designed to maximize economic value, CIO may hold certain of its current synthetic credit positions for the longer term."

    Translation: we're going to take advantage of some accounting rules and move these into Held to Maturity and to prevent this from happening again.

  21. Posted by christian gehman | May 10, 2012 at 9:53 PM

    Exactly — who is the whale? who, exactly was the whale working for? what other damage di the whale do? how many other, smaller whales will we see in the next quarter? Any Morgan Whales working in Hong kong? Who was watching the whale? Whose job was it to watch the whale anyway? Has that person, along with of course the whale himself or herself, been sacked yet? Or just consigned to obloquy? Good grief … these are the people we used to trust with our money? A complex position, properly hedged is a thing of beauty? … but, run by an idiot, it is a pile of ….? use your own word here? Mr. Dimon, on whose desk the buck will eventually stop, should resign tomorrow? Having lost the confidence of his own reflection in the mirror? Or was the whale actually acting on orders from Jamie Dimon himself? How else can one account for the total lack of oversight? Would it be wrong to inquire who, or how many, took short positions in the Morgan stock and made out like … bandits? Crooked bankers, whale on ice — ain't them rich folks really nice?

  22. Posted by guest | May 10, 2012 at 9:54 PM

    No, it's a mystery, we've been trying to figure this out for weeks now. Despite the huge amount of media describing him by his exact name, I don't think we'll ever know…

  23. Posted by Mont B. | May 10, 2012 at 10:08 PM

    Well kiddies, and yes, I mean all you late, great 28 and 29yr olds sitting in your cubicles as you read this article saying silent prayers to yourselves giving thanks that your business card does not read "JP Morgan Chief Investment Office", you are all together, one, great and good all fucked. Royally fucked. Like it or not, JP was the last flame burning brightly in this very cold, dark night of Lehmanacht (hehe). It was the lone bank that most on both Wall and Main St. could take solace in and say "at least those guys still have their shit together"- well, no more. Now everyone, EVERYONE, who has name badge and keycard with XYZ Bank or XYZ Securities plastered on it is by default a bumbling jackass not worthy of keeping a 10 count with even a 2nd grader's abacus! Yes, tonight, modern finance died. Not with a bang but with a Dimon whimper.

    Mont Blanc

  24. Posted by Beeper guy | May 10, 2012 at 10:17 PM

    Nobody protects you from mayhem like…

  25. Posted by guest | May 10, 2012 at 10:18 PM

    “28 and 29yr olds sitting in your cubicles”

    Tons of senior people read DB, including– wait for it– Jamie Dimon ( http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/fashion/01gossi… . But nice job assuming to know dick about who is on the site. (Also many of the readers work at hedge funds and could give a shit about bank regulation/the Volcker rule/and all the other reasons your balls are in a vice.)

    – middle aged hedge fund PM who thinks you probably have a face made for punching

  26. Posted by guest | May 10, 2012 at 10:31 PM

    ring ring

    secretary: Mr Dimon, call for you.

    Dimon: who is it?

    secretary: it's the whale

    Dimon: you cocksucker! I'm gonna cut your dick off and shove it down your… oh, hi Warren!

    Buffett: Hey Jamie. Heard you might have some securities for sale.

    Dimon: Well, maybe. We've got some good positions… great stuff, really. Might even be able to let you have it for under par. Why don't you send some of your people to take a look?

    Buffett: No, that's ok Jamie. If you say it's good stuff that's good enough for me. 20 bid.

    Dimon: What did you say?

    Buffett: you heard me. what's the cover? Oh, and by the way, I'll need some ten year warrens to buy your stock at 38.

    Dimon: Warrens? Do you mean warrants?

    Buffett: well, that's what Lloyd calls them.

    Dimon: Fuck you Warren.

    Buffett: that's what Brian said the first time that I called. Hey, gotta hop. Got Jimmy Gorman on hold; something about collateral.

  27. Posted by 2 can play this game | May 10, 2012 at 11:17 PM

    He may have a face made for punching, but you clearly have an asshole made for having a boot rammed up it.

  28. Posted by UBS Quant | May 10, 2012 at 11:21 PM

    A 2bn loss on a 375bn book is a 0.53% loss….who cares? It's like a rounding error at JPM

  29. Posted by The Dude | May 10, 2012 at 11:26 PM

    GEORGE IS GETTIN' UPSET!

  30. Posted by Crediteye, India | May 10, 2012 at 11:29 PM

    That’s what happens when u rely on VAR. VAR is crap. See
    http://crediteye.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/a-horse-called-var/

  31. Posted by Woland5 | May 10, 2012 at 11:59 PM

    Ahhh, who da fuck is sitting in a cubicles these days? We are sitting in a row like Bangkok prostitutes and Bangladeshian seamstresses.
    The whales who get to lose 2bills don't even get cubicles, that's why they ONLY lose 2 bills, risk management (those dick-less shmucks that are sitting right across from us) they notice it right on time!

  32. Posted by Woland5 | May 11, 2012 at 12:01 AM

    Very nice! Its funny, because its true.

  33. Posted by Per se | May 11, 2012 at 12:48 AM

    Anyone care to speak of why 13,800 jpm 41 puts traded today before this news broke?

  34. Posted by Amit | May 11, 2012 at 12:58 AM

    Listen people. This isn't about 2 billion dollar loss. It's about a major part of a huge bank that should have had people watching them like a hawk fail to stop a train wreck! These trades weren't hidden they were out in the open! Yet they failed to catch them! Apparently because of a flawed model. Hello people, where ere you in 2007 – 08! Any of this sound familiar? What other models being used for trades at all the other trading desks are flawed?

  35. Posted by Andrea | May 11, 2012 at 5:05 AM

    Could be simply a CVA/DVA hedge? Just asking….

  36. Posted by Edmund | May 11, 2012 at 5:42 AM

    yes but it's actually very difficult to really measure the risk on these sorts of positions. And I dont mean some bs that the BoE will approve I mean REALLY measure it. Of course you could argue that if you can't accurately quantify the risk on something you shouldn't be trading it … and you'd be correct.

  37. Posted by HFguy | May 11, 2012 at 5:59 AM

    We have gone from a nation where risk taking meant building the Hoover Dam and betting that it will power enough to make fat cash rolls to doing stupid fuckall nonsense of why the little blip in some curve will flatten when the market which makes that curve is just 10 exactly like you and then you wonder why is never works.

  38. Posted by zeitguest | May 11, 2012 at 6:51 AM

    or, "some of these things we can't unwind in the near term without taking a further massive loss vs. our marks, so, ahh, we'll be hanging onto them for a while"

  39. Posted by zeitguest | May 11, 2012 at 6:56 AM

    okay, joyce, i want you take all the rest of your question marks out, lay them on the ground, and take two steps back.

  40. Posted by ex-UBS CEO | May 11, 2012 at 7:15 AM

    We are not alone!

  41. Posted by zeitguest | May 11, 2012 at 7:17 AM

    in really simple terms, they blew the risk analysis because the size of their trading changed the dynamics of one of the relatively small markets they were playing in, and they were the last to figure that out. it's not like they accidentally left themselves with wrong-way exposure in some oceanic market like FX or rates because somebody bungled the math on their HP-12b; instead they tried to drive a containership of trades through a dutch canal of a market and got stuck.

  42. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    Exactly, thank you. And, it will get a lot worse than $2 bln….

  43. Posted by Wire | May 11, 2012 at 7:26 AM

    Simple rule of thumb: Don't get so big in a market that the best trade around is for everyone else to try to break you.

  44. Posted by Former French boss | May 11, 2012 at 7:30 AM

    I am here with you…

  45. Posted by King of NY | May 11, 2012 at 7:35 AM

    "You think ambushing me in some nightclub's gonna stop what makes people take drugs? This country spends $100 billion a year on getting high, and it's not because of me. All that time I was wasting in jail, it just got worse. I'm not your problem. I'm just a businessman. "

  46. Posted by Baguette Trader | May 11, 2012 at 7:38 AM

    The Full Monty struck a nerve….ouch

  47. Posted by Wall St "worker" | May 11, 2012 at 7:53 AM

    Come on baby, don't act like it's your first time. Jimmy Zirconia told me you've done crazier stuff than what I'm asking for.

  48. Posted by PermaGuestII | May 11, 2012 at 8:21 AM

    "but that's life"

    Things I would not be saying to my boss if I had a massive wrong-way trade.

  49. Posted by Cut Me | May 11, 2012 at 8:51 AM

    I just don't know how we got here. Our entire relationship, I have gone above and beyond for you, for us. I support you, I supported your work. If we ever had dinner or anything I did the plans, I take care of everything. And I just don't feel like you appreciate any of it. I don't feel you appreciate me. All I want is to know, is for you to show me that you care.

    -Excel Chart Wizard Button

  50. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 8:53 AM

    It's true.

    – Jamie Dimon

  51. Posted by zero sum | May 11, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    but who WON 2 bln?

  52. Posted by Stock Brokah | May 11, 2012 at 9:02 AM

    You're not welcome.

  53. Posted by Crushin' | May 11, 2012 at 9:05 AM

    Not shown: Bess Levin, editor of Dealbreaker

    :(

  54. Posted by florida | May 11, 2012 at 9:06 AM

    Unless you are Porsche snapping up those VW shares

  55. Posted by Guestttt | May 11, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    occupy CIO?

  56. Posted by fitting in | May 11, 2012 at 9:21 AM

    own too much JPM?

  57. Posted by UBSer | May 11, 2012 at 9:23 AM

    JP Morgan sucks!

    or

    Welcome to the club

  58. Posted by Har har | May 11, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    Will this signal the start ofna massive cull at the house of Dimon?

  59. Posted by Military actor | May 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

    Well, gentlemen! When the shit hits the fan, some guys run and some guys stay.

  60. Posted by Scrotum | May 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

    That's the whale's hedge on his hedges

  61. Posted by Ed LeFevere | May 11, 2012 at 9:55 AM

    Bad position sizing will kill you every time.

  62. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 10:04 AM

    That's the million two billion dollar question..

  63. Posted by Paybacks a Bitch | May 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

    Dimon said “Paul Volcker by his own admission has said he doesn’t understand capital markets. He has proven that to me.”

    Volcker said "How many servings of crow would you like?"

  64. Posted by Jon C | May 11, 2012 at 10:52 AM

    Hear you….

  65. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM

    Sorry, this was meant for Lol, I'm an idiot…

  66. Posted by Tom Hobbes | May 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM

    Does anyone know where Tyler D@zerohedge is getting the 200M/DV01 on IG9?

    +7.5bp today.. if the dv01 is correct.. more pain to come.

  67. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

    The usual U.K. suspects, their names begin with "Blue"…

  68. Posted by im_new_here | May 11, 2012 at 11:20 AM

    Blue Horseshoe loves trading with JP Morgan Chase?

  69. Posted by ruff ryder | May 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM

    X gonna give it to ya.

    -JD

  70. Posted by Guest | May 11, 2012 at 11:48 AM

    Matt

  71. Posted by Tom Hobbes | May 11, 2012 at 11:56 AM

    Numbers don't add up… FT and other sources saying that the losses are largely tied to the IG9 2017 maturity.. even if they'd done all the trades out there (about 180bio notional), the DV01 per million should be around 440 or around DV01 77MM net.. what am I missing?

  72. Posted by Voldemort | May 11, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    this pretty much sums it up:
    http://wheninfinance.tumblr.com/post/22801425097/

  73. Posted by HistoryBuff | May 11, 2012 at 12:16 PM

    I told you so.

    – Jay Gould

  74. Posted by Edmund | May 11, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    Hi Mr Adoboli, I didnt know they had internet in prison

  75. Posted by Mining quant | May 11, 2012 at 12:17 PM

    Something shiny and hard in your portfolio…

  76. Posted by Captain Obvious, CFA | May 11, 2012 at 12:23 PM

    And here I thought "whale sushi" would be some fat girl-on-girl site the SEC had just gotten into

  77. Posted by Japanese Shareholder | May 11, 2012 at 1:20 PM

    Fuck you, whale! And fuck you, dolphin!

  78. Posted by guest | May 11, 2012 at 1:22 PM

    The packaging in your supermarkets can't tell the difference between the two.

  79. Posted by Ron Ron | May 11, 2012 at 1:43 PM

    So this news gets "released" right on time, damn it's all Vegas, baby. What a crock of Shit ! (in my best pacino voice) Mises > Keynes

  80. Posted by 1% spelling police | May 11, 2012 at 3:19 PM

    Proper grammar is important to the 1%. Shape up or Ship out !

  81. Posted by awrrr | May 11, 2012 at 4:06 PM

    COW…AND CHICKEN?!?!

  82. Posted by accounting overrated | May 11, 2012 at 4:07 PM

    Chief Accounting Office: Sounds like a plan, let's just classify these CDS as held to maturity and amortize them, just like, you know regular bonds…

    Auditor: What?

    Chief Accounting Office: …trust me, the plan will work out just fine, we have all the best talent in our executive departments – we'll make it work.

  83. Posted by Per Kurowski | May 14, 2012 at 8:57 AM

    Whatever, when compared to what the expected real-term losses for society of the over 5 trillion dollars new US debt accumulated the last 3 years could be… what does a $2-3bn loss signify?

    Frankly, sometimes I feel the urge of picking up the phone and calling a Mr. Dimon or someone like him, to beg him to help me save my small savings… that is as long as he agrees to do that in the shadows, as far away as possible from our current loony banks regulators.

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