• 01 Jun 2012 at 4:03 PM

The CDS Market For Lemons

A stylized picture of a credit default swap is that it’s a way for a bank to offload to the market the credit risk of loans that it makes, while still funding those loans and making a profit on them. If you start from that stylized picture, you must at some point get comfortable with the stylized fact that this market is probably rife with insider trading. Turns out it is! Part of the reason for that is that it’s maybe legal,* part of it is just the general run of market-participant scumminess,** but there’s also the fact that the basic model sort of requires it. Here is the basic model:

  • private side bank employees evaluate a company for a loan, using lender materials that contain nonpublic information and banker relationships that are all about nonpublic information,***
  • private side bank employees negotiate and fund that loan with a company,
  • [magic happens], and
  • public side bank employees buy CDS on some but not all of the companies that the bank lends to in sizes that vary among companies.

So, I mean, I generally trust that most banks are over-compliant on this point and the magic happens behind a Chinese wall and so forth, but still, that sequence of events should make you a tiny bit suspicious if you’re anti insider trading in CDS.

Anyway, if you continue on with that stylized picture you’ll notice that, while the existence of traded CDS allows for a two-sided market of public-market speculators who buy CDS to bet against companies that they don’t lend to (or that they lend to only in public bond form), the origin of and net demand for single-name corporate credit protection comes largely from banks who do private-side lending and are probably hedging that lending. This is basically true.

That sucks for the CDS writer, doesn’t it? Abstractly, the writer has no inside information on the reference credit, but is insuring a bank, who abstractly has inside information, against a default on an instrument that the CDS writer may not have even seen.**** And, in fact, it turns out that companies who have traded CDS do tend to default more frequently than similar companies that don’t have traded CDS, which NY Fed researchers chalk up to the empty creditor hypothesis (“hedged creditors cheerfully plunge issuers into bankruptcy rather than working out a deal”), but which I think is richly suggestive of alternate mechanisms, of which “banks preferentially buy CDS on companies that they secretly know are dicey” is a fun one.*****

But this should in theory create a market for lemons: why would you sell CDS to a bank? They know more than you, they’re making an informed decision, and the only possible reason for them to buy CDS is that they think it’s a bargain relative to the risk they’re offloading. Right?

Wrong! Here is this discussion paper just posted by the German central bank, about the interaction of banks, Basel II/III capital adequacy regulation, and CDS markets. From the nontechnical introduction:

Darüber hinaus verdeutlicht die Analyse eine Interaktion des zuvor genannten Effektes mit den Anreizen der Bank, Kreditrisikohandel mittels CDS zubetreiben. Wenn die Regulierung CDS-Kontrakte als Instrument zur Kreditrisikominderung anerkennt …

Oh, wait, sorry, there’s an English version too. Here:

We also find an interaction between the … effect of regulation and the bank’s incentives to engage in credit risk transfer with CDS. When regulation accepts CDS as an instrument to mitigate credit risk, which is true for Basel II (and III), a risk neutral bank will engage in CDS trading even if the CDS price is unbiased, i.e. the CDS price equals the expected loss rate of loans. In particular, due to the substitution approach in Basel II (and III) the risk neutral bank finds it optimal to fully hedge its exposure to credit risk as long as the CDS price is unbiased. An upward or downward biased CDS price, however, implies an underhedge or an overhedge of the bank’s credit risk exposure.

There’s more, particularly about how the “substitution approach” in the Basel regs (in which the CDS writer’s credit is used in computing capital rather than the reference obligation’s credit) dampens the tendency to over/underhedge in mispriced CDS markets, you should read it, if you like tons of math to prove things some of which are sort of intuitive. But let’s focus on the basic intuitive thing which as I read it is:

(1) if you are a bank, and you have no capital regulation, you should lend as much as you want and buy CDS if and only if it’s underpriced relative to the risk it’s hedging, because you are risk-neutral and strong like bull; but

(2) if you are a bank and you have capital regulation, you should lend somewhat less because [math] and buy CDS if it’s either underpriced or roughly fairly priced relative to the risk it’s hedging, or even maybe if it’s a bit overpriced, because you get a capital benefit from buying CDS, and this allows you to lend more and put your deposits to work and clip your NIM and so forth, and you are not such a risk-neutral cowboy any more now that the regulator has its eye on you.

Thing (2) is fairly straightforward in the abstract and infinitely and gloriously game-able in the real. But thing (1) is a thing that only an economics paper could love, because if the CDS market developed as “this is a thing that (well-informed lending) banks buy only when (they know that) it’s underpriced” then who would sell it? No one that’s who. And, of course, the CDS market in fact developed as “this is a thing that banks buy to improve their regulatory capital.” And there were sellers, in part because let’s be honest you only need X sellers and there are always some people who don’t think things through, but also because the banks could credibly say “we love these credits, we really do, we’d never sell them, but you see, regulation …”

Maybe all of that is kind of obvious? I don’t know. Mostly I just like German central bankers pushing the benefits of the CDS market, which I feel like is … less popular among European central bankers? And I particularly like that their math more or less proves that the CDS market couldn’t exist in anything like its present form if Basel hadn’t made it marketable.

Thilo Pausch & Peter Welzel: Regulation, credit risk transfer with CDS, and bank lending [Deutsche Bundesbank]
Stavros Peristiani: Are CDS Derivatives Associated With Higher Corporate Defaults? [FRBNY]

* Not legal advice, consult your doctor, etc.

** Really, I loved that story, it’s like at Galleon it was a mark of shame not to be insider trading, everyone was all “oh yeah I totally gave insider information to George Soros man.” How widely true do you think that attitude is? Was? Is recent meh hedge fund performance partly due to the effect of the Galleon wiretaps and prosecutions? Discuss amongst etc.

*** How many bank loans are about an M&A or capital markets banker saying “hey, these guys told me they are going to [do a merger | issue securities | whatever], we need to be in their line to get a shot at that business?” Many of them, that’s how many. How many of those plans are material to the credit?

**** I’m calling this a story about underwriting because whatever but it could also be a story about contracts. A story I’ve heard involves banks lending to certain emerging market sovereigns with high rates and very forgiving terms, and then offloading the credit risk in CDS markets. If the sovereigns defaulted on the tighter terms in public bonds, the banks’ privately negotiated and undisclosed loans were deliverable, meaning that the banks were arbitraging CDS markets by charging the sovereigns for the riskiness of their terms but not being charged by the CDS market for the same riskiness. There are limits to this form of arbitrage, but they are nonzero.

***** Here is Felix Salmon talking about something related, specifically that if you want your banks to be, like, conduits of credit in the economy or whatever, you want them to keep their credit risk rather than offloading it to greater fools. I have no problem with that; my point is that you especially want this if you’re the fool!

24 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (24)

  1. Posted by Bugs | June 1, 2012 at 4:16 PM

    Whew. I was beginning to worry but I am reassured – three footnotes before the jump.

  2. Posted by zipo bibrok jr. | June 1, 2012 at 4:26 PM

    yeah so a good bit of "the big yellow one is the sun", but the sources and two points are close to worth all the wordiness (but its friday and i have another 15 to kill before escaping to stiff drink and a peer group so f-it)…namely regulation again propagating investment instruments that fail to add intrinsic value and rather continue to tilt the playing field in favor of the deviants…and the more suspicious bit is german central bank endorsement…meaning yes i suppose regulators are usually incompetent but this reeks of something stinkier…

  3. Posted by sandyyadav | June 1, 2012 at 4:29 PM

    Great work and great article , Indeed the CDS market is more of a lemon as the that sucks for the CDS writer, http://wp.me/c3rd

  4. Posted by Joey Bag-o-Donuts | June 1, 2012 at 4:34 PM

    So, then, insurance should regulated against because it pays off when something bad happens, and doesn't "add intrinsic value"? What about equity puts?

  5. Posted by whoa | June 1, 2012 at 4:47 PM

    joey

  6. Posted by Guest | June 1, 2012 at 5:16 PM

    It moved at "Continue Reading"…

  7. Posted by Guest | June 1, 2012 at 5:38 PM

    "…the CDS market couldn’t exist in anything like its present form if Basel hadn’t made it marketable."

    I think that this is just, not really true? Credit risk is an asset class. Selling protection is just synthetically purchasing bonds (caveating the basis and other complexities). There are various reasons why synthetic is, sometimes, the way to go. As to why one might want to buy protection, well, who buys equity puts? It takes all kinds.

    The fact that banks get capital relief from CDS purchase simply means that the prices are going to tend to be slightly higher than a pure expected-loss calculation would imply. This might bias the group of purchasers, as a whole, towards being a bit more bank-heavy as opposed to being just hedge funds and money managers. But the market would exist regardless.

  8. Posted by Guest | June 1, 2012 at 5:41 PM

    Liquid credit markets add all sorts of intrinsic value.

  9. Posted by MattIsScaredOfFelix | June 1, 2012 at 7:30 PM

    Yo, I forgot, when is the Salmon/Levine joint article about how marking to market is really a destabilizing force in the capital markets coming out?

    Still blown away you linked an article that actually implies bank's hedging their risks is a bad thing. Upside: Joe Cassano just forwarded it to his whole address book. (Ad impressions!)

  10. Posted by CFA | June 1, 2012 at 11:09 PM

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

  11. Posted by Bankruptcy | June 2, 2012 at 7:29 AM

    I am a bankruptcy practitioner and I will say that the empty creditor issue is huge. If the company wants to do an out of court, it is often impossible to find who the CDS counterparty is to even talk to, much less do a deal with them. Plus, since CDS separates voting rights on the credit from actual economic interest, it is often impossible to put a deal together in the first place b/c most bank loans req a 100% vote to reduce principal. It does trigger a number of bankrupties that make more sense as out-of-court deals.

  12. Posted by Guy Guy | June 2, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    See also: Pooled TruPS CDOs.

  13. Posted by Cheeseburger | June 2, 2012 at 6:24 PM

    Please make Matt stop writing! WTF kind of site do you think this is? We want it to be a gossip rag!

  14. Posted by Pierce and Pierce | June 3, 2012 at 7:11 PM

    Whenever I see "Chinese wall" I think "what a fucking crock of shit." Anyone care to disagree?

  15. Posted by Avid Reader | June 4, 2012 at 9:35 AM

    Well, CDS is a remarkably different product than a put on an equity, right? If I buy CDS I'm sorta hedged into some LIBOR-y return, whereas if I buy a stock and a put not so much. I think the basic case for CDS (away from bank regulatory/informational arbitrage) is that for big, well-known issuers with tons of different debt instruments outstanding, CDS is a logical way to create liquidity in the company's credit risk.

    Great article again, Matt!

  16. Posted by fittin in | June 4, 2012 at 10:06 AM

    yes.

  17. Posted by Hanky Panky | June 4, 2012 at 10:27 AM

    Yes – vehemently. If anything, most banks take it extremely seriously.

  18. Posted by mark | June 4, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    One reason you would sell CDS to a bank is because (1) you are a small or modest credit fund and you have a bullish view on a particular credit; (2) you see the CDS market as more liquid than the funded debt market; & (3) it costs you a lot less upfront to buy the a certain notional amount of CDS than to buy an equivalent principal amount of funded debt, which is really important if you are a small fund.

  19. Posted by mark | June 4, 2012 at 12:57 PM

    I should have added (4) you may prefer the greater anonymity of CDS vis a vis the debt issuer and possibly other persons, than holding a piece of a loan.

  20. Posted by zipo bibrok jr. | June 4, 2012 at 6:32 PM

    CDS 's weren't needed before lending took place and the way they make credit markets more liquid is simply letting people off the hook for betting on the wrong horse (or betting too much). If someone is imprudent to lend to, then instead of hedging with a CDS against them…don't lend them money (at a rate that doesn't compensate for the risk determined by your analysis)…particularly in a reality where the transactions are private, folks are incentivized to loan as a method of fact-finding where the CDS itself is the actual investment/speculation. Insurance itself is regulated and has an intrinsic value of protecting an individual against bad things happening to them out of their control. While CDS are taken out on others, can hardly be called regulated compared to insurance and lets folks off the hook for due diligence. Moreover it leaves open the insurance equivalent of taking out a life policy on the fat diabetic slob that sits next to me and pouring sugar onto his food/drink every time he hits the head…equity puts are different no? I'm not saying every hedge method should be outlawed but out of the multiple ways to hedge credit liabilities CDS's are the last that regulators should be trying to proliferate…

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