Tim Geithner had a nice chat with Congress about Libor in a theoretically unrelated hearing today, and since Congressional hearings are mostly about restating everyone’s pre-existing prejudices I figured I’d lay out my Libor hobbyhorses:

  • Nobody really has ever been all that troubled by the fact that banks manipulated Libor to make themselves look like they could borrow in 2007-2008, while everyone is at least acting all shocked shocked that banks manipulated Libor to juice derivatives profits, but that contrast is awkward because in a certain light those are the same activity, so everyone has to look all horrified by stuff they were obviously cool with four years ago.
  • Everybody knew that banks understated Libor in 2007-2008. Like, you could compare Libor to market borrowing rates and CDS and stuff, and people did, and noticed it was wrong. Also remember that Barclays, while they were manipulating Libor, were also emailing all their clients every day to remind them that Libor was being manipulated.
  • The effect/harm/liability of Libor manipulation has to be determined in expectation and if everyone knew it was being manipulated then they were presumably charging a higher spread to Libor when dealing with banks.

Geithner’s testimony won’t change my mind: now he has to look all grim about Libor manipulation, while back in the day he “treated it as a curiosity, or something akin to jaywalking, as opposed to highway robbery.”

But Tim Geithner wasn’t just a regulator when he ran the New York Fed; he was also a Libor user. So he gets to answer questions like this:

In a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Geithner was asked why Treasury and the Fed used the London Interbank Offered Rate as a basis for loans to insurance giant American International Group and to U.S. banks under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility — even though Geithner and other regulators had long suspected that Libor was artificially low, as Geithner testified.

“We were in the position of investors around the world,” Geithner shrugged. “You have to choose a rate, and we did what everybody did — use the best rate available at the time.”

Not everyone agrees. Mark Gongloff:

Another, less charitable way to look at it is that the Fed was fully aware that Libor was being manipulated lower, and was fine charging an artificially low rate to lend money to banks and to AIG, in what amounted to yet another kind of bailout. Why make life harder for them, right? They had enough problems dealing with the crisis they had created. Raising red flags about Libor might have only made the crisis worse, making it harder for banks to borrow money.

But in the process, the government left untold mountains of cash on the table for U.S. taxpayers. Even if Libor was only manipulated a tiny bit lower, these small breaks add up.

No! I mean, in some sense, sure, untold mountains of cash. Still, no! The government had a cost of funds of X, and it loaned those funds to banks at Y, and it made (Y – X) less whatever defaults occurred. Those things are true if Y was Libor (it wasn’t!), or if Y was Libor + some margin, or Libor swap rates + some margin, or fed funds + some margin, or the prime rate minus some margin, or 5% (it sometimes was!*). Y could have been bigger, of course, which may or may not have reduced participation or whatever, but, Libor manipulation is not a unique or interesting reason that it would have been bigger: if Geithner knew that Libor was too low, and he did, he could lend at a premium to Libor, and he did. TARP and TALF were sweetheart deals, and AIG maybe was/wasn’t, because they were intended to be sweetheart deals, not because of the mechanics of their rate setting.

A related argument is Neil Barofsky’s, which is that Geithner implicitly endorsed Libor by using it in bailout deals while knowing it was broken, so other chumps continued in being deceived because what was good enough for the NY Fed seemed good enough for them. That is I think debatable for bunches of reasons, of which my three favorites are (1) that if everyone else was using Libor before (they were!) the bailout endorsement doesn’t matter that much, (2) if everyone knew that Libor was manipulated (they did!**) then the bailout endorsement doesn’t matter that much, and (3) lending money to banks at 50 basis points over Libor is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the theory that banks can borrow at Libor.***

Anyway: expectations. The fun thing, I think, is that the least scandalous part of the Libor scandal came in the banks’ dealings with the New York Fed. Here is a silly simplified model for those dealings:

  • the banks told the NY Fed that they were manipulating Libor, and by how much, and
  • the banks borrowed from the New York Fed, at a premium to Libor set by the New York Fed.

If you are the NY Fed in that circumstance, how much premium do you charge? Conceptually, I think you charge Libor (the fake cost of bank borrowing), plus the amount by which you think Libor is understated (to get to the real cost of bank borrowing), plus some sort of option premium for the fact that the banks get to decide how much to understate Libor in the future. That option premium is not, y’know, Black-Scholes-derivable, but that’s a detail. Banks pretty regularly enter into trades where their counterparties get paid a premium in exchange for giving the bank inscrutable nefarious optionality on a price fixing.

Everyone else lending to Libor-panel banks, or entering into swaps with those banks, could presumably enact the same self-help. (Remember: they were also getting daily emails telling them that Libor was understated and by how much.****) Liborgate is in some strange sense least problematic when it involved the banks’ own dealings: sure they were cheating their customers, but the customers knew it, and in expectation could charge for the right to be cheated. The borrowers and lenders and swappers who used Libor and were not dealing with Libor-panel banks were the sadder cases: they were getting cheated, but didn’t have anyone to bill for it.

Facing Congress, Geithner Grilled on Rate-Rigging [DealBook]
Tim Geithner Bailed Out Banks With Rigged Libor, Costing Taxpayers Huge Amount [HuffPo]


** Here and elsewhere my use of “everyone” is unforgivably loose, markets are efficient etc.

*** LIKE: if you are a bank would you rather borrow (1) by taking out unsecured loans at your alleged cost of 1-month borrowing, or (2) by selling assets into a thing financeable with a haircut at your alleged cost of 1-month borrowing plus 50bps? Choice (2) is nonrecourse, so unfair question, but still, if you could borrow unsecured at Libor you’d at least think hard about borrowing unsecured at Libor rather than effectively borrowing secured at a fifty basis point spread over Libor, no? And if you instead chose to borrow secured at Libor + 50 doesn’t that suggest that your ability to borrow unsecured at Libor flat was mostly theoretical? No?

**** By this point “everyone” has diverged widely from reality: municipalities, for instance, were not getting those emails.

81 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (81)

  1. Posted by FKApmco | July 25, 2012 at 6:17 PM

    1,100 words, 4 footnotes, a bit of sass. If we get a chart in the next post, he's truly ruly back and firing on all fours. Quick question: is eleventy kazillion bigger than a quinquajillion?

  2. Posted by Bugs | July 25, 2012 at 6:24 PM

    Did you ever get an answer to your pronunciation question?

  3. Posted by caption contest | July 25, 2012 at 6:35 PM

    my balls are 'bout yay big

  4. Posted by FKApmco | July 25, 2012 at 7:25 PM

    Nah Bugsy. Matty told me he doesn't read our comments.

  5. Posted by Curious | July 25, 2012 at 9:53 PM

    "firing on all fours"? Are you a fuel economy proponent or imagining Matt in an intimate encounter?

  6. Posted by General Nonsense | July 25, 2012 at 9:56 PM

    If it made no difference because "everybody knew" then why do it in the first place? The argument lacks a certain, shall we say, logic.

  7. Posted by Guest | July 25, 2012 at 11:16 PM

    Yeah, when I saw that AIG deal to borrow at L + 850, plus warrants for 79.9% of the common, my thought was what a sweet deal. Gongloff is a fool, HuffPo is the perfect spot for him.

  8. Posted by Strong Sell | July 26, 2012 at 12:02 AM

    So, like, banks set rates and stuff at like libor + whatever or idk + whatever because they want to lend stuff to receive profits and stuff

    -Matt Levine school of writing

  9. Posted by Steve | July 26, 2012 at 2:01 AM

    The assumption that small investors have knowledge of the true Libor; enough capitol & leverage to contract such an offset is naive. Why manipulate Libor and announce it? Because many small borrowers don't get the privalge, the bank soaks the small guys, and announcing it covers legal liabilities. Hey, everyone knew, there was no harm if this reporter like many great pundits ignore the continued attacks and deterioration of the middle class and the increasing desperation of the poor due to indifference in decision making focused on revenues. All done by the use of averages, distractions, generalizations, and inuendos "everyone knew" to minimize the effects of what is happening.

    I know many poor and struggling families thru relations. Not enough money to buy a dependable car yet having it break down, or a sickness, etc. means a loss of needed income and unplanned expense resulting in a dominoe effect. Missed utilities, creditors calling, possible unemployeement, foreclosures. I concur some are bums but I know many good people in severe stress. How do you think they feel about promoting inflation as a rescue attempt, food prices & utilities going up, gas is high and wild, phone companies ripping everyone off (I'm sure you have a story too), no raises a few years strait, let's now add the effect of congress; to risky to qualify for a much lower refinance because you missed payments , let's now add the poor have to buy med ins. or pay a penalty wether they can afford it or not, impending drought and soaring food costs, increased taxes to support massive bailouts, europe, more for Afganistan. The polititions can debate about ways to help the poor. My cry is to show some consideration in you averaged benchmarks and decisions and STOP HURTING THEM!

    If the political; financial; and businesses dont fix all this legalized soaking of the masses I predict through necessity a second much better organized non-partisen Occupy Wall Street with a new declaration & mission. In fact; I always say govt. invites more corruption everytime it changes something; so following that premise I predict they won't fix it and there will be another larger OWS type protest out of necessity.

    Let's face it; no-one is adequately protecting the innocent & naive from the onslot of price increases and new charges. Neither Democrat or Republican. Everything and everyone is being perfected in the revenue mantra to societies peril. The continued indifference will byte us in the arse.

    The real question: will the next OWS protest be organized and successful, falter and rebuild again, or decay into an arab spring type of mob scene across the US? Ignore the later at all our peril.

    Good luck to all!

  10. Posted by FKApmco | July 26, 2012 at 6:23 AM

    Funny you ask. I did recognize both the old-fashioned nature of the expression and the possibility of double entendre when I posted it. 10 points to you.

  11. Posted by Guest | July 26, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    Photo Caption: Then Madoff answered the door, butt naked and erect. Let me tell you, I've never felt so vindicated in my life.

  12. Posted by Guest | July 26, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    1) Guest above is correct, you have clearly come to the wrong place

    2) I am going to go ahead and guess your struggling acquaintances have credit card debt as well. If so, that would make them beneficiaries of the libor manipulation, not victims.

    3) Please learn how to spell & use correct diction if you want to be taken seriously by snobs like us

  13. Posted by SellingLow | July 26, 2012 at 9:46 AM

    You forgot about forgiving my student loans for the 6 years I spent studying the role of the toilet in the French Revolution!


  14. Posted by Guest | July 26, 2012 at 11:32 AM

    At the time the Fed was taking all sorts of action to cut interest rates and make credit available in the economy, the normal monetary policy response to an economic downturn. (Some of the Fed's specific actions weren't normal, but the basic goal of cutting interest rates and encouraging credit creation is standard monetary policy to deal with a recession.) Meanwhile, there's hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of dollars of floating rate loans outstanding – corporate term loans, corporate revolvers, adjustable rate mortgages, etc. – whose interest rates are set as a spread over LIBOR and periodically reset. So a spike in LIBOR has exactly the opposite effect of what the Fed is trying to do in response to a recession – a spike in LIBOR means higher interest rates / tighter monetary policy. So, if you're the Fed, an increase in LIBOR is the opposite of what you are trying to accomplish. Plus, setting short-term interest rates – which is just another way of saying manipulating short-term interest rates – is one of the Fed's primary jobs, so you can see how the idea of manipulating LIBOR to keep it artificially low wouldn't necessarily set off alarm bells at the Fed.

    I believe this argument has a certain, shall we say, logic.

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