Who wins the call-the-Whale-close? The headline number is a $4.4 billion loss this quarter but that is lower than it could have been because those losses propagated backwards through time:

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) today reported that it will restate its previously-filed interim financial statements for the first quarter of 2012. The restatement will have no effect on total earnings or revenues for the company year-to-date.*

The restatement announced today will reduce the firm’s previously-reported net income for the 2012 first quarter by $459 million. The restatement relates to valuations of certain positions in the synthetic credit portfolio in the firm’s Chief Investment Office (CIO).

The total loss in the first quarter is now $1,378mm for Q1 (footnote 3 of page 14 here); add $4,409mm for Q2 (page 3 here) and you get a total final official loss of $5,787mm. So far.**

The restatement is fascinating, and Dimon is proud of it: “This is what the SEC chairwoman herself would have done if she had seen all the same facts at the same time.” Okay! But she probably wouldn’t have done this:

The restatement results from information that has recently come to the Firm’s attention in connection with management’s internal review of activities related to CIO’s synthetic credit portfolio. Under Firm policy, the positions in the portfolio are to be marked at fair value, based on the traders’ reasonable judgment as to the prices at which transactions could occur. As an independent check on those marks, the CIO’s valuation control group (“VCG”), a finance function within CIO, verifies that the traders’ marks are within pre-established price testing thresholds around external “mid-market” benchmarks and, if not, adjusts trader marks outside the relevant threshold. The thresholds consider market bid/offer spreads and are intended to establish a range of reasonable fair value estimates for each relevant position. At March 31, 2012, the trader marks, subject to the VCG verification process, formed the basis for preparing the Firm’s reported first quarter results.

However, the recently discovered information raises questions about the integrity of the trader marks, and suggests that certain individuals may have been seeking to avoid showing the full amount of the losses being incurred in the portfolio during the first quarter. As a result, the Firm is no longer confident that the trader marks used to prepare the Firm’s reported first quarter results (although within the established thresholds) reflect good faith estimates of fair value at quarter end.

Specifically “Emails, voice tapes and other documents, supplemented by interviews, suggestive of trader intent not to mark positions where they believed they could execute.” Where have we heard that before?

The hits really keep on coming for Jamie Dimon. The Whale losses, even at $5.8bn, aren’t that big: JPMorgan still reported net income of $5bn this quarter (and $4.9bn in restated last quarter), and the $5.8bn is 0.25% of assets and 3.9% of tier 1 capital. And losing money isn’t a crime, or even all that uncommon, so he could take a certain amount of high ground talking to Congress. You can read more about what Whale & friends did here, in Mike Cavanagh’s shame-the-CIO presentation; it’s kind of what everyone thought and not great but also not outrageously outrageous. And sure there had been rumors that the CIO was mis-marking its portfolio, which is … maybe criminal-ish … but sounded sort of like garden-variety trader optimism and not that big a deal.

But to then have to announce that the CIO was doing exactly that – and that they were doing it with the intent of hiding losses and making themselves look better – and to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars – and that there were emails about it – probably hurts more than the money. And it is just terrible to have to announce that right smack in the middle of Liborgate, when there is a lot of press and regulator and Congressional attention to banks making themselves look better by reporting numbers that, although arguably within a reasonable range, were not executable. That maybe was garden-variety mild misbehavior, both at JPM CIO and in Libor – but that does not look like a great defense any more.

In any case, this seems to be the end of the line for the Whale and his famous trade – not so much because JPMorgan is out of the trade, but because it’s moved it somewhere less visible:

“Since the end of the first quarter, we have significantly reduced the total synthetic credit risk in CIO – whether measured by notional amounts, stress testing or other statistical methods. The reduction in risk has brought the portfolio to a scale that allowed us to transfer substantially all remaining synthetic credit positions to the Investment Bank. The Investment Bank has the expertise, capacity, trading platforms and market franchise to effectively manage these positions and maximize economic value going forward. As a result of the transfer, the Investment Bank’s Value-at-Risk and Risk Weighted Assets will increase, but we believe they will come down over time.”

The transfer is around $30bn of risk-weighted assets, around $40mm of VaR, around $7mm of CS01, and “Extreme simulated scenarios indicate potential losses between $800mm-$1.6B.” What’s left seems to be hedged tranches of credit indices. And, I’d guess, being very conservatively marked.

JPMorgan earnings stuff [JPM]
Earnings 8-K [EDGAR]
Restatement 8-K [EDGAR]

* Isn’t that sort of a jarring thing to say btw? Like, “we discovered we lost an extra $459mm last quarter, but it’s okay, we would have lost it this quarter anyway.”

** Updated with exact numbers etc.

77 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (77)

  1. Posted by fitting in | July 13, 2012 at 8:46 AM

    well done matt. good morning.

  2. Posted by Cheating Bastards | July 13, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    Traders are all the same.

  3. Posted by prof_snape | July 13, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    yes. 10 points for slytherin.

  4. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    Wait so it 5.8 what we are using as the winning number?

  5. Posted by Dumbledor Capital | July 13, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    Expeliamus!

  6. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    I wonder how you feel coming to work in the morning know that, "i lost my boss 5.8 billion" i don't think i would be worried, that's a fucking accomplishment.

    Also wondering what his co-workers think of him…

  7. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 9:14 AM

    [youtube Tym0MObFpTI&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tym0MObFpTI&feature=related youtube]

  8. Posted by Honest Trader | July 13, 2012 at 9:18 AM

    No they aren't! We had 4 traders show up at a recent "Integrity Meets Finance" party at Mooley's.

  9. Posted by Kweku | July 13, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    Well you know what they say; if you lose your boss $5.8 million, you have a problem. If you lose your boss $5.8 billion, you….. still have a problem, but also a book deal!

  10. Posted by Gas Trading Pro | July 13, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    If they held on to the position for another 5 or 6 years it would have ben profitable. Management made the trader take a loss!!

  11. Posted by Incitatus | July 13, 2012 at 9:32 AM

    That's a 33% score out of 100. In three words. Three.

  12. Posted by Nicked Leeson | July 13, 2012 at 9:38 AM

    Well said.

  13. Posted by .Bo | July 13, 2012 at 9:42 AM

    Matt math > Doug Braunstein

    $6B

  14. Posted by guest | July 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    I will solve this mismarking problem in one step, make the penalties for mismarking trading books as punitive as someone walking into a bank and robbing it, except make the penalties punishable across every layer of management that missed the traders mismarked losses. I'm sure Bruno, Jamie and the rest of the crew would have been a lot more in tune with risk management if several years of ass pounding in the joint were the punishment rather than handing back inflated bonuses.

    -Hammurabi

  15. Posted by guest | July 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    Clearly a Hufflepuff kind of man.

  16. Posted by N' 08 | July 13, 2012 at 9:47 AM

    Kweep Twalking.

    -B. Frank

  17. Posted by Nervous Chart Fan | July 13, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    Matt, that CIO task force deck sure could have used more charts, don't you think?

  18. Posted by Gen Tso Chick | July 13, 2012 at 9:53 AM

    If we claim responsibility for the loss does that count as deal flow on the league table for us?

    UBS Desperate Measures MD

  19. Posted by General Tso | July 13, 2012 at 9:59 AM

    Well, hello there.

  20. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 10:01 AM

    Nick Saban's daughter ate my Fudgie the Whale!

  21. Posted by General Tso Chick 2 | July 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

    Herro to you too.

  22. Posted by Financial Samurai | July 13, 2012 at 10:09 AM

    Losing $4.4 billion looks like nothing with JPM profits being down so LITTLE!

    Good times are back boys!

  23. Posted by Peter | July 13, 2012 at 10:12 AM

    "And losing money isn’t a crime"

    The invite to Congress wasn't about 'losing money.' It was about your penniless cousin sleeping on the couch, eating your Cocopuffs then spending all day playing the horses.

  24. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 10:13 AM

    She probably doesn't feel TOO bad considering she's worth millions.

  25. Posted by Kouwe's Cousin | July 13, 2012 at 10:17 AM

    We haven't talked about Kouwe for quite a while here, what makes you bring him up?

  26. Posted by HHFM | July 13, 2012 at 10:35 AM

    I won! Got my info from Shia.

  27. Posted by UBS MD | July 13, 2012 at 11:05 AM

    "And losing money isn’t a crime, or even all that uncommon"

    Hell yeah!

  28. Posted by Texashedge | July 13, 2012 at 11:24 AM

    You came close with 5.75, but someone named "Texas PE" (no relation) guessed 5.8 exactly.

  29. Posted by FKApmco | July 13, 2012 at 11:34 AM

    Gross loss was 5787; net revs was 3667. I bid 5385 and 3385 which makes me the closest on both.
    Bath Toy pls.

  30. Posted by Smelling Good Today! | July 13, 2012 at 11:37 AM

    Where's my billion dollar bonus? JPM apologists say the loss nothing and insignificant. If they don't value the billions in loss why not just give it to people who do value the money?

  31. Posted by Done Deal! | July 13, 2012 at 11:40 AM

    If losing money was a crime you'd need a lot more jails in Houston, Dallas, Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

  32. Posted by Richy | July 13, 2012 at 11:48 AM

    Dimon: There will come a time when your Summer Analyst must be told something. But you must wait until Whale is at his most vulnerable.

    Severus Snape: Must be told what?

    Dimon: On the night the London Whale went to Godric's Hollow to make a trade, and the SA cast his application online between them, the curse rebounded. When that happened, a part of the Whales soul latched itself onto the only living thing it could find. The intern himself. There was a reason he could speak with clients. There was a reason he could look into London Whales mind. A part of the London Whale lives inside him.

    Severus Snape: So when the time comes, the boy must die?

    Dimon: Yes. Yes. He must die

  33. Posted by Brudda | July 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM

    And what kind of Bath Toy would that be…..

    L. Tilton

  34. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 12:13 PM

    Of the "salts' variety.

    -UBS Cannibalism Quant

  35. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 12:27 PM

    I wasnt referring to her but Bruno… also i dont care if she was worth billions i still wouldnt hit it. I have morals.

  36. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    Go fuck yourself… the kid below you.

  37. Posted by Guestay | July 13, 2012 at 12:42 PM

    "The Whale losses, even at $5.8bn, aren’t that big"

    Ah to be 30 and have worked at Goldman…

  38. Posted by Guest | July 13, 2012 at 1:06 PM

    JP Morgan trading loss > UBS trading loss !

    – UBS employee who is really happy that after all a lot of other bulge bracket banks fuck up too

  39. Posted by RBS MD | July 13, 2012 at 1:41 PM

    Race you to the bottom! Last one there buys the gold back!

  40. Posted by Texas PE | July 13, 2012 at 2:06 PM

    Yes, I'm hoping that's the call, and that I don't lose out over 5.787. And I am actually located in Texas, so I'm guessing that would take the sandwich fairy option off the table.

  41. Posted by BessLevin | July 13, 2012 at 2:12 PM

    The sandwich fairy comes wherever delivery is available!

  42. Posted by AIG Pun Quant | July 13, 2012 at 2:17 PM

    Anyone running equities in Dallas, private or otherwise, should be disqualified from the competition.

  43. Posted by guestoron | July 13, 2012 at 3:21 PM

    Fuck that I have eyes!

  44. Posted by guest@guest.com | July 13, 2012 at 4:18 PM

    You really couldn't spell out "please"?

  45. Posted by Qunt | July 13, 2012 at 4:37 PM

    Woooo!

  46. Posted by Moneyman | July 15, 2012 at 5:19 PM

    Dont worry no one can lose more money than RBS did! What was it 50 billion?

  47. Posted by VonSloneker | July 16, 2012 at 9:21 AM

    Texas? Jimmy John's FTW

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