• 01 Aug 2012 at 2:04 PM

Knight Unhorsed

Yesterday I and others pointed out that, while UBS was not alone in getting screwed by Nasdaq failures on Facebook, it was alone in losing 10x as much as other, more competent market makers like Knight Capital, and ha ha ha. This apparently had a jinxing effect:

Knight Capital Group Inc., one of the largest trading firms, told brokerages to send their orders elsewhere and was probing a software problem, according to people involved in the matter. U.S. exchanges said they were examining potentially erroneous trading in more than 100 securities that saw big price swings or unusually high volume. Knight saw a fifth of its own market value wiped out. …

The system error and reports of irregular trading stoked suspicions that trades had been accidentally duplicated via computer algorithms, rather than the problem being contained to one server, as has happened in the past, traders said.

Knight is down ~21%, vs. ~4% yesterday for UBS and its costly Facebook fail, a useful reminder that focusing on perfecting your market-making business may make you less likely to fuck it up, but when you do fuck it up it goes far worse for you. That’s maybe some sort of a metaphor for high-frequency electronic market-making generally, which it will not surprise you to learn is coming in for some flak today.* Algorithmic high frequency trading makes it more likely that your small trade will be executed quickly and cheaply, but it also makes it more likely that larger orders will go horribly awry as prices move away from them.

Which is why this coincidence (?) pointed out by the Journal is kind of tantalizing:

The episode struck on the same day that NYSE Euronext introduced a new program designed to produce more competitive prices for retail investors. The so-called retail liquidity program enables market-makers to offer improvements on stock prices in fractions of a cent—a new function for stock exchanges. A spokesman for NYSE Euronext said Wednesday that the system was functioning properly.

More documentation on that here; basically it allows market-makers to submit pre-programmed undisplayed offers to improve price for retail liquidity takers in $0.001 increments. This would seem to improve pricing for retail investors – the name “Retail Price Improvement Orders” is a dead giveaway – but, trading costs being zero-sum, that’s gotta come from somewhere.** Traditional theory is that, the more that market makers can distinguish uninformed retail traders from big and/or informed institutions, the more they can price discriminate, offering well-priced liquidity to retail and jacking up costs for big/informed orders. The extra $0.001 per share that retail investors save comes out of an extra $0.05 (or whatever!) per share that mutual funds lose, with Knight and its friends pocketing the spare $0.049. Zero sum.

Obviously if a new system comes into effect and you are an algorithmic trading firm, you would want to build new algorithms to take advantage of it; those algorithms would presumably make you more aggressive in some places – to try to get that retail flow – and less aggressive in others – to back away from less desirable trades. So you might expect more aggressive orders in some circumstances and widening bid-asks in others. And, of course, when you implement new algorithms that haven’t been tested in the market before, sometimes they go wrong in embarrassing ways – so your more aggressive orders, and others’ backing away, might land you in a bunch of erroneous trades. Like Knight’s.

But that’s all baseless speculation. Here’s another theory for what happened (also here):

Traders said they believed a large order for a number of stocks was executed in five minutes rather than a longer period of up to five days. The far shorter transaction period pushed prices sharply higher or lower as the scale of the orders overwhelmed the natural liquidity of the market, which is limited for smaller capitalised stocks.

Which, if true, has nothing to do with any new systems and structures: it’s fat-finger-y rather than fat-algo-y. And it jives with the fact that the problems are only with 148 names rather than all of the NYSE. So I guess I’ll buy it. Computers are extremely efficient at propagating screw-ups widely and quickly, but they do their best work with human assistance.

Volatility Rocks U.S. Stock Market, Halts Some Trading [WSJ]
NYSE reviews trading after algo glitch [FT]

* Like: “‘Today is a day that proves that you just can’t rely on machines,’ said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading,” or “‘This is another example of a market structure that has failed. Another example how they have ruined the market structure to appease the machines,’ said Saluzzi, author of Broken Markets,” or the straightforward “Kill the quants before they kill us!”

** We talked about a not-unrelated proposal before, to improve the social functioning of HFT by reducing the minimum price increment. At the time I thought it sounded like a purely good thing, and all the knowledgeable commenters were like “you are an idiot,” so, duly noted. It is not a purely good thing.

Comments (42)

  1. Posted by Guest | August 1, 2012 at 2:11 PM

    The Fat Fingered Clown strikes again!

  2. Posted by Guest | August 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

    Get rid of the EggHeads and bring back the Meatballs.

    NYSE Euronext Risk Quant

  3. Posted by T. M. Joyce | August 1, 2012 at 2:27 PM

    The Chinese started this. They did it first.

  4. Posted by Deleveraging | August 1, 2012 at 2:35 PM

    This warrents a drink on the way home!

  5. Posted by Zombred | August 1, 2012 at 2:38 PM

    No eggheads or meatballs, just brainss!

  6. Posted by Guy with A.D.D. | August 1, 2012 at 2:39 PM

    Down, Down, Down!
    The red knights going Down!

    -Cable guy

  7. Posted by GueSt | August 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

    I will drink to that!

  8. Posted by guest | August 1, 2012 at 2:45 PM

    You need to get pissed, slid your wrists and jump off a bridge.

    UBS Rap Quant

  9. Posted by M. Taibbi | August 1, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Did someone say Horse?

  10. Posted by O.W.S. | August 1, 2012 at 2:51 PM

    Huh?

  11. Posted by guest | August 1, 2012 at 3:11 PM

    Are you looking for my wife?

    - M. Broderick

  12. Posted by Black Knight | August 1, 2012 at 3:16 PM

    It's just a flesh wound!

  13. Posted by Knight Capital | August 1, 2012 at 3:26 PM

    I use to be a successful broker but then I took a arrow to the algorithm.

  14. Posted by Jim Cramer | August 1, 2012 at 3:27 PM

    Look Skee Daddy,

    I think these big tough HFT guys need to get wacked and leveraged ETFs need to go in the *slice* GARBAGE DUMP!!!! But that will probably never happen, so at this point all i can say is… BOOOOYAAAHHHH SKEEEEDADDDYYYYYYY!!! BUY BUY BUY

    With gentle and loving regards,
    Jimbo(:

  15. Posted by Guest | August 1, 2012 at 3:29 PM

    I knew we should have upgraded to a Pentium processor from our 286 CPU last year………..Senior Knight IT guy

  16. Posted by vp_md | August 1, 2012 at 3:30 PM

    Scrolling furiously through Bloomberg news history, looking for the headline "Knight hires UBS equity trading team"

  17. Posted by Knight Capital IT | August 1, 2012 at 3:31 PM

    Yeah and those commodore 64s are getting a little rusty too.

    –IT

  18. Posted by Guest | August 1, 2012 at 3:32 PM

    SHIT! I just spilled coffe all over my key board call out the Geek Squad ASAP!

  19. Posted by Guest | August 1, 2012 at 3:44 PM

    Fuck that I've already opened my emergency scotch bottle. No one questioned it.

  20. Posted by Cleaned It Up | August 1, 2012 at 3:49 PM

    In days of old
    When Knight was bold
    And algos weren't invented.
    They bought and sold
    In the ways of old
    And everyone was contented.

  21. Posted by Guest123 | August 1, 2012 at 3:58 PM

    Knight Knight

  22. Posted by Zombred | August 1, 2012 at 4:10 PM

    I am going to slid your head open and eat your rap brains.

  23. Posted by EQ in Dallas | August 1, 2012 at 5:11 PM
  24. Posted by Gdawg | August 1, 2012 at 5:37 PM

    stop plagiarizing korean coaches

  25. Posted by MrLieTou | August 1, 2012 at 11:09 PM

    Any quants looking to join a top HFT firm?

  26. Posted by Guest | August 2, 2012 at 8:26 AM

    The Dark Knight…….Descends?

  27. Posted by Eddie | August 2, 2012 at 9:11 AM

    HA HA HA HA HA FUCK YOU PETER KENNEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

  28. Posted by PeterEater | August 2, 2012 at 9:12 AM

    No Fuck YOU Billy Cox

  29. Posted by contango | August 2, 2012 at 11:21 AM

    That's what happens when your HQ is in Jersey. Welcome to the perpetual Amateur Hour.

    - Analyst who loves going to the Four Seasons at lunch time.

  30. Posted by meagain | August 2, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    Can someone do a quick LinkedIn search and tell me who the head of trading technology at Knight is, I want to add them to my list of connections……………..

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