I guess I regret asking yesterday “how much did the government make on AIG?” because you can quibble with that question both on arithmetic grounds – should you count other programs as part of AIG’s bailout, rather than just the bailout-y programs I counted? – and on philosophical grounds. The philosophical objection is something like “the government + central banks sort of run a financial system as a squishy whole, and if you cut out one part of it and measure it you are doing something pretty silly because the rest of it is slowly oozing out around you and suffocating your accounting methods.” Something like that.1

But here is perhaps a fairer question: “how much did AIG pay for the capital that the Fed and Treasury invested in it?” This is a better question because AIG is not as polymorphously oozing as a Financial System; unlike Treasury + Fed it has to report GAAP financials. Also because asking about the cost of various transactions makes it feel better to treat those transactions in isolation from other transactions, and to compare them to transactions that other people did.

Best of all, though, it’s the same question: AIG’s “cost of capital” for the government programs is just the internal rate of return on the cash flows on those programs.2 By my math yesterday – which ties out broadly enough with the government’s math that I’m going to declare it “correct” – the answer is about 5.7% per annum, with the Fed programs costing 7.9% and the Treasury’s programs costing 2.8%.3

So how does that stack up? I dunno, but here are some thoughts. First, the obvious comparison: big-bank TARP was a lot more expensive for the banks. This much more expensive:4

So AIG’s cost-of-bailout was much lower than any of the banks’ cost, despite the fact that its bailout was the biggest and it was arguably the closest to death’s door. (Maybe except Citi.) This is a little bit of an unfair comparison because it counts only the most expensive bit of the big-bank rescues and measures it against all of the AIG rescue; arguably Goldman’s bailout-y government funding included some cheaper programs (of the secured-lending, TALF and discount-window varieties) that are somewhat comparable to the secured loans that I’m rolling into the AIG bailout. (Also arguably Goldman’s bailout-y government funding included the AIG bailout.)

But still, if you look at the most comparable bit of the AIG bailout, the comparison is even starker: if you look only at Treasury programs, which consisted of preferred-plus-warrant investments that devolved into common equity investments (and some preferred interests in SPVs holding equity in some specific businesses), then those are comparable to TARP – and they cost AIG under 3% per year. The Fed, which provided only secured loans, drove a harder bargain and got a 7.9% return, which is not bad for secured lending (unless it’s, y’know, lending in September 2008 secured by AIG structured credit assets, but anyway). That in itself is weird – you’d normally charge more for the riskier investment, not less. (Nominally Treasury charged a lot, but one of the core features of the AIG bailout was charging high stated interest/dividend rates, paying the interest/dividends in kind rather than in cash, and then ultimately wiping out the whole instrument before the cash interest was ever paid.)

You could I suppose look at other comparisons. One that I sort of like is that the average cost of four-year debt for a BBB- rated US industrial company, as of September 22, 2008, according to Bloomberg’s FMCI function, happened to be 5.7067% – a basis point or two away from the actual cost for AIG’s actual four-year bailout signed that day. Was AIG as good as a BBB- company? Better? Worse? (Could a BBB- company actually have funded at that rate that day?)

Meh. I don’t have any dramatic conclusions to draw from this. I put it up mostly to propose a corrective to the boring, zero-discount-rate “the government made $X billion on this bailout so That’s Good” narrative. One basic intuition is that in general huge risky investments should cost more (to the investee) than smaller safer investments, so it’s odd that AIG’s ex post cost of capital was so low – lower, for instance, than the stated 12% rate on that first Fed loan. But of course it’s an ex post cost of capital: riskier investments cost more because they’re more likely to default, as AIG did, repeatedly. (Sorry, “restructure.”) Even after repeated restructurings migrated the government down AIG’s capital structure, it still got back a bit more than par, so you can’t complain too much about its so-so returns. But there’s no reason to ignore them, either.

1. Or what? Like, are low interest rates a cost of bailouts? (Are they even good for banks? For AIG?) If so, whom do they cost? “The government”? “The Fed”? “Taxpayers”? “Savers”? Or, unrelated, do you allocate a portion of Volcker Rule-making costs to AIG? Etc. Seems uknowable-ish.

2. Or, like, the negative of it, whatever.

3. That’s assuming what I assumed yesterday, and also assuming that the Treasury dumps its remaining $8-ish billion of AIG stock today at today’s price. Since it’s not doing that, the IRR will vary a bit depending on when it sells that stock and how much it gets for it.

4. Math here, all data stolen directly from ProPublica’s great “find a bailout” database. A quibble here is that I assume warrants are cut off when the government is repaid, even if the government is repaid by warrant auction; this is relevant for the government’s IRR but arguably not for the bank’s cost of capital, since the warrants remain outstanding and so if the stock keeps going up so does their cost. But of course they could’ve bought in the auction so it’s not that big a deal. Numbers, if you’re interested:

120 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (120)

  1. Posted by From the sidelines | September 12, 2012 at 1:06 PM

    :/

  2. Posted by John | September 12, 2012 at 1:08 PM

    You know what would be even better than the hyper-linked footnotes, Matt? The kind where if you fly over the footnote, it is visible in a popup box. You could do all kinds of stuff with that.

    Guy who could become a big fan of Matt's footnotes if he didn't have to go to the bottom of the scrolled page to see them.

  3. Posted by Sexy Rexy | September 12, 2012 at 1:10 PM

    Matt, I could look at your footnotes forever.

  4. Posted by güest | September 12, 2012 at 1:11 PM

    Good, but bad, but good

    - Matt

  5. Posted by From the footnotes | September 12, 2012 at 1:21 PM

    :D

  6. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 1:30 PM

    I could look at Jessica Simpson's cleavage all day.

  7. Posted by Seriously | September 12, 2012 at 1:46 PM

    Can we add the Auto Bailouts to future analysis, I assume the government must have got a pretty good deal since everyone seems to like those bailouts as opposed to bank bailouts…

  8. Posted by Matt Levine | September 12, 2012 at 2:16 PM

    Tell me how to do this and I will.

  9. Posted by puffer | September 12, 2012 at 2:19 PM

    holy shit a black swan

  10. Posted by 2 cubes over | September 12, 2012 at 2:27 PM

    got to throw in a whatevs & like…

  11. Posted by juniormistmaker | September 12, 2012 at 2:29 PM

    God Matt. Why aren't your companies arranged in any sort of order? Alphabetical? Market Cap? Descending? Ascending?

    How am I supposed to "speak to" the charts if the bars aren't in order? This is just jibberish to me.

    – Banking MD

  12. Posted by Footless Notes | September 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM

    :(

    -Rex Ryan

  13. Posted by FKApmco | September 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM

    Hi Matty:
    Google "pop up notes" and Word or whatever software you use to post. Might be easy but could be hard.
    FKApmco (yes, really; I can't be bothered to login in to ID)

  14. Posted by RocketMan | September 12, 2012 at 2:34 PM

    Math here link not working for me. My problem or yours?
    -Rocket scientist who really wants to review the math

  15. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

    Things that go without saying can go without saying

  16. Posted by Dateraider | September 12, 2012 at 2:55 PM

    Re: footnote 1. Low interest rates are a fairly definite bad for insurance companies, what with all the annuities selling nada.

  17. Posted by P | September 12, 2012 at 3:01 PM

    Reading 650 words in a pop-up box seems a little difficult.

  18. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 3:02 PM

    Here's something. Uses HTML and CSS and I assume #3 on the page would be most applicable.
    http://www.wickham43.net/hoverpopups.php

    Goes in the head:

    #tooltip1 { position: relative; }
    #tooltip1 a span { display: none; color: #FFFFFF; }
    #tooltip1 a:hover span { display: block; position: absolute; width: 250px; background-color: #aaa; height: 50px; left: 100px; top: -10px; color: #FFFFFF; padding: 5px; }

    This part goes in the body:

    <p id="tooltip1">Introduction<span>Introduction to HTML and CSS: tooltip with extra text</span>

  19. Posted by John | September 12, 2012 at 3:05 PM

    I'll check into it. Also, I'll try to figure out if you can do nested footnotes. Think about it, your footnotes could be footnoted. The practical applications are mind boggling.

  20. Posted by Gym | September 12, 2012 at 3:07 PM

    Why are GS and BAC so far away from their respective bars? They can clearly fit in the space above.

    - Guy who has a hard time believing Matt created this chart

  21. Posted by Alpha_Bets | September 12, 2012 at 3:12 PM

    Nah, that's turtles all the way down.

  22. Posted by el guesto | September 12, 2012 at 3:30 PM

    the dangers of an infinite loop are too great for such power

  23. Posted by Matt's Intern | September 12, 2012 at 3:42 PM

    Great, so now I can add figuring this out on my list of things to do that were totally not part of the description of this internship*. FYI, making a list everyone who disclosed an insider transaction in a company that received bailout funds, or was affiliated with a company that filed a 13F disclosing a material** holding of such a company's stock is a real shitty way to spend Monday Night when you'd rather be downing pickle backs at Brother Jimmy's like all the guys said they did while they were interns. But whatever, gotta pay your dues, everyone starts somewhere, whatevs, but now I have to call all these people to. I have to call them and ask "you have a mind, and a heart, correct?" "so in your mind and your hear of hearts, what did the bailout cost you, as a shareholder and as a person, did it make you feel sad, alone, angry?" And I have to make sure to get all of that expressed in basis points and put it into Excel and have it ready for the Mira Cohn conference*** gonna be another long night of knockoff adderall and warm Tecate.

    * Description: Help bloggers blog, maybe get to meet bess, proudly wear I <3 DB pin, possibly have to chase a pig
    **Material holdings as defined by the boss: Greater than 3% of the shares outstanding or shares with a total dollar value greater than the number of people Matt Levine thinks are justly imprisoned for insider trading
    ***: Does this conference even exist? I'm kind of worried it doesn't, I'm also starting to get kind of worried this entire internship was made up and I'm not even getting credit for it…

  24. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 4:15 PM

    As far as I can tell your entire enterprise is more than a solitary man with a messy apartment which may or may not contain a chicken.

  25. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 4:23 PM

    HTML code:


    Linky

  26. Posted by juniormistmaker | September 12, 2012 at 4:32 PM

    He was too lazy to figure out a way to fit "AIG – TARP" and "AIG – Overall" (Where's the capital "O" Matty?) so he devised this disgusting scheme of alternating label levels.

  27. Posted by guest | September 12, 2012 at 5:03 PM

    Set Iterations to: 1

  28. Posted by Short, But Long | September 12, 2012 at 5:06 PM

    Matt's Articles > CFA > MBA

  29. Posted by Anonymous | September 12, 2012 at 6:18 PM

    I wonder how many analysts are stuck on XIRR error while reviewing Matt's work.

  30. Posted by John | September 12, 2012 at 6:43 PM

    You probably have to ask your support people to change the style sheet for this page (ask them to update the css), then show you how to mark up your text to make use of the feature. If you use wordpress you can just download the change, if not it will depend on your platform. That said, you will be world famous once this gets implemented. While you are at it, ask the support guys how to add them to your charts (popups explaining a feature of a chart make it much more fun and interactive).
    Soon you will be known as the Steve Jobs of the Blogosphere, elegant design simplicity encapsulating the devilish complexity of whatever pours forth from your mind.

    Of course Anonymous might just hack into this site and set it up for you (it would be a more socially productive use of your time, guys, than blowing up GoDaddy) ….

  31. Posted by güest | September 12, 2012 at 7:37 PM

    we already have pictags, bro

  32. Posted by Guest | September 12, 2012 at 6:59 PM

    "Meh. I don’t have any dramatic conclusions to draw from this. I put it up mostly to propose a corrective to the boring, zero-discount-rate “the government made $X billion on this bailout so That’s Good” narrative. "

    The man on the street is obsessed with the return of principal. I suppose that is boring.

    I would argue that a more nuanced analysis would also factor in the Government's cost of capital. As well as the systemic benefits to bailing out your financial system.

    The Treasury gets a cut on every dollar of corporate profits. And profits require a functioning financial system. And AIG was and is, by universal agreement, systemically important.

    There is a reason that the overly simplistic 0% interest assumption makes sense. If you are going to add nuance, then it isn't easy to decide how to calculate total return — especially the knock on effects of saving the financial system. .

    The Treasury was careful not to use the word 'profit'. The press not so much. Treasury call it interest/fees/gains. And also stressed that it was a positive number.

    I agree that any discussion of profit needs to consider the cost of capital. But the Government isn't a business. So, I agree that the Treasury's emphasis on return OF capital is meaningful, even if return ON capital is inherently problematic.

    Most banking system failures in mature economies end up costing from 1% to 3%+ of GDP(per the BIS). The US S&L crisis was roughly of that magnitude.

    The financial bailouts should roughly break even. The auto bailouts will cost something, but that was essentially a jobs program. The GSE's? That may be expensive, but it prevented a total lack of liquidity in the housing resale market.

    Compared to the hysteria in 2008 and early 2009, the direct costs of this bailout is going to cost 10's of billions rather than trillions or a couple orders of magnitude less than Roubini and his ilk were projecting,

  33. Posted by TurtlesAlltheWayDown | September 12, 2012 at 8:02 PM

    David Foster Wallace is spinning in his grave.

  34. Posted by Boob Hound | September 12, 2012 at 8:03 PM

    take a screenshot. Next!

  35. Posted by LM Falcone | September 12, 2012 at 8:04 PM

    Call me. Maybe.

  36. Posted by PAULRYAN | September 13, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    Return on (or) return of capital kinda irrelevant when saving the financial system… so not losing all of it seems ok, and getting a few pennies more than what you put in is a win for sure. Analysis stops there. who cares on cost of capital when you aren't an investor, but instead the guy who makes the dollars or the guy who issues the notes that backs the dollars.

    what i DO care about is that the people stop including TARP bailout funds in the pre-obama deficit calcs.

  37. Posted by freeupcapital | September 13, 2012 at 10:10 PM

    Craziness. I worked with a guy who came over from AIG and he had the nerve to tell me that it was only a few folks that made things really bad for AIG

    That may be true, however, he knew about the corruption..

    I work for a Fortune 500. This jerk was hired as a Government Sales Rep for my company and he pissed me off. I asked him if he saw a woman being raped would he stand around and watch like everybody else? Because that's what happened at AIG… a few people raped (extorted) other folks from major banks and said nada.

    I do agree that AIG was the only institution that needed a bailout but the way it was accomplished was crony crapitalism. It was an investment by the politicians and then payed back after a profit.

    I did tell my coworker he was fuckin scum.

    Is anybody hiring out ther (because HR didn't like what I told the arsewhipe)?

    I don't mind banks and the AIG' s that insure them. 98% of the people working for the banks are good folks… just don't be a banker and lie to me.

    We all get the cronyism… JP is next!

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