• 17 Sep 2012 at 10:49 AM

Let’s Help Treasury Get Out Of GM

I’m pretty sure that there’s one or two or thirty investment bankers currently handholding at the U.S. Treasury and General Motors in their debate over when and at what price Treasury should get rid of its remaining GM shares. I’m also pretty sure that those bankers are fed up with their principals’ childishness. Thus, I guess, this Wall Street Journal article. On the one hand, you’ve got Treasury and its unfamiliarity with the concept of sunk costs:1

Earlier this summer, GM floated a plan with Treasury officials to repurchase 200 million of the roughly 500 million shares the U.S. holds in the auto maker, according to people familiar with the discussions. Under the plan, Treasury would sell the remaining shares through a public stock offering.

But Treasury officials aren’t interested in GM’s offer at the current price and aren’t in a rush to offload shares, according to people familiar with the matter. The biggest reason: A sale now would leave the government with a hefty loss on its investment.

At GM’s Friday share price of $24.14, the U.S. would lose about $15 billion on the GM bailout if it sold its entire stake. While GM stock would need to reach $53 a share for the U.S. to break even, Treasury officials would consider selling at a price in the $30s, people familiar with the government’s thinking have said.

On the other hand, you’ve got, um, this:

GM executives have grown increasingly frustrated with [the government’s 32%] ownership, and the stigma of being known as “Government Motors.” Executives have said the U.S.’s shadow is a drag on its reputation and hurts the company’s ability to recruit talent because of pay restrictions. Privately, executives are also irked at the continued curbs on corporate jet use.

What would you propose if you were one of those bankers and you wanted – as you do – to earn a fee by creating a transaction? There’s a range of imaginable value-gap-bridging strategies. I might – pretty arbitrarily! – start from the premises that (1) management thinks it could unlock more shareholder value2 without the stigma and restrictions of government ownership and (2) management has some idea of what it’s doing. From there I might propose some sort of contingent value right that allows the government to sell its stake today but share in some upside: let GM buy shares back today in the $20s, work to improve profitability on a firm foundation of a name immune from sarcasm and extensive private-jet travel, and if it works, give the government say 75% of any value over $30 that GM manages to build in the next few years.3

Perhaps that’s overengineered though: if all you need to do to improve value is lift pay restrictions, maybe you just ask Treasury to lift the pay restrictions? And convince them that you’re right? You’re left with “Government Motors” but maybe you make that a selling point? “Buy GM cars, or your taxes will go up,” something along those lines, I’m not an ad guy. Alternatively, it is just conceivable that executives could be found who could run a profitable automaker with only limited use of corporate jets, though that seems to be an untested theory.

But I suspect any of these proposals would founder on the fact that Treasury is not an economic actor. Mainly what it wants is the political benefit of being able to say that it “made money,” or at least didn’t “lose too much money,” on GM’s bailout, which is not at all the same thing as wanting to maximize its economics now. For instance my AIG math from last week looks very different from the official math of most of these bailouts, which usually turns on just zero-discount-rate accounting profit: if you put in $100 in 2008, and after a series of terrifying gyrations and restructurings over four years, you get back $100.25, then YOU WIN and you don’t worry too much about discount rates or IRRs or the heart attacks and legal bills along the way. And unfortunately, accounting profit (loss) on the auto programs is really terrible.

But couldn’t that be fixed, or at least mitigated? One basic lesson of financial engineering is that if you have a client who doesn’t care about something that the market does care about, then you should buy as much of that something from him as you can. If that something is as fundamental as “time value of money” then your opportunities are limitless.

My stupid sketch goes something like this: let’s say, roughly accurately, that GM’s cost of five-year debt is about T+350.4 That means that a dollar from GM in five years is worth about 80 cents today. Meaning that if GM “bought” Treasury’s shares for $33 (the IPO price, apparently acceptable to Treasury, though still a loss) “today,” but “settled” the transaction in five years, it would only be delivering about $27 worth of present value. (That’s still ~10-15% premium above today’s price but hey you’re getting your jets back.) Call it a “postpaid forward”5 and GM can book the shares today.6 The government can’t exactly say that it’s gotten its money back – among other things, it hasn’t gotten the money yet, and when it does it’ll still be at a loss – but presumably you could write some blather about obtaining certainty about getting some of it back, I dunno, again, not an ad guy.

This seems unlikely to happen, no? For one thing, it’s too obvious; you might need to throw in some obfuscations so that it’s not as simple as “Treasury gets out of GM by giving GM an interest-free loan to buy back its shares.” But you can always find some obfuscations; AIG’s bailout was restructured something like four times, starting out as a 12% loan and ending up as a success with a 5.7% annual return. Why shouldn’t Treasury take advantage of the same sort of math to pay itself off here?

U.S. Balks at GM Plan [WSJ]

1. That is a totally unfair way of characterizing Treasury; they’ve got uneconomic constraints of their own. Take the TARP bank preferreds, which Treasury had no burning desire to hold, and so sold them at market prices, perfectly sensible. This prompted some rather amazing wailing in the vein of “you shouldn’t sell at a low price, you should just wait until the price goes up and sell then.” Because the price always goes up!

2. Because … management is worried about shareholder value, right? It needs to pay higher salaries to managers, and give them more private jet trips, to sell more cars and increase the value of the company and enrich shareholders and other stakeholders, no? It’s not just because managers, like, like higher salaries and more jets, is it?

3. This is complicated if most of the share sale is to the public – does GM give a contingent value right only on the shares it buys?

4. I see GM Finance’s 6.75% of 2018 at 111.55, a 4.43% yield, which Bloomberg shows as 373bps over the 2017 Treasury though some of that is curve. And 5y CDS closed Friday at ~301 after being ~325-340 previously last week. So T+350, whatever.

5. But not like this one, which was postpaid in name (and taxes) only.

6. I guess mechanically GM (1) buys 500mm shares forward and (2) sells 300mm shares spot for its own account to the public, so that Treasury gets its fake $33 on all the shares and GM only has to stump up fake cash for 200mm of them. (Then GM uses those public offering proceeds to retire some actual, money-costing debt, essentially replacing it with free government debt.) I assume that public offering doesn’t come at a premium – though, I mean, shouldn’t it, with the jets, etc.? – which leaves a $2-3 gap still to fill in here. Maybe you do that with just stupid engineering – make it a ten-year forward!

162 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (162)

  1. Posted by B2b MD | September 17, 2012 at 10:59 AM

    This will get done the week after the election.

    -UBS Political Insider Quant

  2. Posted by GT500 Baby | September 17, 2012 at 10:59 AM

    Camero Sucks! IROC – Italian retard out cruising

    – Muscle Mustangs and Fast Fords!

  3. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    I CAN'T UNDERSTAND THIS WITHOUT A CHART

  4. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    I'd say it's pretty sly of you to mention engineering so many times when the subject is an auto maker.

  5. Posted by Chartoholic | September 17, 2012 at 11:29 AM

    A Matt post before noon, yay! But no charts, meh.

  6. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 11:30 AM

    Just tell the Treasury that GM has herpes, and they will pull out faster than the speed of light.

  7. Posted by 2 cubes over | September 17, 2012 at 11:34 AM

    Unbelievable that they still haven't figured out how to build decent cars.

  8. Posted by The Slacker | September 17, 2012 at 11:37 AM

    No Thanks, I don't want to buy crap that is made of compressed rust….like ALL GM made garbage

  9. Posted by Shia | September 17, 2012 at 11:49 AM

    Motha fuggin' TRANSFORMERS dogg.

  10. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 11:54 AM

    Sometimes, when I am all alone, away from home, I think about Kouwe.

  11. Posted by Edmund | September 17, 2012 at 12:00 PM

    Okay, GM shares have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the GM shares are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f… my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

  12. Posted by Lowly Assistant | September 17, 2012 at 12:02 PM

    Since when did UBS start actually providing valuable analysis? This "UBS [Insert Group] Quant" thing has done a complete 180º. I'm long Stamford.

  13. Posted by juniormistmaker | September 17, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    Oh really? So you're saying having a major shareholder who can tell you to fck off is a nuisance? Uhh you guys didn't see this coming?

  14. Posted by Guessums | September 17, 2012 at 12:12 PM

    What the fuck does that mean?

    – GM bondholders

  15. Posted by Government M.D. | September 17, 2012 at 12:39 PM

    We spread this against AIG

    Don't sweat it.

  16. Posted by Kweku Abdobli | September 17, 2012 at 12:41 PM

    Those P&L stats on bloomberg today about my pers accounts are total BS

    I was hedged.

  17. Posted by Derek Jeter | September 17, 2012 at 12:44 PM

    Hey!

    Derek Jeter

  18. Posted by Dealbreaker Jet Guy | September 17, 2012 at 12:46 PM

    So Matt blogging versus investment banking, which one has the more lavish travel policy?

  19. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 12:58 PM

    Here, lick this Volt.

  20. Posted by NotGuest | September 17, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    Guest got one of your parting gift baskets full of swag.

  21. Posted by a.d.d. guest | September 17, 2012 at 1:03 PM

    how can i read aboyut GM when those pink bonobos pants are screaming my name?

  22. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 1:03 PM

    Might be kind of a risky loan–I'd recommend insuring your investment with some quality CDS protection. I believe you have our number.

    -AIG

  23. Posted by GM-Laid-Me-Off | September 17, 2012 at 1:05 PM

    This mean I'm getting my job back?

  24. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 1:18 PM

    Detroit/Eastern Michigan included.

    -U.S. Treasury

  25. Posted by USC | September 17, 2012 at 1:21 PM

    sons o bitches…

  26. Posted by PBG2 no more | September 17, 2012 at 1:24 PM

    little known fact for all

    the Pork Belly contract has been delisted permanently by the CME

    open int went to 10 or so

  27. Posted by Ally | September 17, 2012 at 1:24 PM

    too innefectual

  28. Posted by Mitt | September 17, 2012 at 1:25 PM

    love the trees here

  29. Posted by WhiteHouseAccounting | September 17, 2012 at 1:38 PM

    Yes. And we'll count it as both a "job created" and as a "job saved."

  30. Posted by Tercel Sequoia | September 17, 2012 at 1:39 PM

    GM has had 42 years to design and build a better car than a Toyota Corolla and they can't get it done. So ends the lesson.

  31. Posted by NerdQuant | September 17, 2012 at 1:56 PM

    I assume you meant to write 'totally believable.' After all, Detroit schoolkids get up to 12 years of Union instruction to supply the automakers with workers.

  32. Posted by Lowly Assistant | September 17, 2012 at 1:59 PM

    Nervous about Bess actually celebrating the New Year. This will be a long 2 days.

    -Not Nervous Jew, But A Fan Of His Work

  33. Posted by Deleveraging | September 17, 2012 at 1:59 PM

    I had a 1993 GMC Typhoon, and had it not been for a head-on collision, I would still have it today. It was like a jet on wheels. They had to dumb it down and the Yukon never compared.

  34. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 2:02 PM

    Matt, you're prob some ex Goldman try-hard that wouldn't buy an American car for fear of what your blood sucking euro trash colleagues or the gold digging skanks you chase would think. Every one of you bashing GM hasn't driven a recent example (and no, the fleet Chevy Malibu you rented from Hertz doesn't count). They're producing quality cars, but it's tough to compete against interferences like the repubs giving the farm to foreign competitors in the south, foreign governments that completely exploit the US, etc.

    -Proud owner of 2012 Denali and CTS-V coupe

  35. Posted by steel reserve 40oz. | September 17, 2012 at 2:13 PM

    the new Cadillacs are really nice for the money, and are PG'd to last longer than a lexus, jag or bmw…

  36. Posted by steel reserve 40oz. | September 17, 2012 at 2:15 PM

    the typhoon was a monster. too many hippies these days to release a new one, but the Cadillac V's are nice..

  37. Posted by Deleveraging | September 17, 2012 at 2:26 PM

    "……..the repubs giving the farm to foreign competitors in the south, foreign governments that completely exploit the US, etc. ".

    Actually in her last private sector job, Hilary Clinton at the Rose Law firm worked with several states revising their right to work laws to bring the foreign manufacturers to the South.

  38. Posted by PermaGuestII | September 17, 2012 at 2:31 PM

    Not much point in any NY resident buying a car to "impress" anyone since 95% of the time the only person who is going to see it is your garage attendant.

    And GM started going downhill in about 1970 if not before. You honestly think that had nothing to do with a design abortion like the 1985 Chevy Caprice/Oldsmobile 88/Pontiac Parisienne ("Ha! The customers are so dumb all we have to do is put a different badge on it and they think it's a different car!") and everything to do with trade laws? They're competing with a history of 40-odd years of arrogance toward the customer and substandard design work– that's their problem.

    -4th generation Ford owner

  39. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 2:34 PM

    No Comment.

    – Unlimited Monthly Subway Pass Holder.

  40. Posted by Overpaid | September 17, 2012 at 2:40 PM

    Fiat is the way to go.

    -J. Leno

  41. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 2:40 PM

    So Levin = Jew?
    but
    Levine /= Jew?

    – confused goy

  42. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 2:51 PM

    I wonder how old Nervous is doing.

  43. Posted by I Love Woodies | September 17, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    Hey! What's wrong with the Chevy Caprice?

    I loved that car…
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7

  44. Posted by STi | September 17, 2012 at 3:27 PM

    What are hippies?

  45. Posted by guest | September 17, 2012 at 3:57 PM

    I didn't say they didn't alienate buyers producing shit in the 80s and 90s and the first half of the 2000s. But it's 2012, things have changed dramatically. You guys sound like anti-American, partisan douchebags echoing right wing talking points. Support your fucking country for Christ's sake.

  46. Posted by Rabbi Bill | September 17, 2012 at 3:57 PM

    the e means he's renounced.

  47. Posted by PermaGuestII | September 17, 2012 at 3:58 PM

    Building the Caprice? Eh, maybe nothing.

    Building the exact same car– the Chevrolet Caprice, Pontiac Parisienne, Buick LeSabre, and Oldsmobile 88– for four different marques and expecting nobody to notice? That's a problem.

  48. Posted by Mattchew | September 17, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    Hippies love Subarus

  49. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 4:17 PM

    Blogging, because he actually has time to vacation

  50. Posted by PermaGuestII | September 17, 2012 at 4:26 PM

    I'm un-American because I think Ford makes better cars than General Motors?

  51. Posted by WTF__k | September 17, 2012 at 4:52 PM

    Like my fucking country supported me?

    Whatever you say, Francis.

    Former GM bondholder

  52. Posted by the country | September 17, 2012 at 5:40 PM

    We had loaded up CDS on that.

    Gotta be nimble

  53. Posted by NotGuest | September 17, 2012 at 6:02 PM

    UBS Car quant?

    PS — Ask your dealer to double check those lower BJs on the Denali and don't travel with the Caddy because they eat trannys.

  54. Posted by U.A.W. | September 17, 2012 at 6:34 PM

    Um, yeah. Thanks for that.

  55. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 6:41 PM

    They still trade lean hogs

  56. Posted by leo | September 17, 2012 at 6:49 PM

    If you look at how GM has performed. It has been making a profit or that is what is being claimed. Why doesn't GM just pay back what it borrowed and that is the end of the discussion. There are so many other serious issues with the US economy and printing money which is just as valuable as toilet paper is not a solution to the Trillions of dollars in debt.

  57. Posted by Tseug | September 17, 2012 at 7:14 PM

    Terse verbiage, yet garbled. Sort of "Hemmingway-meets-not-quite-finished-with-my-ESL-classes."

  58. Posted by Sheep | September 17, 2012 at 7:47 PM

    Wait just a minute, I thought the Obama administration single handedly saved the auto industry at no cost to the taxpayers?

  59. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 9:49 PM

    You sir are the RETARDED one. The "wop" would be driving a Challenger until the Magenti Marrelli electronics failed him. F for Found O for On R for Road and D for DEAD! Effing Mustang what a queerbait mobile…….

    Other one F for Fucking O for Old R for Recycled and D for Dodge…..

    Z06 the NKI!

  60. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 9:54 PM

    You missed the 400HP Trailblazer SS in 2006 but, why would I ever expect anyone on this blog to know much about cars.

  61. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 9:55 PM

    Lezzies love Subies and tuna fish.

  62. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 9:59 PM

    F for FEEBLE I for Italian A for Attempt and T for Transportation. Comming from a guy who had to walk back from a joyride in a Delta Intregale 2 years ago. Delta was impressive before it went FORD on us. Magenti Marrelli strikes again.

  63. Posted by Guest | September 17, 2012 at 10:02 PM

    Solution because I'm a "solutions" type of guy. GM gives all Volt tooling and production lines to Oblama Admin calls everything even and moves FORWARD!

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  66. Posted by 2 cubes over | September 18, 2012 at 8:27 AM

    Couldn't corner.

    -Guy who knows a thing or two about cars

  67. Posted by DingALing | September 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM

    Chevy Runs Deep…..into the red. Bunch of homos

    -Ford

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