Here’s an interesting set of slides that Morgan Stanley CFO Ruth Porat presented at the Barclays conference today. For some reason this one struck me:

Morgan Stanley: basically a mutual fund! Half a mutual fund. Really barely at all an investment bank, which I guess is the way of the world for investment banks, but still sort of stark to see it there in black and white, er, navy and yellow. And Morgan Stanley will be shifting even more toward wealth/asset managing after today’s hotly negotiated purchase of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.1 As Reuters puts it:

For Morgan Stanley, buying more of the brokerage is part of a strategy to become less reliant on the volatile securities trading business and the investment banking business, which has been in a long rut.

I’ll leave investment banking in that rut – and that 11% of revenues – but let’s talk about that volatile securities trading business a bit. Yesterday brought a GS research note suggesting that Morgan Stanley could shrink the amount of balance sheet it devotes to FICC trading while still making almost as much money in FICC trading, because certain physical laws have been suspended and it no longer takes money to make money, at least not in FICC. That seems to be Morgan Stanley’s idea as well, with slide 17 detailing a plan involving:

  • Reduce capital in assets that are not accretive to future revenue growth
  • Act as rapidly as possible while acknowledging market limitations and client relationships
  • Consider returns in each sub-business in context of adjacencies, size and scale

I like the first one – “stop putting all our money in things that lose us money” – and it seems to have paid off; the next slide is “Case Study: Securitized Products Balance Sheet and Revenues.” I will non-expertly hypothesize that this is a cherry-picked case study of a product area where more balance sheet in recent years has meant more negative revenues but anyway go ahead Morgan Stanley:

Imagine a counterfactual universe where regulators, creditors, shareholders, etc. didn’t care about balance sheet or capital: would Morgan Stanley have made the choice to reduce securitization balance sheet and increase revenues? I feel like that would be an interesting question to answer.2

One thing that looks increasingly unlikely in a post-Dodd-Frank-Volcker-what-have-you world is a return to the old-school standalone investment-banking-and-trading businesses; the legacy bank-n-trade firms are slimming down bits of their banking-n-trading but also bulking up complementary businesses like retail banking or asset management or whatever. (Ex Goldman, which makes like 80% of its money on banking and trading, but everyone will assume Goldman is hiding a giant hedge fund somewhere even if it actually isn’t.) You could ponder a variety of unsavory explanations for that; one goes in cynical outline:

  • “investment banks”3 can’t cover their cost of capital and so need to be subsidized by the cheap funding of deposits and/or captive audiences of retail brokerage, while
  • “investment banks” provide value to bankers who sit on retail deposits and/or brokerage accounts by allowing them to (1) gamble those deposits and/or (2) cross-sell terrible investment banking products to the retail investors.

Is that right? Meh, probably not. Still, as a rule of thumb, it might be a good idea not to celebrate Morgan Stanley’s shrinking reliance on risking its own balance sheet to create revenues, until you figure out whose balance sheet MS is now risking to create (bigger!) revenues.

Ruth Porat presentation, 2012 Barclays Global Financial Services Conference [Morgan Stanley]
Morgan Stanley, Citigroup settle brokerage dispute [Reuters]
Morgan Stanley’s MSSB 8-K and joint press release [EDGAR]

1. Uhhh so let’s talk about that purchase price? MS (current 51% owner) is buying 14% from Citi (current 49% owner) today, with forwards/options to buy the remaining 35% between now and 2015, at a price equivalent to a $13.5bn valuation for the whole thing – vs. MS’s $9-ish billion and Citi’s $23-ish billion valuations. Random thoughts:

  • Perella Weinberg was brought in as a valuation agent in terrorem but ended up not doing any actual valuating. Do you think they still got paid?
  • I submit to you that even the $13.5 billion stated price of MSSB rather overstates matters, since Morgan Stanley basically gets an interest-free loan to buy most of it between now and 2015 at the same valuation, whenever it can get around to raising the cash. (Actually it’s part loan and part call option; MS has to try to get in 15% more at the $13.5bn valuation, but can dawdle on the rest, and if it doesn’t buy it by June 2015 Citi can put it to MS but at the [presumably lower, if MS hasn’t bought!] then-fair market value, not at the $13.5bn, so maybe Perella Weinberg will earn its keep.)
  • But I guess that makes sense? Consider that (1) Citi 5-year CDS is ~183, MS is ~260 and (2) Citi price/book is 0.52, MS is 0.56. So it’s more expensive for Morgan Stanley to raise a dollar than for Citi to do so, but a dollar in Morgan Stanley’s hands is worth 4 cents more than a dollar in Citi’s hands. (Neither is worth a dollar!) Ergo, Citi using its balance sheet to give Morgan Stanley free funding for MSSB is a brilliant arbitrage. Except for Citi. I dunno, thoughts?

2. Another good one is how broadly applicable is this lesson of “just drastically slash balance sheet in a product area and you’ll make more money trading it”; both are left as exercises for the reader.

3. Stupid quotes just for, like “investment bank” = “thing that does investment banking and sales & trading and not so much asset management or commercial banking or what have you.” As opposed to “investment banking” a ways above, which was just “investment banking.”

79 comments (hidden to protect delicate sensibilities)
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Comments (79)

  1. Posted by Philip Purcell | September 11, 2012 at 4:25 PM

    IF MS is the new Merril then how am I not fucking vindicated ?

  2. Posted by Sandy Weil | September 11, 2012 at 4:25 PM

    Hear Hear…. er wait

  3. Posted by Clueless | September 11, 2012 at 4:58 PM

    They get half their net revenues from Gay White Males (GWM)??!!

    -Geico Caveman

  4. Posted by The unmature | September 11, 2012 at 5:05 PM

    Don't forget the Ass Munching (AM). . .

  5. Posted by Jon Edward Corzine | September 11, 2012 at 5:14 PM

    These guys should have greater exposure to european debt with some of the excess funding client business generates.

  6. Posted by they laid me off! | September 11, 2012 at 5:27 PM

    They laid my off in 2008 from the equity trading desk in nyc.. it feels so good to see those clowns relegated to looking like a mutual fund. this reality is more painful that losing a job to half the michael milken wannabees work there.

  7. Posted by E. Cartman | September 11, 2012 at 6:10 PM

    Try to interview Steve D'Antonio about his Securitized Products model. It's actually pretty (deviously) brilliant.

  8. Posted by E. Cartman | September 11, 2012 at 6:11 PM

    Also, bravo on the footnotes.

  9. Posted by Snark McSnarky | September 11, 2012 at 6:16 PM

    Perhaps they'll take you back after you pass your 8th grade writing proficiency test.

  10. Posted by Old Fart | September 11, 2012 at 6:18 PM

    Because in this industry of 15 minute attention spans and know-it-all MBAs/CFAs, no one is going to remember WTF you are let alone Dean Witter, Bache, Paine Webber…

  11. Posted by guest | September 11, 2012 at 6:26 PM

    if ever there was a signal to keep your money far away from a full service brokerage account, this is it.

    "we haven't been doing so well with disastrously conceived structured products, mismanaged IPOs, bad merger advice and money losing prop trades, so we're [MS/UBS/ML] going to see what magic we can work with your life savings."

  12. Posted by Guest | September 11, 2012 at 6:26 PM

    Pretty sure MS still has to pay citi 35% of the profits, that counts for something right?

  13. Posted by E. Cartman | September 11, 2012 at 6:27 PM

    Are you implying that someone might have "took" your job?

  14. Posted by Alum | September 11, 2012 at 6:36 PM

    Whatcha got against Steve?

  15. Posted by UFO | September 11, 2012 at 6:42 PM

    Difference being, if my broker / F/A fucks me, I know where they and their family live

    – guy whose cousin will fuck you up, free of charge

  16. Posted by I luved her man | September 11, 2012 at 6:54 PM

    that was pretty bad when I reread it

  17. Posted by The Obvious | September 11, 2012 at 6:54 PM

    you realize three consecutive posts means your gay right

  18. Posted by John Paulson/HFA | September 11, 2012 at 6:55 PM

    It's time to go into a hedge fund

  19. Posted by guest | September 11, 2012 at 7:11 PM

    your cousin will be long dead of old age, and so probably will your broker, by the time you realize that your investments haven't even kept up with inflation after fees, churn, subpar captive mutual funds, tax inefficiency, etc. etc.

  20. Posted by Gorman | September 11, 2012 at 9:24 PM

    Tool

  21. Posted by Guest | September 11, 2012 at 9:25 PM

    Great, more MS PWM's out on the road. Stay off your bikes.

  22. Posted by Gorman | September 11, 2012 at 9:25 PM

    Another tool

  23. Posted by JPM CIO | September 11, 2012 at 10:52 PM

    as long as the overall exposures are being hedged dynamically.

  24. Posted by guest | September 12, 2012 at 12:32 AM

    guestw how to fix that problem!

    -UBS MD

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    Gerry Sandusky?

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