Now that we’re nearly halfway through October, several items on your to-do list will have undoubtedly been upgraded in urgency: scouring Starbucks near and far for for Pumpkin Spice lattes before it’s too late, and being dead serious in telling the baristas at the various locations claiming unavailability that they’ve ruined your life; coming up with a Halloween costume that’s at once slutty and topical; and discussing bonus expectations. Despite the fact that bank CEOs and people who speak on their behalf have suggested (by saying outright) that pay will come down this year, and that anyone who still has a job in 3-4 months should consider that their bonus, some on Wall Street are apparently predicting they’ll do pretty well for themselves this year and very well circa 2015.

There seems to be a disconnect between what Wall Street execs have been reading lately and what they believe. Nearly half (48%) of them surveyed by eFinancialCareers expect their bonus to be higher this year despite recent news reports to the contrary…Of those who believe bonuses will increase in the next three years, over half (53%) are convinced bonuses will return to 2006-2007 levels.

For those not as confident their take-home will soon revert to the glory days and looking to make a change into a more lucrative field Bloomberg today notes that “welders top banking pay.”*

Despite news reports that Wall Street bonuses will be down, more Wall Streeters are expecting them to be higher [eF]
Wall Street to Cut Pay Instead of Jobs, Graseck Says [BW]
Caterpillar’s Worker Hunt Means Welders Top Banking Pay [Bloomberg]
Related: Layoffs/Bonus Watch ’12/’13: Morgan Stanley
*…Though not until paragraph 15 is it made clear that they’re actually talking about the pay of ‘bank tellers,’ which: what? 1) I think most people could have told you a union welder would make more than a bank teller, just as they could probably make the educated guess that doctors, lawyers, hedge fund managers and particularly sought-after dog walkers fare better than BTs on pay day, since bank teller ≠ banker and 2) To that end, is this a new series? Jobs you may or may not have known pay more than $47,900/year? Because while very servicey for all the bank tellers reading who’ve been thinking about making a jump, it seems less than helpful to the core audience.

Comments (56)

  1. Posted by UBS MD | October 9, 2012 at 1:05 PM

    Bank teller make HOW much????!?!?

  2. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:05 PM

    I'm glad I still have a job.

    –Guy sitting next to three empty desks

  3. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:06 PM

    I think my subconscious misses the Bonobos guy..

  4. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:12 PM

    cool story.

  5. Posted by CoveredLong | October 9, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    The survey was confusing – I couldn't tell whether the "Payday > 100 grand" selection was asking about my bonus or my candy bar preference?

    -UBS Consumer Staples Analyst

  6. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:13 PM

    per the (worthless) bberg article, that's 47k is how much a supervisor makes. rank and file tellers are probably more like 35.

  7. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:17 PM

    So 50% of the employees think their pay will be above average. And half of all doctors have finished in the bottom half of their med school class.

  8. Posted by let them eat dog | October 9, 2012 at 1:17 PM

    Clearly not going to compare with a job for the state.

  9. Posted by Asshole | October 9, 2012 at 1:20 PM

    Slightly more than people who come up with original jokes in blog comments.

  10. Posted by krautmick | October 9, 2012 at 1:22 PM

    suggested tags: The (Da) Nile, River, Egypt

  11. Posted by Guy on Matt's Couch | October 9, 2012 at 1:24 PM

    Second installment in that series: Bloggers make more than bankers!*

    *Only in the fifteenth footnote is it revealed that total take home includes profits from bloggers' "efficient capital markets hypotheses theoretical model price discovery testing post research activities and related market transactions88"

    **This may mean insider trading

  12. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:25 PM

    swing and a miss.

  13. Posted by let them eat dog | October 9, 2012 at 1:27 PM
  14. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:27 PM

    the article says 50 think they'll do better than they did last year, which is not the same thing as saying they "think their pay will be above average." you get that, right?

  15. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:28 PM

    And 100% of all private equity GPs are in the top quartile.

    - guy who hates that joke…and Dan Primack

  16. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:30 PM

    Bess, do you have top bucket 1st year welders' numbers?

  17. Posted by pazzo83 | October 9, 2012 at 1:30 PM

    Get off the couch and get a job.

  18. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:32 PM

    Right. Also, they need to see you in the little conference room no one ever uses down the hall. Bring your blackberry.

  19. Posted by Guy on Matt's Couch | October 9, 2012 at 1:32 PM

    Eh, I'm house sitting for a guy who doesn't have cable and whose entire house is stuffed with textbooks and copies of old pitchbooks he worked on, sorry the comedic juices aren't really flowing.

  20. Posted by Zombanker | October 9, 2012 at 1:39 PM

    Brainzzz are my bonus. Banker brainzzz.

  21. Posted by InfiniteGuest | October 9, 2012 at 1:48 PM

    Sparks fly from the crucible of Bloomberg's cutting-edge economic trends analysis.

  22. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 1:56 PM

    Given we now only recruit from Indiana University, you're getting fucked this year, too.

    -Goldman MD

  23. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:03 PM

    Stick welding or plasma arc?

  24. Posted by little things | October 9, 2012 at 2:14 PM

    "revert back" is redundant.

    pleonastically yours,

    UBS grammar quant

  25. Posted by Liz M | October 9, 2012 at 2:21 PM

    Uh, this isn't a clear inconsistency.

    Suppose everyone works on wall street for 2 years. In their first year, they get x dollars, and the second year, they get 10x dollars, and everyone quits/is fired before 3rd year bonus.

    Every year management sets x. This year bonuses are 30% lower than last year. Still, everyone in the industry is getting a bigger bonus than they did last year.

  26. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:27 PM

    "everyone in the industry is getting a bigger bonus than they did last year."

    kind of a bold statement to make in october, no?

  27. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

    "everyone in the industry is getting a bigger bonus than they did last year."

    and you know this definitively how?

  28. Posted by Career Center | October 9, 2012 at 2:29 PM

    Take the couch with you to the interivew

  29. Posted by GM-Laid-Me-Off | October 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM

    Trained in all three.

  30. Posted by Sensitive Guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:35 PM

    Turn around
    Every now and then I get a little bit lonely
    and you're never coming round
    Turn around
    Every now and then I get a little bit tired of listening to the sound
    of my tears
    Turn around
    Every now and then I get a little bit nervous that the best of all the
    years've gone by
    Turn around
    Every now and then I get a little bit terrified and then
    I see the look in your eyes
    Turn around, bright eyes
    Every now and then I fall apart
    Turn around, bright eyes
    Every now and then I fall apart

  31. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:36 PM

    +1 on hating Primack

  32. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:36 PM

    52% of wall street are liars

  33. Posted by Guest of a Guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:39 PM

    Grammar issues aside, I'll take the over.

  34. Posted by PermaGuestII | October 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

    The flaw in your logic is that "management" of a financial firm is a subset of "everyone in the industry."

    Unless you believe (as some apparently do) that Wall Street is controlled by an odd melange of the leadership of the National Socialist German Workers Party, the Elders of Zion, and a marine invertebrate.

  35. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Maybe the 53% interpreted the question to mean that they themselves would revert to their 06-07 bonus levels…7 years later.

  36. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:47 PM

    Anyone expecting a 50% increase please report to my office!

    -J Dimon

  37. Posted by Abe_Froman_ | October 9, 2012 at 2:50 PM

    There are two shift keys that both magically turn your 8's into *'s

  38. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 2:54 PM

    Bloggers who use asterisks are 50% more likely to make more than bankers***

    (by bankers, we mean the guys who clean the toilets at GS)

    -UBS asterisk quant

  39. Posted by WASP w/freetime | October 9, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    No one even thinks we're part of the conspiracy anymore, wow, guess I'll just hang out here in Greenwich and mind the garden.

  40. Posted by UBS Back Office | October 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM

    Well, technically you only need one shift key.

    -Guy whose other shift key was cannibalized to help "leverage cross cultural cost cutting techniques"

  41. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 3:09 PM

    not really

  42. Posted by guest | October 9, 2012 at 3:16 PM

    Tough but fair.

  43. Posted by Lord Humongous | October 9, 2012 at 3:36 PM

    60% of the time, it works every time

  44. Posted by Franks's dad | October 9, 2012 at 3:36 PM

    I believe these are the proper lyrics…
    [youtube dpzIl48YFEk http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpzIl48YFEk youtube]

  45. Posted by Liz M | October 9, 2012 at 3:39 PM

    This is part of the thought experiment where I said that "in the second year, everyone gets 10x dollars". So all second years are getting more than they did the previous year *under these assumptions*

    I didn't say the world actually looks like this; I'm just saying it's possible for the average increase to be positive and the overall pool to be smaller.

  46. Posted by Liz M | October 9, 2012 at 3:40 PM

    It's true for this model. Definitely not true for the real world.

  47. Posted by Liz M | October 9, 2012 at 3:41 PM

    In this toy model management could be a computer program. I'm just giving a thought experiment to show that it's possible for the average increase to be positive and the overall bonus pool to be smaller.

  48. Posted by UBS Bubblegum Quant | October 9, 2012 at 3:47 PM

    I get paid in layers

  49. Posted by La Guesta | October 9, 2012 at 3:51 PM

    ssshhhhhhhhh

    -Paul the Soccer Team Picking Octopus

  50. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 4:05 PM

    I did!

    - J. Lin, Houston Rockets

  51. Posted by Alex R | October 9, 2012 at 4:08 PM

    I feel his pain

  52. Posted by Guest | October 9, 2012 at 4:10 PM

    Lighten up Francis.

    - guy who doesn't let facts get in the way of a good joke. Or even mediocre jokes.

  53. Posted by Nervous in NJ | October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

    It was funnier without the asterisk, Matt FFS stop giving Bess pointers.

  54. Posted by Mitch Martin | October 9, 2012 at 4:39 PM

    I haven't seen Frank's dad in like 8 years, that's awesome.

  55. Posted by theonepercent | October 9, 2012 at 11:50 PM

    1st year @ elite boutique (think LAZ, GHL, EVR)

    base: 70k
    top bucket: 65k

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