Fewer bodies, more often. Read more »
Archive for 2012
“Investors Expect Libor To Be Replaced Within Five Years,” Enter Five-Year Libor Swaps Anyway
By Matt LevineIt’s time to play survey results versus revealed preferences. First:
A key interest rate for more than $500 trillion of securities worldwide will be replaced by a benchmark subject to greater government control, according to a plurality of global investors.
Forty-four percent of those responding to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll said the London interbank offered rate, known as Libor, will be supplanted by a more regulated model within five years. Thirty-four percent predicted the rate will continue to be set by banks in the current fashion, while 22 percent said they didn’t know.
That’s from a poll of 847 randomly selected Bloomberg users, which is sort of a fascinating data set; like, Dealbreaker is a Bloomberg user (but, sadly, not surveyed). The substance is interesting too, beyond the Libor question.*
But, anyway, the Libor question: the plurality answer is “Five years from now, do you think LIBOR will … Be replaced by something more like a government-run rate.” What is a government-run rate? Meh, whatever, but have a look at revealed preferences:
That is from LCH.Clearnet’s data depository of cleared interest-rate swaps and actually tells you nothing about what we’re talking about but it looks pretty. Read more »
Things could be better in Europe. Read more »
Bondholders Put On Speed Dial (WSJ)
At Wall Street giants Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, the quarterly earnings calls for stock analysts tend to get most of the attention. But another kind of call, this one for bondholders, is moving to the fore. The New York securities firms this summer for the first time held conference calls targeting fixed-income investors. Morgan Stanley and Goldman are seeking out new buyers for their debt in an effort to lower interest rates that are now higher than what industrial companies pay.
Investors Expect Libor To Be Replaced Within Five Years (Bloomberg)
Forty-four percent of those responding to a quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll said the London interbank offered rate, known as Libor, will be supplanted by a more regulated model within five years. Thirty-four percent predicted the rate will continue to be set by banks in the current fashion, while 22 percent said they didn’t know.
Greek Decline Sharper Than Expected (WSJ)
Greek gross domestic product contracted 6.3% on the year in the second quarter. That is a revision from the 6.2% drop reported in the provisional estimate last month and compares with a 6.5% fall in the first quarter and a contraction of 7.3% in the second quarter of 2011.
Jobless Greeks Resolved to Work Clean Toilets in Sweden (Bloomberg)
As a pharmaceutical salesman in Greece for 17 years, Tilemachos Karachalios wore a suit, drove a company car and had an expense account. He now mops schools in Sweden, forced from his home by Greece’s economic crisis. “It was a very good job,” said Karachalios, 40, of his former life. “Now I clean Swedish s—.” Karachalios, who left behind his six-year-old daughter to be raised by his parents, is one of thousands fleeing Greece’s record 24 percent unemployment and austerity measures that threaten to undermine growth. The number of Greeks seeking permission to settle in Sweden, where there are more jobs and a stable economy, almost doubled to 1,093 last year from 2010, and is on pace to increase again this year. “I’m trying to survive,” Karachalios said in an interview in Stockholm. “It’s difficult here, very difficult. I would prefer to stay in Greece. But we don’t have jobs.”
Private Equity Tests Pension Funds Patience (WSJ)
A new report by a consultant to the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, or Calstrs, shows that returns from large U.S. buyout funds are lagging behind many of the pension’s internal benchmarks.
Vladimir Putin Muses On The Benefits Of Group Sex (Telegraph)
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has mused that group sex is better than one-on-one intercourse because participants can take a break. Mr. Putin made the observation on Thursday in his first interview since his inauguration in May, with the Kremlin-controlled, English-language RT television channel. “Some fans of group sex say that it’s better than one-on-one because, as with any collective work, you can skive off,” he said. The comment came after the Russian leader had spoken about an orgy that was staged in Moscow’s state biology museum in 2008 which involved Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, 22, one of three feminist activists of the Pu**y Riot group who were jailed for two years for hooliganism last month after a politically charged trial. Read more »
$$$ JPMorgan Said To Face Escalating Senate Probe Of CIO Loss [Bloomberg]
$$$ J.P. Morgan Names New Chief Investment Officer [Deal Journal]
$$$ Banks now like to do quarterly calls with bondholders [WSJ]
$$$ Some people still like big banks [Bloomberg]
$$$ FINRA is suing a test-prep firm for taking Series 7, etc., exams 64 times, failing 52 of those times, and memorizing the questions to tell their students [Reuters; the complaint is also amusing]
$$$ [Harvard] Economics concentrator Ali E. Evans ’13 received his [Harvard Business School] acceptance email on Wednesday while sitting in class next to his roommates. He said he celebrated silently and texted his parents. Evans said he has visited classes at the Business School with his tutors at Kirkland House since sophomore year. “Leading my own company one day is definitely a goal of mine, and so business school definitely fits in with that plan,” he said. [Crimson]
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Soon it will be time for Congress to shout at bankers about derivatives again and that’s fine, but allow me to indulge a bit in mourning for a derivative that Basel III killed today. That being of course SunTrust’s postpaid bifurcated collateralized variable share forward on its Coca-Cola stake:
SunTrust Bank’s third quarter is about to be a bit of a kitchen sink report, and that includes tossing out its old stash of Coca-Cola. … Included in the asset shuffle will be the sale of 60 million shares of Coca-Cola Co. that the bank has held for nearly 100 years, a sale that will lead to a $1.9 billion pre-tax gain in the quarter.
SunTrust had in 2008 entered into two contracts to sell its Coke shares in 2014 and 2015. But after reviewing its position in light of new global capital regulations known as Basel III, SunTrust realized holding onto its Coke shares would punish its capital standing and decided to move forward the sales. The bank also said owning the shares hurt its stress-test results.
Probably nobody cares about this but me, but the derivative in question is among the works of art in the financial world so I want to share it with you.* Basically what happened is (all numbers rounded and split-adjusted): Read more »
Employees within fixed income may need to find room at another inn. Read more »
In a hypothetical scenario, which former treasury secretary, among all the living ones, do you think would be most likely to drink his face off and fall in a pool? Process of elimination should point to Larry Summers, with Hank Paulson being an interesting dark horse, right? Except, wrong! Big Poppa, that we know of, was sober enough to stay standing last night and Hank Paulson is yet to encounter his own personal Sophie’s Choice, wherein a vindictive Dick Fuld forces him to pick between a glass of red and the life of an innocent Warbler. Which leaves door number three: Bob “I took a bath in grain alcohol before getting here” Rubin. Read more »
Nomura is said to be encouraging people in equities to consider their options elsewhere but it’s okay because this is all part of a plan. Read more »




