The idea: Take a long position in large-cap bank indexes in the U.S., Europe and Japan.
How to implement this: Goldman suggests taking on a position through equal parts of the KBW Bank Sector Index in the U.S., the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index and the Topix Banks Index in Japan. Goldman suggests an initial target of a gain of 20% and a stop at a loss of 10%.
And why: The investment bank expects a “significant pick-up” in developed market economic growth stemming from domestic demand strength.
Of course, an even better idea might be to just throw those bucks right into GS and cut out the middleman (and Brian Moynihan and Jamie Dimon). And, while you’re at it, diversify with this little nugget, if you can figure it out.
“Long 7-Year CDX IG21 junior mezzanine tranche.”
The rationale: “(It) reflects our view that 2014 is likely to remain a credit carry-friendly environment featuring better growth, low inflation, low volatility and accommodative monetary policy,” Goldman said.
In other words, the outlook for companies is bright and the potential for rising default risk is low.
Goldman Sachs Gem #6: Developed Market Bank Stocks [WSJ MoneyBeat blog]
Goldman Sachs’s Big Idea #5: Bet Against Defaults [WSJ MoneyBeat blog]