Here’s Kent Engelke, explaining the math he used to come up with that prediction. Take the 7% of presidents who have been impeached or resigned, ignore the fact that 0% of impeached presidents have actually been removed from office, then add 3%, just for the hell of it.

“If ObamaCare is the fiasco that some headlines are suggesting it is, I place the odds around 10% the president will resign before next November’s election,” said Kent Engelke, managing director at the brokerage Capitol Securities Management. Engelke, who has more than 27 years of experience in the securities industry, says he got the 10% number from a simple calculation: 7% of all U.S. presidents faced impeachment or resignation (Presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached, while President Nixon resigned). He adds in another 3% due to the heightened animosity between president Obama and Republicans in congress.

And here’s Dick Bové, acting as the voice of reason on this one.

Veteran Wall Street analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Capital says Engelke’s prediction is unusual for a market analyst, and far too simplistic. “It’s not normal for a financial analyst to make predictions of that nature,” Bove said. “The reality is that if the president resigns, it creates chaos.”

Analyst Sees Chance of Obama Resignation [FBN]

Comments (10)

  1. Posted by Flo | December 4, 2013 at 2:56 PM

    So, you're saying there's a chance? YES!

  2. Posted by .Bo | December 4, 2013 at 2:58 PM

    Kent Engelke spent a little too much time inventing risk premiums so his MD got the WACC he so desperately wanted.

  3. Posted by ThatsVVacc | December 4, 2013 at 3:06 PM

    Let's see…

    - Opening bell has been posted before the actual opening bell 1 out of 3 times this week, so 33%
    - Assuming a Shazar Incompetence Probability Discount (or SIPD) of -21%

    I'm getting a 12% chance that opening bell is posted on time both tomorrow and Friday.

    K. Engelke

  4. Posted by guest | December 4, 2013 at 3:08 PM

    mouseover excellence

  5. Posted by Jo Mo | December 4, 2013 at 3:13 PM

    According to my calculations, by taking the number of jobs that Obama is actually qualified to hold (roughly 1 milllion out of the 136 million jobs in US), and dividing that by total jobs, there is a 99.3% chance that he DOESN'T resign. Of course, SportsCenter might whore themselves and offer him a chair just for the pub, so subtracting that possibility gets us to 99.2999999%

  6. Posted by Guest | December 4, 2013 at 4:01 PM

    "One foot on the banana peel at all times"

    -caption under Kent Engelke's picture in his high school yearbook.

  7. Posted by Dr. Van Nostrum | December 4, 2013 at 4:50 PM

    I would discount that Sportscenter position by a factor of 3. Their people tend to be good at speaking extemporaneously, due to the notoriously shitty teleprompters in-studio.

  8. Posted by Guest | December 5, 2013 at 8:17 AM

    Im trying to figure out which is more ridiculous, Fox Business covering a prediction from a nobody at a rinky dink broker dealer in Richmond or Dick Bove commenting on the commentary of a nobody at a rinky dink broker dealer in Richmond?

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