Here’s Kent Engelke, explaining the math he used to come up with that prediction. Take the 7% of presidents who have been impeached or resigned, ignore the fact that 0% of impeached presidents have actually been removed from office, then add 3%, just for the hell of it.
“If ObamaCare is the fiasco that some headlines are suggesting it is, I place the odds around 10% the president will resign before next November’s election,” said Kent Engelke, managing director at the brokerage Capitol Securities Management. Engelke, who has more than 27 years of experience in the securities industry, says he got the 10% number from a simple calculation: 7% of all U.S. presidents faced impeachment or resignation (Presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached, while President Nixon resigned). He adds in another 3% due to the heightened animosity between president Obama and Republicans in congress.
And here’s Dick Bové, acting as the voice of reason on this one.
Veteran Wall Street analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Capital says Engelke’s prediction is unusual for a market analyst, and far too simplistic. “It’s not normal for a financial analyst to make predictions of that nature,” Bove said. “The reality is that if the president resigns, it creates chaos.”