Analytic Investors’ patented contrarian return-on-investment Super Bowl model missed only once, when the Giants beat the Patriots—and not the time you’re thinking of. Its analysis is telling it that Peyton Manning and the Broncos are a sure thing to win by at least a field goal, good enough to cover the point spread and make you as much money as you are willing to wager.

This year’s Super Bowl matchup features the lower-alpha Denver Broncos (4.6%) against the higher-alpha Seattle Seahawks (13.7%). As noted previously, we have found evidence that lower-alpha teams in the regular season tend to be undervalued throughout the post- season. Thus, as current 2-point favorites, we think Peyton Manning & Co. will overcome Richard Sherman’s arrogance to win this one by at least a field goal.

You might want to take those winnings and short a few indices with them, because of the tried-and-sometimes-true “NFC Super Bowl champion equals good year for stocks” indicator. On the other hand, the “Broncos winning the Super Bowl is good for the market” indicator might lead you to do otherwise.

Mr. Parets says this year’s indicator is a “lose-lose” for the market, as neither team, the Broncos and Seahawks, traces its roots back to the old original NFL. But there is some hope, he added: while the indicator has an 85% “success” rate, the Broncos have for whatever reason been among the small group of championship teams that have “produced” rising stock markets in the years they won the title, even though they are an old AFL team.

NFL Alphas 2013-2014 [Analytic Investors]
This Hedge Fund Thinks It Knows The Result Of The Super Bowl [BI]
The Super Bowl and the Market: A ‘Lose-Lose’ Indicator This Year [WSJ MoneyBeat blog]

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Comments (9)

  1. Posted by No Remorse | January 31, 2014 at 3:11 PM

    The thought of watching Shaz struggle to write four entire sentences for this post make up for how I pissed I was at the late OB.

  2. Posted by Guest | January 31, 2014 at 3:16 PM

    this hedge fund is talking out its arse. this year's superbowl is the first win-win superbowl because the fans of both sides will be so mellow, it won't matter whoever lost.
    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052
    "Profiting from America's First 'Stoner Bowl'"

  3. Posted by guest | January 31, 2014 at 3:19 PM

    hell yes!

  4. Posted by Guest | January 31, 2014 at 3:35 PM

    Though admittedly starting from a very low base, his tags seem to be getting better. It only took him a year

  5. Posted by Analyst | January 31, 2014 at 3:53 PM

    Our patented Dealbreaker tags-by-which-author model is 100% sure Bess wrote the tags

  6. Posted by Bored Guest | January 31, 2014 at 4:50 PM

    Go Supersonics!

  7. Posted by D. Gartman | February 3, 2014 at 8:21 AM

    Back in August, I predicted these clowns would be wrong about the Super Bowl.

  8. Posted by Gartman PR LLC | February 3, 2014 at 11:34 AM

    One does not simply go long a bet in dollar terms. I am long the Broncos in yen while shorting the Seahawks in vietnamese dong. In trading, one must do more of what works and less of that which doesn't. For those who have the stomach, you can trade it in silver terms.

    A reminder of an old adage which has kept me in the game for the past thirty years: "if you complicate a trade enough, no one will know that you are losing money."

    -D. Gartman

  9. Posted by Updater | February 3, 2014 at 2:32 PM

    Maybe it is time to update this post