The entire world outside the borders of the United States of America is transfixed by the Quadrennial International Tournament of Soccer, or “World Cup,” which began yesterday when one country that some Americans have heard of defeated a team that fewer Americans have heard of.
Now, if you happen to be one of the handful of Americans that have heard of both of them, and are paying attention to the great hands-less sporting contest, and you read this blog, you probably already know one of the countries already mentioned, Brazil, is going to win, because Goldman Sachs says so. Or Spain, because ING has determined through highly speculative means that its players are the most valuable in the world. But things are not so simple, according to Macquarie, which provides a much-needed, Nate Silver-esque* quantitative answer to a question that will have a definitive answer exactly one month from today.
Instead of using past performances or the market value of teams to pick the winner, the analysts at Macquarie took a quantitative approach, assigning equal weights to factors including value, momentum, sentiment, quality and unique data….
Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England, Argentina, Portugal and Uruguay will head into the quarterfinals. The analysts say Brazil will beat Uruguay, Germany will shut out France, Spain will eliminate England and Argentina will top Portugal.
In the semifinals, Spain and Germany will edge out the two South American teams before Germany takes the cup in the final game.
Great! A no-doubt, sure-thing prediction. No need to watch this thing at all, because math has it all figured out, right?
Germany edges out Spain on the sentiment and momentum factors, but it was one analyst’s personal rankings which helped to put Germany ahead on sentiment.
* for what it’s worth, Nate Silver’s going with Goldman Sachs—and Brazil.
Macquarie Takes a Quantitative Approach to the World Cup [WSJ MoneyBeat blog]
It’s Brazil’s World Cup to Lose