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Even with just a paltry 36.11% success rate, Goldman survived a highly unpredictable first round, as the equally uninspiring Brazilians they picked to win the whole thing managed to survive Cameroon and Croatia.
Ahead of this year’s tournament, some of the bank’s economists had analyzed reams of data to predict the outcome of every game. The results have been less than impressive.
Of the 36 games played so far in the group stages of the competition, Goldman has had a 36.11% success rate in predicting the direction of the games. Its model, you might remember, is based on data gathered from mandatory international football matches since 1960….
Goldman still predicts that Brazil will win, but it now thinks it will face the Netherlands, and not Argentina in the final. The updates table shows the USA making it through to the Group of 16 stage, whereas previous estimates expected it to be knocked out at the initial group stages. Spain, which Goldman thought would reach the semi-finals, of course has gone.
And with it ING, which had nailed its flag to the reigning champions on account of their being speculatively the most financial valuable squad around. Still very much alive is Macquarie, which expects Germany to prevail (by beating the Spanish in a now-impossible final).
World Cup Surprises Trip Up Goldman Sachs [WSJ MoneyBeat blog]