Analysts

We already know that there’s an extremely high turn-over rate at Forbes.com because of the “sweatshop”-like conditions, but would somebody like to explain the attrition rate of 50% among analysts at Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley? Surely Dick Fuld isn’t making anyone stitch t-shirts by hand for 16-hours a day as part of his partnership with the Gap. (He knows plenty of less uppity kids in Vietnam).
So what then? Institutional Investor reports that 47-62% of analysts at those firms, who published research in 2003, dropped all coverage by 2006. There was no indication of who switched to other firms, went buyside or retired. The study noted surprise at such steep attrition rates and attributed the highest factors to “commission compression, the sell-side business model changes brought on by the Global Research Settlement, and increased competition for research from the buy-side.” But we want more details—did associates peace because their jobs sucked? Because Lloyd Blankfein was/is too palsy with his employees? Because they wanted to be shepherds? Let’s hear if from the horse(s)’ mouth(s).
50% Of Analysts Dropped Out Since ’03 [Daily ii]

  • 08 Mar 2007 at 12:33 PM
  • Analysts

Uhmm…Backanalyzing?

insider_trading graphic.jpgYeah. We think backanalyzing sounds as dirty as you do.
But not just like that. That’s the backdating-derived name we’ve given to the latest scandal to rock Wall Street some four months after it broke. You probably ignored it the first time around because we sure did. A refresher: it’s the one where a group of academics have accused Thompson Financial of cooking its books—or allowing its books to be cooked by analysts or maybe just being sloppy about keeping the books—to make the calls by analysts seem better than they were. (Some background from DealBook here and here.) We’re not sure why attention has returned to this thing but it has.
Here’s DealBook on the resurged scandal:
We thought it was dead, but the controversy over a widely used database of Wall Street research has popped up again. The debate began last fall when a group of researchers questioned the integrity of Thomson Financial’s I/B/E/S service, a clearinghouse of analysts’ stock picks. The researchers appeared to backtrack after Thomson disputed their methodology, but last month they published the paper and are standing by its conclusions.
“Is it sleazy fraud or inadvertent error?” a headline on Slate asks. “You be the judge.”
In their paper titled “Rewriting History,” professors Alexander Ljungqvist of New York University, Christopher J. Malloy of the London Business School and Felicia C. Marston of the University of Virginia say they found 55,000 changes to the database from 1993 to 2002 that tend to make certain stock analysts look good.
Thompson denies that there is anything wrong with their databases. It’s the researchers who don’t know how to use the tools developed for people in the business.

If analyzed as a whole, all of the data these authors claim is missing is actually present and accessible. The writers of the report clearly had little experience in dealing with Thomson Financial’s system, which is designed for financial professionals.

Translation: Go back to your ivory tower, egg-heads. We here down on the Street have real work to do.

Slate’s Daniel Gross, who first reported on the paper on Tuesday, writes that its hard to tell who to believe. Except that, you know, you probably can’t trust Wall Street. Note how he begins on with a touch of faux-humility before going for the jugular.
It’s hard to know what to conclude. Most of my fellow financial journalists and I aren’t competent to judge the methodology of the academics. Most of my fellow financial journalists and I also routinely, and uncritically, rely on Thomson Financial for data we use in articles.
Wall Street executives—stock analysts among them—have shown that there’s virtually nothing they won’t do, and nobody they won’t corrupt, to advance their own careers and portfolios. Until a few years ago, people would have thought it impossible that a telecom analyst would offer to swap favorable stock recommendations for help in getting a child into preschool. Or that mutual funds would let certain investors trade in and out of their funds after the market closed for guaranteed profits. Or that well-known companies would mislead investors by backdating options for CEOs ensure that compensation that is supposed to be at risk would be guaranteed. And yet, here we are.

Okay, Danny. But until a few years ago, a lot of us never thought well-known financial journalists would generate pseudo-scandals like backdating. Or that politicians would pass irresponsible legislation like Sarbanes-Oxley without much thought about the consequences or costs just to appease a temporary (and largely media generated panic) about corporate corruption. Or that prosecutors would ask courts to impose sentences like the ones we saw come out of the Enron case. And yet, and yet.
The Coming Wall Street Scandal [Slate]
Are Some Stock Analysts Rewriting History? [DealBook]

NewYorkPostNYTMorganStanleyGraphic.jpgMorgan Stanley’s stock analysts downgraded the stock of the New York Times to the equivalent of a “sell” rating yesterday, the New York Post reports this morning.

Publishing analyst Lisa Monaco cut her rating on the stock from “hold” to “underweight” – the equivalent of “sell” – saying that the Times’ revenue is deteriorating and that, contrary to some investor expectations, a sale of part or all of the company is “implausible.”
The negative report came only a day after a Morgan Stanley investment fund based in London stepped up a campaign to push the Times to take away either the chairman or publisher posts from scion Arthur “Pinch” Sulzberger, Jr. and the two-tiered stock structure that keeps the family in control of the company.

Although the New York Post is treating this a blow to Pinch (see graphic on left), ironically the downgrade might indicate good news for the chairman/publisher. If the changes demanded by Morgan Stanley’s investment fund were realistically in the pipeline, Morgan Stanely analysts probably wouldn’t have downgraded the stock. The downgrade is a vote of no-confidence in Pinch but its also a sign that he’s probably pretty safe in both his jobs at the Times. That meter is never going to reach KO.
Times Scared [New York Post]

Merrill topped Bloomberg’s analysis of analysts, making sixty-eight winning calls on stocks in the two year period studied. Behind Merrill were second ranked UBS, third place Credit Suisse, fourth Morgan Stanley and fifth Deutsche Bank.
Even all those correct calls haven’t brought analysts back to their internet boom glory, however.

“The age of the rock star analyst is gone,” says Browning, who spent 18 years covering airlines at Merrill Lynch, Oppenheimer & Co. and Wertheim Schroeder & Co. before rising through the ranks. “The age of the alpha-generating analyst is here.”
The rock stars had more fun. These days, analysts are working harder for less money. Pay — which had poisoned the system because analysts’ compensation was linked to investment banking work — has been cut almost in half.
Senior analysts now earn about $600,000 a year, down from $1 million in 2000, says Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates Inc., a New York-based compensation consulting firm.

Merrill, UBS, Credit Suisse Prove Most Accurate Choosing Stocks [Bloomberg]

Bush Says U.S. Will Keep Pressing Spread of Democracy
–Bloomberg News Service
Bear Stearns Upgrades Thailand Following Military Coup
–Dow Jones Newswire

eminem.htmMeet Mike Masdea, a well-respected semi-conductor analyst at Credit Suisse in San Francisco. Recently it seems* Mike decided to add a little color to the blast voicemails the bank sends out to institutional clients with market recommendations. And by color we mean making his recommendation in the form of a version of Eminem’s “Lose Yourself.” He begins: “If you have just one shot, a single opportunity to seize the bottom of the cycle, one moment, would you capture it? Or just let it slip?”
If only all conference calls could be this entertaining. Mike Masdea, the new Eminem, deserves a medal. Who knew Silicon Valley was the next 8 Mile?
Right click and and download the file here.