Fundamental analysis.
Last month the dollar has strongly fallen in price concerning a basket of six basic world currencies such as euro, pound sterling, yen, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar and the Swedish crone. So, for last month EUR/USD has grown up by 8 % and has reached $1,40 level.
However on May, 25-26th the dollar has a little strengthened the positions due to negative fundamental news from Europe together with a technical picture of price movement.
Some reasons have affected euro easing.
There was not so positive data from German institute IFO. The international rating agency Moody's Investors Service has lowered forecasts of two Bulgarian banks ratings. Daily Telegraph has published the information about possibility of increase in Deutsche Bank bad debts volume. Estimated debts are 200 billion euro, and the volume of write-offs can reach 816 billion euro that exceeds the general reserves of German financial institutions twice.
On May, 26th level of Germany gross national product for the first quarter of 2009 is published. For the first three months of this year the German economy was reduced by 3,8 % in comparison with IV quarter of 2008 and by 6,9 % against I quarter of 2008, as well as analysts expected. The index of consumer confidence GfK for June remains at 2,5 the fourth month successively.
On Tuesday the data of prices for the inhabited real estate in USA are expected. It is supposed that rates of prices reduction in March were slowed down again, having made 18,4 % against 18,6 % in February.
On Tuesday the auction of 2-year Treasury note ($40 billion), on Wednesday - 5-year Treasury note ($35 billion), on Thursday - 7-year Treasury note ($26 billion) are planned. Auctions will reflect the American dollar appeal to investors against speculations about the USA rating decrease.