Fundamental analysis.
On May, 3rd the dollar has a little won back the falling relatively to euro. EUR/USD has decreased by 1%. Investors, against negative macrostatistics, left highly remunerative currencies, preferring the American dollar and US treasuries. First, US Factory Orders index in April has grown only by 0,7%, instead of expected 1,1%. Secondly, ISM non-manufacturing index in May has reached 44,0 in comparison with 43,7 in April and contrary to expectations of 45,0. This indicator is above 50 throughout eight months on end, specifying economic activity reduction. Thirdly, the number of workplaces in the American companies in April has decreased by 545 thousand, according to report of ADP Employer Services. Fourthly, against the bad statistical data almost all share platforms of the world have decreased.
Today all attention is concentrated on European Central Bank session on which the decision about the key interest rate level will be made. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada will also make decisions about key interest rates. Performances of the Federal Reserve System chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB chairman Jean-Claude Trichet are planned for today.
Today the following block of macroeconomic statistics is expected:
1/ Retail sales in the Eurozone for April (previous value - -0,6%, forecast - +0,2%).
2/ Jobless Claims in USA for week (previous value – 623H, forecast – 620H).
However, analysts predict that the euro will continue to become stronger relatively to dollar. It is connected, first of all, with possible acceleration of inflation rates. State budget huge deficiency is threat of US financial stability.