If you are in the business of selling derivatives you have to value them from time to time, because counterparties want to know what their thing is worth, and regulators want to know how deep in the hole you are. This is not always as easy as valuing a stock by just going out and getting a quote. But the principles can be stated sort of simply: you just take an integral of your net discounted cash flows over every possible future state of the world, appropriately probability weighted.*
Easy to say, but hard to do, because you have only so much direct access to possible future states of the world. Fortunately there are rules of thumb for this, of greater or lesser reliability, which exclude the unlikely and immaterial states of the world (your BAC warrants are worth zero if the world ends this Friday, but that’s unlikely; you’re perhaps equally likely to eat a bacon bowl or a salad for lunch tomorrow, but your choice will have only an immaterial effect on the value of your BAC warrants). All of these methods, however, provide only market-sanctioned guesses about the fair value of your derivatives; if the future world moves in ways not contemplated by the moving parts of your model your calculations are just wrong.
This is, I’ve always thought, a nice way to think of the world, and certainly more conceptually satisfying than “it’s worth what people will pay for it” or “it’s worth what the formula says.” And once you get into thinking of things this way, you can have fun thinking of all the possible things that (1) are not trivially unlikely and (2) would have a not trivial effect on your stuff.
Like, it turns out, your own demise. Continue reading »
The past few years have not been the best of times, professionally speaking, for Lloyd Blankfein. As CEO of Goldman Sachs, the shit storm of the financial crisis landed on his head and with it, angry protesters, 75-100 pieces of hate mail each day, lawsuits, investigations, hearings before the Congressional brain trust, calls for him to be fired and/or jailed, the title of “Worst Person in the World,” executive MBA students who think they know how to run a bank better than he does, and half man/half horse semen aficionado Matt Taibbi.
While Lloyd is much loved within 200 West and among those who can’t resist the Lloyd Face, the hate from the outside has been difficult to take. Though he’s fully aware that “there’s a little bit of ‘for better or worse’” about a gig like his, and that “you can’t be the CEO without having to do what the CEOs have to do in distressed moments,” as Blankfein’s college roommate puts it, not having coveted “a public persona,” the “vilification makes him sad.” He’s not planning on leaving the firm any time soon but it’s clear LB needs a pick me up. Sitting down with New York recently for some real talk, he floated a few wants/wishes that, if you care at about him at all, should do your part to help grant. Continue reading »
Here, have a New Yorker cartoon for your troubles.
GS Gag Order [PDF]
Related: 1-2 Joins ‘Large’ In Welfare Line
…And join Credit Suisse, where Brady Dougan promises to take full responsibility for his mistakes. At the marginally more successful, slightly less tax-evading Swiss bank in town, Callan will serve as Managing Director and head of its Global Hedge Fund Business, a position created specially for well-heeled woman. Callan’s new gig starts on September 2, which also happens to be someone‘s birthday, so hopefully she’ll be down for a joint celebration. Interestingly enough, when asked by Erin Burnett about the appointment, Jim Cramer chose to say nothing, which has never happened before. Make of that what you will.
Earlier: CFO Erin Callan, COO Joseph Gregory Out At Lehman Brothers
Corporate America has been perfecting ways of talking around awkward things like mass firings and layoffs. But it can’t lay a glove on Wall Street, where double-speak is not just a way of life, it’s an earnings strategy.
Take Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s gold standard investment bank. Despite beating its peers in performance, profits are down at Goldman and layoffs are underway. Many of those who lose their jobs will be junior bankers, called analysts, who typically serve a two year term before going on to business school or moving on to other jobs.
Goldman is letting many of its first year analysts go but they aren’t describing this as getting fired. So first year analysts who are being fired after just one year are told that the have been placed into the “accelerated one-year analyst program,” according to people familiar with the matter. It’s like skipping a grade! Well, except that you get expelled from school after you get accelerated!
Goldman Sachs could not immediately comment on this story. But we’ll update you if they do!
As we pointed out the other day, a rift has developed on Wall Street over whether access to funds from the Federal Reserve is worth the price of increased regulation. Lehman Brothers is reportedly willing to accept the regulation while Goldman Sachs is said to oppose it, and is willing to give up access to the new Fed facility if necessary. Tim Carney, who writes for the Washington Examiner and is the brother of one of DealBreaker’s editors, takes a look at why the investment banks have split over the issue.
These companies’ financial situations give a hint. Goldman, in its most recent quarterly report, showed a positive gross profit, as it had for the years 2007 and 2006. Lehman, meanwhile, posted a $6.6 billion gross loss last quarter.
Goldman, like the whole financial sector, has plenty of headaches, but thanks in part to its correct bet on the housing slowdown and credit crunch, it is thriving compared with its competitors. Subsidized loans will help Goldman, but the weaker sisters in the industry need them more. Regulations may stabilize Goldman’s position, but they will keep Goldman from improving that position.
Deal or no deal? [Washington Examiner]
The $13.25 billion acquisition of Electronic Data Systems by Hewlett-Packard—the ninth largest tech deal ever, according to DealLogic—has moved the M&A league table standings, DealJournal Heidi Moore reports. Before the deal was announced, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley led this year’s ranking from advising technology companies on mergers. But neither bank has a role in the H-P deal, pushing them down in the rankings
“Goldman ranked first with $14 billion of announced deals to its credit this year, and Morgan Stanley ranked second with $11 billion according to investment-banking research provider Dealogic,” Moore writes. “But now, Goldman is in third place, displaced by Lehman Brothers and J.P. Morgan. Lehman has jumped from fifth to first place with $17 billion of deals to its credit, while J.P. Morgan — which, just yesterday, languished in seventh place with only about $2.2 billion of tech deals to its credit — has vaulted to second place in the rankings from seventh place. Morgan Stanley has fallen to No. 5.”
Citigroup and Evercore Partners advised Electronic Data on the deal. J.P. Morgan Chase and Lehman Brothers advised Hewlett-Packard.
Hewlett-Packard: The Advisers [Deal Journal]
Other news media wait until the market closes before reporting on trader chatter and market rumors because they don’t think you are smart enough to handle the half-truths. We have more faith in our readers. So we bring it to you straight and without condescending censorship
Today the chatter is about Goldman Sachs. People say lots of things, but today they are saying that Goldman will announce a major stock buyback tonight after the market closes. They’re even putting a number on it: $8 billion. Of course, the people saying this are in no condition to know and last week they probably would have told you that Lehman Brothers would be worth $2 on Monday. (But a couple weeks before that they were right about Bear Stearns.) Make of it what you will.
A side note: it’s kind of nice to report on bullish rumors about an investment bank. When was the last this happened?
Goldman Sachs didn’t comment on this because they wouldn’t anyway so we didn’t call them.
Goldman Sachs, which announced this morning that it made $1.5 billion last quarter, has quietly been telling some employees to prepare for another round of layoffs. The job cuts are scheduled for mid-April, and will include some senior positions which have not been large cash generators, according to a person familiar with the matter. Goldman, which has weathered the storm of the credit crunch better than many competitors, has not had anywhere near the level of job cuts that rival firms, such as Lehman Brothers, have had.
Goldman Sachs was not asked to confirm this report.
Lloyd Craig Blankfein, people! Is the whole world going to shit? The following is absolutely outrageous. And I think we all know who’s to blame. (Starts with an ‘E,’ ends with a ‘liot Spitzer fucked a hooker and this is the fallout.’)
To: All London GS
Subject: Policy Changes – Evening Meals and Taxis
Following a firmwide review of our policy on evening meals and taxis,we have decided to implement the following changes, which will become effective today.
Evening Meals
From today, the Petershill cafeteria will open in the evening from 7 pm to 9 pm (6.30 pm to 8 pm on Fridays) in line with the current opening hours at River Court. On completion of the current refurbishment work in early April, the Christchurch Court cafeteria will also open at these times.
Given these extended hours of cafeteria operation and the significant incremental cost of dining@mydesk, the dining@mydesk service will only be available after 10 pm (9 pm on Friday). Staff in Christchurch Court can continue to use dining@mydesk between 7.30 pm and 9 pm until the Christchurch Court cafeteria has reopened. Cafeteria meals will be reimbursable (via T&E) from 7.30 pm onwards. The maximum reimbursable amount for cafeteria meals has been adjusted to £10, to reflect the cost of a full meal within the firm’s cafeterias. Cafeteria receipts will need to be retained in order to submit a T&E for reimbursement.
Evening Taxis
The evening rolling taxi rank will continue to be available on weekdays from 6 pm to midnight, but evening taxis home will now be paid for by the firm from 10 pm (rather than 9 pm at present).
Goldman Sachs Asset Management recently fired about twenty people from two teams managing Global Alpha and Global Equity Opportunities and, according to Charlton Heston, the victims were the analysts who “do all the actual work,” as opposed to names slightly higher on the roster who, beyond being involved in poor day-to-day decision making, do jack and cost a ton to employ. If you want to be all cynical you could chalk the canning methodology up to the groups (and GS at large and, you know, the entire Street) being boys clubs whose members have each others’ backs and who won’t let their brohamsters get fired for petty little things like shitty performances, and I guess if you’re looking at it like that, then, yeah, it seems kind of bad. But that’s because you’re looking at it all wrong– these firings actually cast GSAM in a positive light, because they underscore the division’s commitment, above all, and at all times, to lose as much money as possible. Getting rid of co-head Peter Kraus the other day doesn’t really seem in line with the aformentioned bottom line, so tut tut there, but we cross our fingers that his replacement will be paid more for less competence. I don’t think we need to tell you who’s in total agreement on this one:
Continue reading »
