Daniel Harrison's Profile
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Entry: Canada Injects $419 million into overnight market
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 14, 2008 12:40PM
@1 I see what you mean by that. I figured it was worth explaining, but if it irritates everyone I won't include them.
Entry: Intel profit up 12%; beats the street
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 14, 2008 6:09PM
@2 agreed that waiting to Nov 5 is an interesting, and fundamentally sound idea.
Not one you're likely to hear from many financial advisers, either.
Entry: Steel ain't a stock
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 16, 2008 10:53AM
@6 Steel has a different weight-to-value ratio than other metals. Also, steel requires dry bulk shippers (who also carry stuff like grain, coal and iron ore).
Entry: Steel ain't a stock
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 16, 2008 11:08AM
@11 It's that the comment was querying arb opportunities in the steel market, which I was trying to show were not possible.
Entry: Steel ain't a stock
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 16, 2008 1:48PM
@17: Yes, exactly. That's the gist of this post. The question was why can't someone arb 2 different prices if you found a buyer in the area where there is more expensive stuff: ship from one loc to another and pocket the difference? The logistics just don't make it profitable.
@18: Some shippers have captains, some just provide the ships. That CAN BE and is sometimes an issue. As I say, there are not THAT many dry bulk shippers out there.
Entry: When do we hit a bottom?
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 16, 2008 4:38PM
@3 except for energy, yes
Entry: When do we hit a bottom?
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 17, 2008 12:15AM
What's the best drink after a day like this?
Entry: When do we hit a bottom?
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 17, 2008 12:35AM
SEG & Phobos --
Rioja '95 will have to suffice.
For what it's worth - and perhaps want of yet more abuse - it's interesting in the U.S. how people automatically associate a market decline with an economic decline. Granted, in a free market economy, the stock market weighs heavily on consumption etc. But of all the places I've been, I've never seen a country so obsessed with its stock market and potential ramifications on the economy.
That's of course why this country has become so economically powerful, but it can also lead to misinformation. Saying we are in "the greatest crisis since the Great Depression" for example: that's an analogy you only hear in America. And it's probably wrong, given inflation and unemployment are not in double digits, and we haven't had an official GDP decline yet.
That said, the U.S. needs someone who can manage fiscal policy with the kind of discipline that is unpopular with voters: i.e. to pay down debt. (Whoever that may be).
But because of the U.S.'s intense focus on its stock market, the rest of the world tends to make incorrect assumptions about the state of its economy when there is a market selloff. They don't understand, for instance, that every state is vastly different in resources/productivity etc. - and that THAT is the economic scenario, not the state of the Dow or S&P (or Nasdaq in 2001). This country is in a much stronger position than many realize: it's why there are so many people banging on the door to get in every year.
Entry: When do we hit a bottom?
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 17, 2008 12:51AM
SEG --
I'm saying that the US is obsessed with its stock market to a degree that other countries are not. And so it should be.
The US pioneered capital raising and a culture of retail investing in a way that beforehand, other countries only glimpsed. Britain (where I'm from), for example, was much later to adopt the investment approach, and instead tended to pile everything into deposit accounts -- which got us nowhere.
Obviously the problems we are in go beyond issues of equity valuation etc., but if you're from Thailand, for example (where my godchildren are from) -- despite the credit and stock market woes, despite the hits to the 401K's -- people are still envious of the opportunity and growth potential here. They still want to come, in any market environment. That's incredibly powerful, and can't be discounted.
Entry: When do we hit a bottom?
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 17, 2008 1:15AM
SEG -- That's very true. The Chinese "middle class" that the media so readily eulogize as bastions of the success of markets are living worse off than the lowest 1% in this country. Middle class there means you got to get out of a coal-mining town to go to Shanghai and share with five other people you don't know in the space of an apartment smaller than a studio in the East Village in Manhattan.
Assumptions that America is screwed are false -- that's what I'm saying. The US dollar will rise, big time (when the country pays down its debt); oil will fall as the myth of China's (admittedly astonishing) growth gets found out for the standard hype that it is.
That said, don't underestimate the value of gold is Asia. Gold and real estate to the Chinese are what equities are to Americans: everyday assets. Everyone on some tiny level owns them.
Everyone can of course live the US lifestyle, it'll just take much, much longer than the media lead us to believe it will.
Entry: Opening Bell: 10.20.08
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 9:18AM
@ 10 There may be a clip somewhere later today. Thanks for asking!
Entry: Opening Bell: 10.20.08
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 9:31AM
@ 3 No, I'm waiting for an official recession to be called first, instead of making up my own definition and stating it as fact.
@ 13 Given a morning with a higher newsflow, this would not have been nearly as prominent a story.
Entry: Opening Bell: 10.20.08
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 10:27AM
@15 http://in.reuters.com/article/basicIndustries/idINN1535640120080815
Entry: Blind Item
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 4:33PM
As far back as May GS said that oil may get to $200 - at the same time as forecasting a global economic downturn. It was always an odd mix of predictions.
Entry: Bulls & Bears
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 5:28PM
@ 5 these are Yiping's words, not those of my inner bitch
@ 6 Yes, just click the dealbreaker logo at the top
Entry: Bulls & Bears
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 11:45PM
@ 16 - yeah, this column is my idea, and my own reporting, although I won't take away from the fact that Bess, Joe, John etc. have built the site up to the kind of place that pivotal people want to be featured on. To be honest, that is fucking tough to do. Actually, after last week's B&B column, 2 of the guys phoned me back to say thanks since so many people had commented they saw them on DB. Which is awesome, and a great credit to the site and those who built it.
@ 23 & 23 - Thanks for your advice. This is my opinion on snark, let me know if you disagree. I think it's mainly something chicks are better at than guys, largely because we're too simple/blunt/obvious etc. Moreover, I think snark only works if you are really good at it, and I'm pretty shit at it in all honesty. I'm OK at being inadvertently funny, but snarky is not my strongest point. But the idea for an ending punchline next time is excellent - thanks!
Entry: Opening Bell: 10.23.08
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 23, 2008 7:13PM
@ 2 - Actually, when you look at what I said, it was right on the money ... "you little fucker"
Entry: Opening Bell: 10.24.08
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 24, 2008 9:46AM
@18 nope - i'll continue to offer all the views on the broker notes rather than just re-write bloomie
@19 well spotted! sorry my english dating system getting the better of me this am!
Entry: Dow Close Contest
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 24, 2008 1:44PM
@84 and 91 - Simple. Manipulating economic figures in the US assumes that the US is the only market trading in the world. So for example, if US shows imports from Japan rising 10%, then the Japanese data has to show exports to USA fulfilling that rise. re: encouraging positive newsflow, well, policymakers do do that the whole time. Many told us the economy was "fundamentally sound" only weeks ago. It only ends up hurting people.
Entry: Mitsubishi Is...Wait For It...
posted by Daniel Harrison
Oct 13, 2008 8:22AM
It was always done, I've been saying that for days. The problem is that financial journalists (and bloggers) have NO idea of how the banking system works, so they rush on the "doom and gloom" cart to get more readers. Anyone who took the time out to actually talk to the guys at Mitsubishi knew it was done yesterday!