Subprime Mortgages

Kiss_letter.jpg Aside from the weather here in NYC (let’s just say we’re looking for the pack of screeching gargoyles encircling the office), the end is nigh for the two Bear Stearns’ Funds That Must Not Be Named (mostly because their names are so freaking long). Bear Stearns wrote a love letter to fund investors saying that there’s nothing left to lose, which would be inspirational if only it were halftime. The coup de grace, apparently, was the decline in the highest rated tranches of the ABX, which sunk to record lows on Monday. Here’s the key excerpt from the letter (link in the WSJ article):

Fund managers and account executives have been informing the Funds’ investors of the significant deterioration in performance for May and June [significantly after the deterioration has taken place]. The preliminary estimates [Dr. Spock: “There appears to be no life on this planet, sir”] show there is effectively no value left for the investors in the Enhanced Leverage Fund and very little value left for investors in the High-Grade Fund [by “High-Grade” we mean D+] as of June 30, 2007. In light of these returns [always look on the bright side of liquidation, do do, do do do do do do], we will seek an orderly [think Bastille Day] wind-down of the Funds over time. This is a difficult development for investors in these Funds and is certainly uncharacteristic of BSAM’s overall strong record of performance [at BASM, we don’t make the highly leveraged hedge fund fail, we make the highly leveraged fund fail better].

The subtext of the letter is pretty much, “As many of you may know, we have been pretending that there’s still value left in these funds since we had to go public with our turmoil after the banks starting seizing our assets. We hope the market will be gentle to our share price, especially considering the fact that we gave institutional investors a little more time to bail out on at least the most highly rated CDOs before the things start getting marked to market and funds finally have to start booking losses. At least our marketing geniuses anticipated this and gave our two crappiest funds the most media unfriendly names possible.”
Some are still in denial (middle market institutions that are hanging on to some Bear shares, and those crazy Lutherans), from Bloomberg:

“For them to put up so much capital, just for reputational risk, wouldn’t make sense unless they believe they won’t lose money on it,” said Erin Archer, an analyst at Minneapolis-based Thrivent Financial for Lutherans, which owns about 200,000 Bear Stearns shares.

Remember, at Bear Stearns, “Our highest priority is to continue to earn your trust and confidence each and every day, consistent with the Firm’s proud history of achievement. As always, please contact us if we can be of service. 1-800-HOWS-MY-HEDGE-FUND.”
Subprime Uncertainty Fans Out [Wall Street Journal]
Bear Stearns Tells Fund Investors `No Value Left’ [Bloomberg]

shark-attack1.jpg The Wall Street Journal’s MarketBeat reports that the record low the riskiest tranche of the ABX index reached yesterday (44 cents on the dollar) drew attention away from the significant drop in the highest rated tranches. When the highest rated tranches of an index start to come unglued, that usually means “Jenga!” for whatever market the index represents. Yesterday, the AAA tranche of the ABX dropped from 100 to 95, and the AA tranche dropped to 88.
Bloomberg reports today that “All 15 of the so-called ABX indexes, made up of credit-default swaps on subprime mortgage bonds with ratings from AAA to BBB-, fell to records yesterday. They were little changed today.”
Insiders are speculating that a fund may be liquidating or some major mortgage-backed investors may be panicking. And when we say liquidation, we mean fire sale, in an ‘everything must go!’ move across all asset qualities. Was yesterday’s move just pre-Merrill release panic and is the ABX hanging tenuously by Merrill’s strong results? Anyone have any info? Comment or drop a line to tips at dealbreaker dot com.
Bloodbath in the ABX? [MarketBeat]

office space 1.jpg As long as the ratings agencies muse about downgrading rather than doing any actual downgrading, Portfolio Managers of large CDO pools will continue to rake in management fees on significantly overvalued assets.
Sure, these fees may be low in industry terms, meaning around 50bps, but 50bps on a few billion dollars of assets (that really isn’t worth anything close to that, as the Bear fiasco is proving) amounts to well over $10 million.
The Portfolio Managers are shrewdly aware of this. Here’s a conversation that one of our readers had with a PM of a $2.2 billion CDO pool.

Asked how he is doing, he says “nothing.” I ask, “What do you mean nothing, I hear all these stories about CDOs and losses (Bear Stearns for example)?” He shrugs and says nothing will happen until the rating agencies do something. Asked about losses, he says they are there but he doesn’t have to mark to market his portfolio until someone discovers it or the rating agencies force his hand. So his plan is to lie low and collect the management fees (and bonus) and pretend as if there are no losses.

The PM has four colleagues that split the nice $10 million collected on the 50bps management fee. All this for just hanging out, from the convo:

He says he has the best job in the world and says there is really no work to do every day. Just wait and hope that the rating agencies don’t downgrade his CDO pool and voila, at the end of the year, he and his partners can split the $10 million spoils (minus the expenses for one Park Avenue office, and a secretary).

Can You Hear Me Now?

Are you on the 10:00am S&P subprime teleconference? The S&P has its task force of David Wyss, Susan Barnes, and Patrice Jordan discussing market conditions, revisions to RMBS surveillance and new ratings methodologies. This is in reference to the following major events this morning:
8:55 *S&P CHANGES RATINGS METHODOLOGY FOR MORTGAGE-BACKED BONDS
8:55 *S&P PUTS 612 CLASSES OF SUBPRIME BONDS ON CREDITWATCH NEGATIVE
8:55 *S&P MAY CUT RATINGS ON $12 BILLION OF SUBPRIME MORTGAGE BONDS
8:53 *S&P MAY CUT 612 CLASSES OF SUBPRIME MORTGAGE BONDS TELECONFERENCE
Word from some of our readers is that so many people are wondering how the ratings agencies will react (finally!) to the subprime fallout that you can’t even listen in at the moment. At least it’s a great excuse to tell senior people if you got stuck as resident note taker. Oh well, if you miss it, here are the replay numbers:
US/Canada: 1-866-397-8265
US/All Others: 1-203-369-0540

atomic explosion - 4.jpg The London-listed $908mm Caliber Global Investment fund managed by Cambridge Place Investment Management LLP is liquidating its remaining assets and shutting down within the year. The culprit – a majority of the fund is invested in US mortgage backed securities.
Former Goldman bankers Martin Feingold and Robert Kramer founded Cambridge Place in 2002. The Caliber fund reported a $9mm Q2 loss and retained Lazard to review strategic initiatives. The strategy going forward is that there is no forward. It’s that kind of out of the box thinking that makes I-banks useful (thank you, that’ll be $3mm).
The Caliber shutdown follows another UK fund shakedown from subprime issues. Earlier this week, Queen’s Walk Investment reported a $91mm annual loss. The fund is managed by Cheyne Capital Management.
Cambridge Place’s Caliber Fund Shuts on Subprime Loss [Bloomberg]

parishilton.jpgParis Hilton analogy count with regard to subprime/Bear Stearns/CDOs: 83
Who Made The Big Bets In Subprime Lending? [CNN Money]
When CDOs Trump Paris Hilton, There’s a Problem [Bloomberg]
Looking for Contagion in All the Wrong Places [PIMCO]

AAA.jpg* 3 Paris Hilton name-checks
* “Our prim remembrance of Gidget going to Hawaii and hanging out with the beach boys seems to have been replaced in this case with an image of Heidi Fleiss setting up a floating brothel in Beverly Hills.”
* “AAA? You wooed Mr. Moody’s and Mr. Poor’s by the makeup, those six-inch hooker heels, and a ‘tramp stamp.’ Many of these good looking girls are not high-class assets worth 100 cents on the dollar.”
* “I kid the Fed Chairman” jokes.
* Pretending (?) not to know who runs Bear Stearns
* Charts
Looking for Contagion in All the Wrong Places [PIMCO]

CDOs in `Hooker Heels’ Fool Moody’s, S&P, Gross Says
[Bloomberg]