Earlier today, we discussed the upcoming bonus season and the fact that, for those who are employed by banks, it’s looking to be something of a disappointment. Numbers are estimated to be down 20-30 percent on average from last year, with fixed-income being hit the hardest. For many, it’s cause for some preemptive JO&C’ing at the desk this morning and some curling up into the fetal position this afternoon. According to Black Swan author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, however, you drying those eyes, picking yourself up off the floor and thanking your lucky stars you’re getting anything ’cause if he were in charge? You’d get no-thing. Continue reading »
black swans
At this point, Nassim N. Taleb has explained many times (1) what caused the financial crisis and (2) what will cause the next one. This is actually pretty simple stuff and as he’s sick of repeating it, we’ll summarize:
(1) the Nobel Prize Committee, and
(2) knowing things.
We learned the second part when Taleb dropped by the U.S. Congress last week to warn them away from the dangerous trap of setting up an Office of Financial Research to collect statistical data from banks and try to analyze it to reduce risk. Taleb’s prepared testimony included some polite objections to this plan:
Continue reading »
Though his schedule is extremely packed, Nassim Taleb, who knows everything there is to know about risk while Ben Bernanke knows nothing, has agreed to co-author a paper with the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets department “for the G-20 to develop ways to apply his method for identifying tail risks, or the chances of low probability, high-impact event.” Topics discussed will presumably include but not be limited to destroying the Nobel prize before it can destroy us.
And on an even more serious note, for which you should brace yourselves, Taleb has announced he will not be going to Davos this year. Why? Because he’s sick of the name dropping fame whores in attendance who don’t know anything about debt, like he does. Black Swan will be making better use of his time “at home with my fireplace and notebook and library,” where he will fix our economy while less serious people– NT hates to name names but “Rouriel Noubini” he mouths– will be in Switzerland banging economist groupies. Continue reading »
Over the last several years, people have been obsessed with determining who truly caused the financial crisis. Was it Alan Greenspan? Was it the banks? Was it the mortgage lenders? Evil short sellers? People who bought homes they couldn’t actually afford? Jimmy Cayne drug dealer? It’s up for debate and no one has yet to be unanimously, definitively blamed. Today in London, Nassim Taleb revealed the true villain, who’s been hiding in plain sight. Continue reading »
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