See, when Robert Rubin publicly scolds investors for taking on too much risk, while simultaneously using his position on Citi’s Board of Directors to urge more risk taking at the bank, a lesser financial journalist might see that as a bit of hypocrisy. Top-tier journalistic professionals understand, however, that Rubin is just highlighting that there are “investors”… and then there are “Investors.” The former, are best limited to making investment decisions with visual aids like Morningstar’s Star Rating system. The later, being, well, Rubin.
Likewise, amateur scribes might look at the mind blowing losses Citi has endued under Robin’s watch as an indicator of abject (and borderline criminal for the really amateur among the amateur) negligence. This view is colored by the fact that these same neophytes do not understand the nuances of organizational strategy and therefore fail to recognize that Mr. Rubin’s position was quite bereft of “operational responsibilities.” Professional journalists with experience in these matters will dig deeply enough in the press kit provided by Mr. Rubin to discover that the responsibility for proper execution of Mr. Rubin’s Investment counsel fell, unfortunately, to other, lesser men and women.
Finally, where as journalists recoil in shock and horror at the $115 million Mr. Rubin has earned in compensation from Citi since 1999, Journalists see that Rubin’s commitment to the firm is really demonstrated by more recent events, not those distant in memory and already spent, in any event, on the accouterments (ahem, client #8) of aged financial power in Manhattan. No, it is the recent waiver of bonus that shows Mr. Rubin’s penchant for self-sacrifice. Those pointing out that recent bonuses might well have been negative and that Mr. Rubin’s sacrifice could be seen as apparition-like probably didn’t even finish their degree in corporate communications.
Rubin, Under Fire, Defends His Role at Citi [The Wall Street Journal]
Citi Better Sleep Eventually
We cherish our readers. They send us tasty treats on a regular basis. Like the purported Citigroup termsheet:
10551985.pdf
Says one loyal reader:
While I have not seen any details around the $309bn in assets being guaranteed as part of the C transaction, I would hope that these are AAA or at least AA rated MBS. As the Fed has been lending against these types of assets under the TSLF and PDCF since at least mid September, it is a bit perplexing how the transaction makes sense. The only way I can get my arms around it is that the Fed was no longer comfortable with its advance rates against the collateral and required C to pony up what is essentially a margin call. Help me out with the logic if I am missing something but:
- C has $309bn in MBS assets. The Fed is likely advancing ~97% on these assets right now under TSLF and/or PDCF.
- Fed has reduced this advance rate from 97% to 90%, which leaves a $20bn hole (7% * $309bn)
- Fed takes $20bn in 8% preferred securities and warrants for $20bn in cash that can be used to repay the Fed to an advance rate it is comfortable with.
- Additionally, C is forced to give $7bn in additional preferred to continue to receive a non-recourse advance on these assets.
- Finally, C is charged a more punitive rate of interest on the financing of these assets at OIS + 300, which is likely 200-250 bps higher than under TSLF or PDCF, with the principal being non-recourse and the interest recourse.
Effectively, the fed went from being long 3-100 risk on $309bn of assets to being long $27bn in C preferred shares and 10-100 risk on the $309bn with a 10% risk share with C and a higher interest rate. I still don’t understand how this is a good deal for C or any of the other banks other than it says that the Fed is serious about not letting the whole system fail (which we knew already).
Bloomberg is trying to play off the biggest two day market gain since 1987 on the Citirescue. Hogwash, we say. Only the revealing of Obama’s Economic Superfriends could have such an impact. 58% gain on a loan guarantee? Next think you know Bloomberg will be claiming Latin American Debt Forgiveness is responsible for emerging market recoveries.
U.S. Stocks Post Biggest Two-Day Rally Since 1987 on Citigroup [Bloomberg]
Dealbreaker Weekend Edition: Citi Deal Slipping? Or Opportunistic Use Of Nikkei Holiday?
By Equity PrivateCracks are emerging in the fabric of the Citi deal. First off, there has been no let-up at all in the number of Pizza deliveries per hour (a critical deal closing metric, of course: deal closure probability rises as pizza delivery rate falls) amid rumors that the largest… sovereign… wealth… fund… ev-AH… is losing interest in Citi. But, savvy as they are, could the government just be playing hardball, stretching out the brinkmanship by taking advantage of the Japanese trading holiday.
The Nikkei is, obviously, unchanged, owing to that holiday, with Australia showing early volatility, but currently trading flat.
Since there is very little entertainment to be had watching that slow moving train wreck, we will be watching S&P 500 index futures when Obama announces his financial EMT squad tonight. At present they are trading around 798, with Dow futures pressing 8069 upward. A thin and dangerous day likely.
