cows

And the winner of dinner at Peter Luger plus a limited edition Dealbreaker banker bag, sure to make you the envy of your colleagues, family, friends, and foes is: Read more »

All of you went to sleep last night dreaming about what it would be like to walk around with a Dealbreaker banker bag slung across your shoulder; how people would start looking at you differently; how your life would change. And only a few of you are actually in a position to potentially see that dream realized. Read more »

And you don’t want that on your conscience. Read more »

Rumors began to circulate late last year that Jefferies could be acquired by a large bank, something that would surely result in layoffs. “When banks buy other banks, people lose their jobs,” said Richard Lipstein, managing director at executive search firm Gilbert Tweed Associates. “If you look at a sale of an investment bank, this is as close to perfect as it gets.” Leucadia, often compared to Berkshire Hathaway for its diverse set of holdings, already owns a 28% stake in Jefferies, meaning it intimately knows the firm and its culture, and believes in its direction, Lipstein said…As for layoffs, “there likely won’t be any,” said one headhunter who works with Jefferies and requested anonymity. “Now they’ll have a stronger balance sheet, and the ability to pick up slack where other firms have left off,” said the recruiter. [eF, earlier]

Choice number one: everyone starts earning more money for the bank, following an exhilarating pep rally run by Corbat in the cafeteria involving senior executives shooting Citi swag into the crowd out of tee-shirt guns, cheerleaders, and a Spartacus Workout demo with before/after shots of MC, meant to inspire people and show them what they’re capable of if they really put their minds to something. Choice number two: Bank of America-style layoffs. Read more »

Let’s not stop there with the clichés.* Here’s a great one: “never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.” In applied form: your model of all the AAA mortgage CDOs that were maybe not so AAA could be “ratings agencies were paid by banks so they were venal and corrupt and sold the banks good ratings on products they knew were bad.” Or it could be “ratings agencies created medium-dumb criteria to make a thing be AAA, and bankers who were smarter than medium-dumb arbed those criteria to make more things be AAA than should have been AAA.” The incentives model has good economic theory behind it, and some suggestive evidence; the stupidity model has that lovely cliché but also some evidence, about which more later.

But first hilarious contrarian ratings agency Egan-Jones is in trouble: Read more »

Fitch released a report today saying “ohmygod banks Europe” and the market went down and maybe there’s a causal link, whatever.

The report mostly takes notice of US banks’ European exposures in general, and the mystery of net versus gross derivatives exposure in particular, in which one asks “if Bank A sells CDS on $100bn of Italian debt to Bank B, and buys CDS on $100bn of Italian debt from Bank C, then when things go pear-shaped is it on the hook for zero (because it has no ‘net exposure’) or $100bn (because Bank C goes belly-up) or somewhere in between (because of collateral, sub-1 correlations, etc.)?”

It’s an important question: net exposures are manageable, gross exposures are terrifying, and there are legitimate questions about whether in a stress case the netting could break down. Various people who are smarter than me have tried to triangulate around parts of the answer using public data.

I don’t know the answer and doubt I’ll find out, though my gut is that netting should kind of sort of mostly work (I find Graph 5B of this, and the definition of “bilateral netting,” oddly comforting). What troubles me today, though, is that Fitch has no clearer answer than I do. Read more »

“A friend of mine is actually the largest owner of agricultural land in Uruguay,” said the hedge fund manager. “He’s a year older than I am. [My fund] is somewhere [around] the 15th-largest farmers in America right now.”…When asked if this is an end-of-the-world situation, the hedge fund manager replied: “It really is. I tell my fiancée this from time to time, and I’ve stopped telling her this, because it’s not the most pleasant thought.” He pauses for a moment. “We just can’t keep living the way we’re living. It’ll end within our lifetime. We’re just going to run out of certain things. We’ll just have to learn how to adjust.” [NYO]