The recession may be over, but that doesn’t mean governments should stop pouring trillions into their economies.
A pair of policymakers from both sides of the Atlantic want to keep those stimulus dollars (and euros and pounds) rolling. James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed president who’s had an awful lot to say these days, wants to see the Fed’s ability to buy mortgage-backed securities and bonds continue. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn agrees that it is way too early to give up on stimulus policies.
Fed
Put down the emasculators, Chris Dodd. Your plan to geld Ben Bernanke just hit a serious roadblock.
President Barack Obama sent out some of his lesser minions to make clear he wants his Federal Reserve to remain virile and whole, whether or not it’s an “abysmal failure” as a bank regulator. While Dodd says his bill would “enhance” the Fed, it very clearly does not want to swallow a pill that would strip it of its power over banks and consumer finances.
The White House doesn’t want it to, either. The amazingly-named Austan Goolsbee warned that cutting off the Fed’s cutting off the Fed “can, if you do it wrong, get into a left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing kind of problem in a crisis.” In other words, don’t leave the right hand without anything to do.
Well, here’s a fun twist to Sen. Chris Dodd’s proposal to castrate the Federal Reserve: Big Ben Bernanke is set to travel to the Hill at some point after Thanksgiving for a few rounds with the gentleman from Connecticut, who heads the committee considering Bernanke’s renomination as chairman of the soon-to-be-inconsequential Fed.
Now, Dodd is saying all the right things, telling Bernanke he’s “doing a terrific job” and that his bid to give most of the Fed’s power to others is “not about individuals and personalities.” But then he turns around and says Ben’s Boys have been an “abysmal failure” when it comes to regulating banks.
One of Bernanke’s minions has already spoken out against doing anything to trim the Fed’s authority, with the Kansas City branch warning that messing with the F.R. “could lead to delays or second-guessing of supervisory recommendations and greater political interference.” And it was talking about Rep. Barney Frank’s proposals for financial regulation reform, which don’t go nearly as far as Dodd’s in cutting the Fed down to size.
The Federal Reserve has been quietly pressuring the Treasury Department not to adopt a rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that would wipe out the value of their preferred shares, according to a source familiar with the matter. The Fed fears that any move that hurt the preferred could worsen the crisis in regional banks that is already under way.
At issue is $36 billion of preferred stock issued by Fannie and Freddie. Under several versions of widely discussed rescue plans for the mortgage giants, the US government would take a new preferred stake in the companies, subordinating or perhaps wholly eliminating the existing preferred. Critics of Fannie and Freddie believe such a move would be necessary to punish excessive risk taking by the companies and avoid creating additional ‘moral hazard.’
The situation is complicated, however, by the large share of preferred stock held by regional banks, many of which are viewed as possible candidates for failure in these credit crunched times. As the Financial Times reported over the weekened regional banks and US insurers hold the majority of Fannie and Freddie’soutstanding preferred stock. The Fed has begun advocating against wiping out these shares, saying the threat to stability of the banks is greater than the ‘moral hazard’ argument, a source familiar with the matter says.
“The fear is that this bailout, if done in a punitive manner, could be costly, resulting in even more bailouts,” the source said.
Last week Moody’s cut Fannie and Freddie’s preferred stock ratings from A to Baa3 on based on the uncertainty of how they would be treated in a rescue plan from the Treasury. That move could add to the need for the Treasury to take action soon, before banks are forced to report write-downs on the value of these lower-rated preferred shares. At the same time, the new pressure from the Fed to avoid wiping out the shares may stall an agreement on what form the intervention should take.
Bill Gross just appeared on CNBC to crush the rumor that Pimco was diminishing its exposure to Lehman Brothers either by reducing its trading positions with Lehman or reducing any investment in Lehman. In his comments he said that Pimco’s willingness to continue to deal with Lehman Brothers and other potentially troubled securities firms is influenced by the Federal Reserve’s “temporary” broker-dealer discount window.
Gross said that the discount window takes away any solvency risk on the part of Lehman, although he said that doubts about the business model of investment banks is most likely depressing Lehman’s price. The reduction of leverage across Wall Street and the decline of businesses that were, in essence, dependent on a booming real estate market and attendant mortgage boom has raised serious questions about the future profits of investment banks.
Today the Federal Reserve and the SEC signed the memorandum of understanding that would expand their information-sharing and cooperation along the lines of Henry Paulson’s “Blueprint” for regulatory reform. The agreement is designed to bridge the gaps currently in the oversight structure, notably by allowing Bernanke to see the positions and leverage of financial firms.
In exchange, he gives Cox’s SEC information on commercial banks’ health as it impacts their operations in capital markets as well as general assessments of market stability to give the SEC better idea of whether there is trouble ahead.
Normally the Fed only has remit over commercial banks, although it gained a supervisory role over the firms for the duration that the Fed’s window is open to them. With the MOU signed, Bernanke will have permanent access to information about all financial firms. This marks a significant step towards implementing Paulson’s Blueprint, which gives the Fed primary oversight over financial firms. Sources familiar with the negotiations say that the agreement is probably the furthest reform possible without a new legislative mandate. The SEC seems to be very passive about the Fed moving in on its regulatory territory.
Hank Paulson appears quite happy about the final form of the MOU, declaring it “consistent with the long-term vision of Treasury’s Blueprint for a Modernized Regulatory Structure.” He comments that it “should help inform future decisions” about modernizing the labyrinthine regulatory structure. Despite the political impossibility of passing the Blueprint through Congress during his tenure, it looks as if Paulson has ensured its implementation anyway.
-senior Kremlinologist Andrew
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politics
Cox to Bernanke and Paulson: “How Come You Guys Don’t Call Anymore?”
By DealbreakerSEC chair Christopher Cox missed the 5am conference call when Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson decided that the Fed would lend funds to rescue Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, the Wall Street Journal reports on today’s front page. The call’s time changed and no one bothered to tell Cox, who didn’t know until he came into the office a few hours later.
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