laying off bets
Summertime, and the livin’ is easy. The NBA is through its first round of playoffs, there hasn’t been a college board of a hundred games in over two months, and football is so far away that HBO still has a casting call out for Hard Knocks. Baseball’s the main attraction, and baseball bettors are gentlemen and so old school the periodic table only has about 50 elements.
How did we get here? It was one of those darkest-before-the-dawn moments, that moment that feels like it’s darkest-before-it’s-totally-black. I strolled in on the last day of the NBA regular season, a Thursday, fashionably late. He asked me where the hell I had been.
I always show up late on summer Thursdays, and leave early. There’s little baseball, and little else. But Faithful Assistant pointed to a screen and said “I’m fucking buried on the Wizards game”.
The Washington Wizards are a bad basketball team. They were matched up against the Miami Heat, a very good basketball team. The Heat have LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and that guy who Shaq said looks like Ru Paul. Except the market said the Heat didn’t give a flying fuck about that game, and the Wizards were 8-point favorites.
I asked him if maybe the Heat were the favorites. No, said Faithful Assistant, it was the Wizards. And our clients, all of whom fancy themselves smarter than the average bear, had bet $25K on the Wizards, -7.5, -8, -8.5, -9.5.
So dump it, I said. We can lay off 50K with one phone call, usually more. “I can’t. He’s got jury duty.”
What was this world coming to, bookmakers being summoned to sit on juries. So I told him to keep calling every half hour or so. In the meantime I’d handle any more Wizards bets myself.
They kept calling for the Wizards. Over and over and over again. The market was -8, and I was dealing it -10 and getting buckets of abuse. “-10? Get outta here. ESPN says they’re -8.” I quickly broke my clientele into two groups.
The clients I didn’t care about, I told them “OK, fine. Call up ESPN and give them your bet.” Some of them screamed. Several questioned my parentage. Most of them laid -10.
My better clients got better treatment. I explained how the book was hopelessly one-sided and my layoff guy was “in court”. (I let them imagine he was the guy in the orange jumpsuit, not somebody who would be leaving by the front door.) I took their bet at -10, but told them that if and when my guy came through, I’d call them back and give them the -8. They thanked me like I was doing them a favor. Great. The first people who weren’t angry all day.
The pros called too. One nibbled on the Heat +8 at even money, but the rest passed.
Court let out at 4:30. My guy didn’t make the jury: something about his wife’s job getting in the way. He took our bet for all we could eat at -7.5 and I started calling the clients back changing their -10 to not -8 but -7.5. People were thanking me as if I’d given them a kidney.
Faithful Assistant’s quick tally when the game tipped off saw him scream “We cannot lose!”
I pointed out that while we would indeed win money, that wasn’t the same as being invulnerable. For the sake of peace, love, and client happiness, we needed these lowly Wizards to win by a pile. Happy customers keep coming back, and there’d be no talk of conspiracies, fixed games off funny betting lines, and so on.
The Wizards rolled. Up by 25 at half, they cruised to a 34-point win. The Heat played their B team all night. (The Tepid?) No LeBron, no Wade, no Ru Paul, no problem. The clients were ecstatic. One of them even sent us flash-frozen steaks.
It’s actually helped us change the summer baseball operation. Now when people call up looking for a team at such-and-such a price, if we don’t have it and they’re willing to leave the order open, we take the order and call them back when we fill it. A good client now calls us his “betting con-au-pairs”. I think he means “concierges”, but I don’t speak French. Whatever. It’s working out.
The more frequently you monitor your portfolio, the more likely you are to observe a loss.
This is likely to cause short-sighted decisions and could hurt your investment performance.
If you are checking your portfolio more than once per quarter, you’re doing it too much.
Click to read more.
Dan Egan, Betterment Director of Behavioral Finance and Investing