New Jersey’s move to take out a short-term $2.25 billion loan to pay its bills is symbolic of how difficult state and municipal financing will be in the year ahead, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Tuesday…she said these types of moves will be mere warning shots as states approve their spending plans for the fiscal year ahead—running from July 1 to June 30—and balance those budgets by cutting local aid. “That’s what’s really going to hurt. So the pain of the states is just upon us,” said Whitney. “What you’ll see now is as the states are submitting final budgets, you’ll see the real pain at the municipal level start happening July 1. That will intensify and that’s where you’ll see the fallout.”"That’s what’s really going to hurt. So the pain of the states is just upon us,” said Whitney. “What you’ll see now is as the states are submitting final budgets, you’ll see the real pain at the municipal level start happening July 1. That will intensify and that’s where you’ll see the fallout.” [CNBC]
muni bonds
Meredith Whitney: “I have more conviction on the municipal bond call than I’ve had on any single thing in my career”
By Bess Levin
Last fall, Meredith Whitney made a prediction. Perhaps you remember it? It was part of a report called “Tragedy of the Commons,” wherein the analyst said that there would be “hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth” of municipal-bond defaults a’ coming. While some agreed with her, a vocal contingent did not. Charlie Gasparino, for instance, said that in his infinite wisdom, Whitney’s call suggested she “had been lobotomized.” Now, after several months and dozens of calls to the cops to request they remove Chaz, standing on her lawn yelling “Show me your books, Whitney!”, does MW stand by her analysis? You bet your ass she does and you what to know another thing? She welcomes the haters. Continue reading »
SEC Charges UBS With “Rigging At Least 100 Municipal Bond Reinvestment Transactions In 36 States”
By Bess Levin
For any banks looking to do the same, officials describe their complaint against the Swiss bank as a “how to guide for bid-rigging and securities fraud.” Continue reading »
This much they promise you. Continue reading »
Alleged Budet Problems Among U.S. States And Municipalities So Totally Exaggerated, Says Report
By Bess LevinYou can count the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities on Team Lebenthal. Continue reading »
Alexandra & James, the Lebenthal’s family wealth advisory business, continues to recommend that its clients buy munis. There are some cities and states which the firm avoids, but Lebenthal continues to recommend double-A and triple-A bonds. Investors should not sell, she added, regardless of Whitney’s warnings.”I don’t dispute her knowledge of the investment banks, but she is not a municipal bond expert,” Lebenthal said. “I would put any muni analyst in a room with her — on TV, outside in the school yard — and see who comes out ahead.” [Reuters via BI]
Mark Zaino, a former UBS trader who worked on the firm’s derivatives and municipal securities desk, pleaded guilty to fraud and conspiracy charges today in the wide-ranging investigation into sham auctions and bid rigging in financial products sold to municipalities.
Zaino is the first banker to plead guilty to charges and he has agreed to cooperate with investigators. Another banker at Bank of America, who participated in the massive bid-rigging scheme, is also providing information to the Feds about the scam. Continue reading »
If you thought the SEC’s charges against Goldman Sachs poured fuel on an already-raging populace fire, Wall Street’s involvement in a massive bid rigging scandal in the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market will fan the flames even more.
Earlier this month, we heard about an SEC investigation of conflicts of interest at big banks that bought credit default swaps on muni bonds they sold to state and local governments. But Bloomberg is out with a big investigative piece today about a massive bid-rigging scandal in the muni market that, if true, bilked 160 state agencies, local governments and non-profits out of hundreds of millions of dollars. Continue reading »
With tax receipts down and unemployment up. the brave souls at Ambac tried to pick now as an opportunistic time to launch Everspan Financial Guarantee Corp,, a bond insurer focused on wrapping municipal and public purpose debt. While Ambac thought feel good fiscal stories like the ones playing out in California would entice investors to fund their well timed venture, the lack of people willing to burn money at this stage has put the project on hold.
Ambac Delays Launch of Muni Unit [WSJ]
A few months ago, we beat up a couple of Portfolio writers on the subject of municipal bond insurance until it got so easy we started to feel bad for them. Their contention was that bond insurance was a scam perpetrated by a conspiracy of investment bankers, ratings agencies and insurance companies. We argued that bond insurance persisted because of genuine market demand for lower risk investments.
At the heart of the Portfolio position, however, was a genuinely important insight: municipal bond default rates were so low that insuring the bonds seems irrational. Do you really need to purchase insurance for a class of bonds that have a 0.5% historical default rate?
An article by one of favorite New York Times writers, John Tierney, points out that irrationally insuring against small risks is not confined to muni bonds. “We buy insurance not just for peace of mind or to protect ourselves financially, but because we share the ancient Greeks’ instinct for appeasing the gods,” he writes.
