predictions

  • 12 Nov 2013 at 3:48 PM

Larry Fink Puts Euro In His Ten-Year Death Pool

The euro could be in danger of disappearing within the next decade if France does not continue pushing economic reforms, BlackRock Capital boss Larry Fink said Tuesday. Fink expressed his concern about the health of one of Europe’s largest economies at The New York Times’s DealBook Conference, mentioning France’s recent downgrade by Standard & Poor’s. “I don’t think in 10 years time we can have a euro if we don’t have a strong France and a strong Germany,” he said in an interview shown on CNBC. “It’s all predicated on two very strong countries and the competitiveness of France is still deteriorating.” [CNBC]

Stock market analyst Tom DeMark spends many weekends in his home office in Scottsdale, Ariz., pondering the fate of the markets. The founder of Market Studies studies the price movements of stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and indices to try to determine where things may be headed, and investors pay for the privilege of knowing his thoughts. DeMark has thousands of subscribers to his company’s service through Bloomberg, and he has served as a consultant to Leon Cooperman and Paul Tudor Jones in the past. His only personal client at the moment is SAC Capital founder Steven Cohen, who has retained DeMark for 15 years as a special adviser…This past weekend, DeMark says, his prognostications for the stock market started to look rather bleak. His Dow Jones Index chart covering the period from May 2012 to the present seems to be tracking, almost precisely, the months leading up to the 1929 stock market crash. [BusinessWeek]

Let the outflow begin: as of last week, headhunters say UBS’s investment banking staff have banked their (allegedly paltry) cash bonuses for 2012 and are ready and willing to leave the bank. “Cash bonuses hit their accounts on March 25th,” one fixed income headhunter told us, speaking on condition of anonymity. “A lot of UBS fixed income people are trying to leave and already under offer. You will see around 20% of their fixed income people leaving over rest of this year,” he predicted. [eF]

He’s calling it now. Read more »

Dennis Gartman, publisher of the widely-read Gartman Letter, is predicting that Mitt Romney will win the presidential election, according his latest newsletter. Not only does Gartman think that Romney has a chance of winning the election, but he believes he can win “quite handily.” [...] Still, Gartman points out that he could be “terribly wrong” with his prediction. [Clusterstock, related]

  • 09 Oct 2012 at 4:46 PM

Bonus Watch ’12: Now With Less Cash

According to “revenue compensation trends,” though good vibes and happy thoughts could prove them wrong. Read more »

Each year, after a long and very comprehensive background check, a lucky group of Goldman employees are abducted from their desks, blindfolded, gagged, and led by candlelight through a dark hallway and into a subterranean conference room. Standing on the table before them are Lloyd Blankfein, Gary Cohn and the rest of the management committee, who ask if they are prepared to pledge their devotion to the firm above all else. Those who agree have their nether regions dipped in a vat of gold and, at the stroke of midnight, are inducted into the Brotherhood of the Sach. While there are many ways that becoming a member of the club will change one’s life, the most important one involves the partaking of astronomical profits on payday. As a result, when people are not invited to join the group, they tend to get very upset. For instance, hedge fund manager David Tepper, who became a billionaire many times over after leaving the firm, was still so upset about the snub twenty years later that he bought and bulldozed the house of the guy who passed him over. Others probably wouldn’t have even gone to the trouble of buying the place first, and operated the wrecking ball themselves. Which is why we say in full seriousness that the Partnership Committee might want to watch its back this year. Read more »