specious indicators

The sight of a big, round number gets traders so excited that they go ahead and screw it up right away. Read more »

In two-and-a-half weeks, a horse will try to win that most elusive of sporting accolades: the Triple Crown. Now, this may not seem particularly likely, given that it’s been 35 years since a horse was able to run the equine gauntlet, nor particularly relevant, since obviously sporting contests have no impact on financial markets.

But what if they do? We’re already in some serious trouble when it comes to athletic indicators, what with the Red Sox winning, the 49ers losing and February’s lose-lose Super Bowl. Can markets already making David Tepper’s brass balls look for a safe place to hide handle a first-time-since-1978 bullshit market bellweather? Read more »

Analytic Investors’ patented contrarian return-on-investment Super Bowl model missed only once, when the Giants beat the Patriots—and not the time you’re thinking of. Its analysis is telling it that Peyton Manning and the Broncos are a sure thing to win by at least a field goal, good enough to cover the point spread and make you as much money as you are willing to wager.

This year’s Super Bowl matchup features the lower-alpha Denver Broncos (4.6%) against the higher-alpha Seattle Seahawks (13.7%). As noted previously, we have found evidence that lower-alpha teams in the regular season tend to be undervalued throughout the post- season. Thus, as current 2-point favorites, we think Peyton Manning & Co. will overcome Richard Sherman’s arrogance to win this one by at least a field goal.

You might want to take those winnings and short a few indices with them, because of the tried-and-sometimes-true “NFC Super Bowl champion equals good year for stocks” indicator. On the other hand, the “Broncos winning the Super Bowl is good for the market” indicator might lead you to do otherwise. Read more »

For the sportingly superstitious among you, it is apparently vital that the San Francisco 49ers emerge victorious in Seattle Sunday evening if the markets are to have any hope of counteracting the Red Sox hex. Read more »