sure things

Goldman Sachs Just Wants A Winner

Assessing the cost of the place.Lloyd Blankfein may have a direct line to the Big Guy Upstairs, but he seems to have been withholding some crucial information in recent years, based on certain bets made by GS. That Romney character is not President of the United States, Goldman’s best check-writing efforts notwithstanding, and Brazil is rather emphatically not sporting a sixth star on their soccer jerseys these days. But if the polls are right—and, really, when are they not?—Goldman won’t be backing the wrong horse this time around. Read more »

Analytic Investors’ patented contrarian return-on-investment Super Bowl model missed only once, when the Giants beat the Patriots—and not the time you’re thinking of. Its analysis is telling it that Peyton Manning and the Broncos are a sure thing to win by at least a field goal, good enough to cover the point spread and make you as much money as you are willing to wager.

This year’s Super Bowl matchup features the lower-alpha Denver Broncos (4.6%) against the higher-alpha Seattle Seahawks (13.7%). As noted previously, we have found evidence that lower-alpha teams in the regular season tend to be undervalued throughout the post- season. Thus, as current 2-point favorites, we think Peyton Manning & Co. will overcome Richard Sherman’s arrogance to win this one by at least a field goal.

You might want to take those winnings and short a few indices with them, because of the tried-and-sometimes-true “NFC Super Bowl champion equals good year for stocks” indicator. On the other hand, the “Broncos winning the Super Bowl is good for the market” indicator might lead you to do otherwise. Read more »