Treasuries

Alea points out that 5 year CDS spreads on Treasuries are alarming. (82 basis points). Discuss.

  • 16 Jan 2009 at 11:57 AM

The Credit Perspective

The Across the Curve blog often has insightful and potent analysis, with a focus on credit markets that reveals some real expertise in the area. Today, however, its author, originally a weak supporter of government intervention, has made a rather public about-face.
We are forced to agree with him. Matters are quickly getting out of hand and deeper government involvement in the essential engines of the economy, and the deficit spending required to entrench it, is looking less and less desirable by the day.

From the outset, I have always been a supporter of government intervention as a means to prevent this unique crisis from taking the system down. I have always believed that the consequences of inaction were greater than the cost of government involvement. I question that assumption now.
The bailouts began with the deal in which JPMorgan took control of Bear Stearns with government assistance and continues to this day with the government intervention in the Bank of America union with Merrill Lynch.
The Federal government will now be an integral part of the financial system for a very long time and will influence decision making and risk taking in that sector during the time in which taxpayers are a partner in those businesses.
I now think that we would have been better off with some truly cathartic event which would have curbed the animal spirits of traders but which would have established a basis for a market prescribed recovery. Succinctly stated, the government is not in the business of taking risk and I would argue is in the business of risk avoidance.
In retrospect, the commonweal would have been better served had nature taken its course and allowed for capitalism to travel its natural course. I fear that this new course has placed on us a path to a very slow recovery and one in which innovation and risk taking will be viewed through the narrow and ill begotten prism of some bureaucrat.

Some Opening Comments [Across The Curve]

  • 26 Nov 2008 at 10:23 AM

Broken?

If you want a measure of:
A. How broken the credit markets are, or;
B. How totally fucked we are,
The fact that credit default swaps for 10-year protection on U.S. government debt have jumped to 56 points is a good candidate. Which one is really at work here, A or B is anyone’s guess.

“There is a lot more money to be spent and it is not clear how it is going to be financed,” said Tim Brunne, a Munich-based credit strategist at UniCredit SpA. “Credit spreads don’t reflect expectation of default, just the uncertainty over the enormous cost to the government.” [emphasis ours]

Yeah, we don’t get that quote either.

The Fed’s new plan to kick-start markets for loans to students, car buyers, credit-card borrowers and small businesses means it will be taking on credit risk by buying debt. The central bank pledged to purchase as much as $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities as well as up to $100 billion in direct debt of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the world’s two largest mortgage buyers, and Federal Home Loan Banks.

Treasury Credit Swaps Soar to Record on New $800 Billion Pledge [Bloomberg via Alea]

  • 04 Sep 2008 at 4:37 PM

Mortgage Spreads Tighten

Spread on mortgage backed securities over Treasuries tightened today, according to John Jansen at Across The Curve.

Mortgages are closing about 6 ticks tighter to Treasuries and about 3 basis points tighter to swaps.One dealer described the flows as “chunky”. The same dealer noted that the buyers today were from the genus “long term”. Some profit taking emerged late in the day but MBS held its gains.
The move tighter in MBS is especially impressive in light of the stock market meltdown. In the recent past that was a formula for spread widening. The price action today is indicative of broad based buying. It will be interesting to see if the spread improvement can be maintained if stocks should have a Friday meltdown tomorrow.

We’re actually not that surprised by this, given Bill Gross’s words today that Pimco was buying mortgages and the speculation that he may be trying to force the hand of the Treasury into a bailout scenario. Seems like a perfect recipe for an equity decline and a MBS climb.
MBS [Across The Curve]